Thread by @tparsi

@IgnatiusPost has a good column today where he recognizes the outbreak of MidEast diplomacy. But he underplays the main force behind this: Regional actors' conviction that the US is leaving the region and that the era of complete deference to regional partners may be ending >>

Here’s David’s column. For the US to support this embryonic yet promising diplomacy, it needs to better understand WHY it is happening now and not earlier. Hint: It is NOT because the UAE suddenly has become a force for peace as David suggests. >>

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/…

But UAE deserves credit. As David writes, UAE reached out to Iran in 2019 after attacks on UAE ships & Saudi oil fields. What David fails to mention is that the UAE did so after realizing the US wasn't going to defend the UAE. I wrote about it at the time: foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/06/the…

Prior to this, the UAE & Saudi had rejected Iranian outreach numerous times because they were under the impression that their hawkish Iran policies were backed up by US military might. Only after being dispelled of this illusion did diplomacy w/ Iran become an attractive option >

This development completely contradicted the Washington consensus that US military backing of these dictatorships was key to regional stability. Without the American military umbrella, the region would descend into chaos, we were told. >

Of course, Restrainers have long correctly predicted that on the contrary, the US’s military presence has inadvertently fueled instability and has prevented the very regional outburst of diplomacy that we now are witnessing. David makes no mention of this. >

Had the US rejected the DC consensus and shifted earlier, this outburst of regional diplomacy would likely have taken place earlier, countless lives could have been saved and the United States would have been made more safe. I write about that here: foreignpolicy.com/2021/04/29/sau…

Contrary to David’s assessment, it is not the UAE that is the hero in this drama, but rather Iraq and Oman - two countries who pushed and led backdoor diplomacy throughout this period despite efforts at times by Washington to block such regional dialogue. >

As one analyst close to the Saudi-Iranian dialogue held in Iraq told me, what prompted the Iraqis to step up and go from being messengers to mediators between Riyadh and Tehran was largely the realization that a US military exit from the region was becoming a reality.>

So what should the US do to deliberately encourage this trend rather than accidentally stumble upon it, as has been the case thus far?

First: EXPRESS SUPPORT FOR THE IRAQI GOV'S DIPLOMACY.

QI put out a report on this last year detailing a roadmap:
quincyinst.org/2020/07/17/end…

Key points:
1. Declare NOW a significant troop withdrawal by 2025-2030.
2. This withdrawal will proceed regardless of any potential stability milestones - similar to the decision in Afghanistan. Otherwise, some states may destabilize the region in order to force the US to stay.
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3. Make clear: No more deference to regional security partners. Their reckless and destabilizing activities will no longer be tolerated. The US will no longer bail them out from the messes they create. >

4. Combine this with a diplomatic surge to create a new security architecture for the region - but the US should let regional actors drive and lead this themselves.

5. To gain leverage in the region, the US should be on talking terms with all key powers in the Middle East. The policy of isolation ultimately deprives the US of diplomatic leverage.
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In conclusion, there's no guarantee that diplomacy will work. But continuing to do what we've been doing for the last 25 years while expecting different results is simply stupid.

Biden broke with that logic in Afghanistan. He should do the same for the Middle East as a whole./