Thread by @DeanMThomson

"Let us demonstrate, with cool heads & patient persuasion that Scotland is ready" Ms Sturgeon, 28th Nov 2020, STV

A lot has happened since the FM that, how has the 'patient persuasion' on independence progressed?

➡️What of the polls?
➡️What of the economic case for indy?
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1⃣ What of the polls?

A polling average since beginning of April reveals 46% against independence & 45% in favour.

But if we take 10 most recent polls, no lead extends to 47% opposed & 44% in favour. At same time, the number of undecideds has remained at around 9% of pop
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If anything Nicola Sturgeon's 'patient persuasion' is indeed persuading people, but of the merits of the UK as compared to the weak case for scexit.

A regular 'yes' lead has by this point largely disappeared in favour of remaining in the UK.
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2⃣ What of the economic case for independence?

The FM's 'patient persuasion' isn't working, and it's undoubtedly because:

▪️The SNP leadership has failed to update their prospectus post brexit
▪️SNP economic proposals don't make the remotest sense
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➡️'Sterlingisation' & 'borrowing money' for QE?

Nicola Sturgeon's proposals for an independent Scotland consists of an obvious massive contradiction. Her 'Sustainable Growth Commission report' (which the FM commissioned) advocated an unofficial currency union with rUK.
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'Sterlingisation' is a proposal whereby an independent Scotland would for an indeterminate period of time unofficially use the Pound Sterling.
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QE involves a central bank purchasing at scale government bonds or other financial assets in order to inject money into the economy to expand economic activity.
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The quicker among you will already have joined the dots here. How could an independent Scotland, with no central bank (Sterlingisation) engage in its own QE?
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In 2014 the 'what currency would you have' debate was partly about precisely this. That the SNP leadership *still* can't explain to us how they'd get round this sort of problem has left Alistair Darling's 'what currency would we have' line hanging uncomfortably out there.
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➡️No central bank? No accession to the EU.

If we take a look at chapter Chapter 17 of the Aquis Communinitaire, we can read “economic and monetary policy contains specific rules requiring the independence of central banks in Member States”.
[10/16]

No Scottish central bank would at best highly complicate any attempt at EU accession. At worst, it would render any attempt impossible.

Remember the SNP are proposing an iScotland which would *NOT* be independent regarding monetary policy.
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➡️Andrew Wilson's claims that the covid crisis proves an iScotland could easily and cheaply finance its huge deficit are a total nonsense

iScotland would have severed its relationship with Bank of England (BoE) in 2014. We would have had no central bank (Sterlingisation)
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But the UK Government’s net bond issuance in 2020 was essentially snapped up by the BoE. The BoE played a massively critical role in purchasing the UK debt.

iScotland post 2014, engaging in Sterlingisation (no central bank) would have failed to finance covid debt.
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But don't take my word for this, here's the Financial Times revealing the critical role of the BoE in purchasing UK Gov't net bond issuance in 2020.
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Conclusion:

Nicola Sturgeon's 'patient persuasion' isn't working, judging by the polls.

Perhaps it's connected to her proposals on Sterlingisation, QE, ability to borrow during covid? It's revealed an FM who doesn't know how economics works.
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Sources:

Scottish independence tracker (Daily Telegraph)
telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/05/0…

Investors sceptical over Bank of England’s QE programme (FT)
ft.com/content/f92b6c…

Economists warn of dangers to Scotland of 'sterlingisation'
insider.co.uk/news/economist…
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