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10 Apr, 6 tweets, 2 min read
/THREAD/ After the initial rounds of talks in Vienna, it’s clear the US side is moving fast. It’s convincingly signaled its willingness to lift the parts of Trump’s sanctions wall that block JCPOA-approved trade. But Iran’s ability to respond appears limited. >>
2. It should come as no surprise that Iran’s maneuverability has shrunk as the country entered its election season. We all knew this was coming. And politically, it is next-to suicide for them to take a bet on the US’s word mindful of past US betrayals. >>
3. Iran wants to be sure that the sanctions relief is holistic - that the entire cycle from selling oil, to the bank transaction, to cargo ship insurance and port acceptance - are verifiably unsanctioned. If a single element remains sanctioned, then the relief is meaningless.>>
4. US negotiators recognize Iran’s concerns and are addressing them. The proper sequencing can be worked out, but probably not if the two sides only negotiate indirectly (though @enriquemora_ and his team have been instrumental) >>
5. This is where Iran’s mistrust - however understandable - appears to have reached a point of counterproductive debilitation. At some point, the risk of inaction - because of mistrust - becomes greater than the risk of action. >>
6. I have seen no signs that Iranians aren’t willing to move forward. But Tehran should remember that the frank communication Iran and the US had in their DIRECT talks in Oman was decisive in securing the breakthrough in 2013.

It’s a risk worth taking again. //

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More from @tparsi

Trita Parsi Profile picture
12 Apr
Pro-Israeli messaging clearly aims to assert that Iran is so weakened by the Natanz attack that the US can wait Iran out - no need for diplomacy now.

This is exactly what Israel has claimed EVERY TIME the US & Iran were close to a deal.

Hence, beware of the propaganda. >>
2. Claims that Natanz can’t operate centrifuges for 9 months seem exaggerated and designed to convince the US that it shouldn’t return to the JCPOA. Or at a minimum, wait till after the elections. That would be a transparent ploy. >>
3. Given Israel’s aggression against Iran, the next Iranian President - particularly a conservative one - will feel compelled to strike back against Israel in order to dispel any notion in the West that Iran’s restraint has been due to desperation or lack of options. >>
Read 9 tweets
Trita Parsi Profile picture
2 Apr
/THREAD/ Very good and welcomed news on the #IranDeal!

Given the deadlock and the disappointing pace of movement in the first weeks of Biden’s term. Here are a few thoughts on why it finally has happened and where we will go from here.>>
2. Privately, White House officials admit that how they fumbled the Iran file earlier on (my words, not theirs). But things have changed, the message is, and the US is now moving full speed toward a JCPOA return. We are now seeing the first signs supporting this narrative. >>
3. Over the past weeks, however, mistrust between the two sides has grown. The Iranians have watched in dismay how Biden has messaged that the JCPOA is not a priority and how coordination with Israel and assuaging hawks in Congress were. >>
Read 19 tweets
Trita Parsi Profile picture
21 Mar
1. A crucial piece by @JessLee_DC on how anti-China rhetoric fuels violence against Asian-Americans.

In this thread, I add some of my own thoughts based on the Iranian-American experience.

responsiblestatecraft.org/2021/03/21/our…
2. First of all, Jess is right in the sense that the heated anti-China not only doesn't advance US interest, it also pits Americans against each other here at home. It's a lose-lose.
3. Jess rightly argues that Biden’s condemnation of the murders in GA misses the mark because it fails to acknowledge that Washington’s over-the-top rhetoric on China fuels an atmosphere of fear and anxiety, which boomerangs in the form of violence against Asian Americans.
Read 13 tweets
Trita Parsi Profile picture
28 Feb
/THREAD/ 1. Disturbing news that Iran has rejected the EU invitation for talks with the US re the JCPOA. This is a very negative and worrying development. It complicates matters further and risks jeopardizing the deal. But it is NOT surprising. Here’s why
wsj.com/articles/iran-…
2. As I wrote yesterday in the @Guardian, the idea that Iran would talk directly with the US while the US continued implementing JCPOA-busting sanctions was tried by Trump for 3 years and didn’t work then, and it likely won’t work now. theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
3. Don’t take my word for it. This is what Wendy Sherman - Trump’s Dep Secr. of State - said about it in 2019: I “would be shocked if Iran agreed to a meeting without some sanctions relief.” Sherman was right then and she is right now.>>
Read 18 tweets
Trita Parsi Profile picture
28 Jan
So diplomacy on how to revive the #IranDeal seems to have hit a roadblock even before it began. Iran & the US are publically dueling about who has to take the first step.

But we have been here before though, so there are good reasons to remain calm.

Here’s why >>
Both the US and Iran have accepted a compliance-for-compliance mechanism. Both sides simply go back into the deal with no preconditions. Then, whatever needs to be renegotiated, will be addressed when both are in compliance.

But that doesn't resolve who should go first. >>
Without providing any particular argument, Biden and Secr of State Blinken have stated that the US will go into full compliance once the Iranians have done the same. That is, Iran has to take the first step. >>
Read 15 tweets
Trita Parsi Profile picture
27 Nov 20
Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, one of Iran's most important nuclear officials, has been assassinated in Tehran. This is what we know /THREAD/:

1. Israel has assassinated numerous Iranian nuclear scientists in the past but have never been able to get to the highly protected Fakhrizadeh.
>>
2. Some Iranian reports claim it was a suicide attack, but the bullet holes in Fakhrizadeh’s car cast some doubt on that.

3. If it was a suicide bomb, then that reduces the likelihood of Israeli operatives carrying out the attack.
4. Israel has, however, used operatives from the Iranian terrorist organization the MEK in the past to conduct attacks in Iran. The MEK is the group that introduced suicide assassinations to Iran.

opiniojuris.org/2012/02/11/nbc…
Read 11 tweets

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