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13 May, 13 tweets, 5 min read
Usually, at this stage of an Israeli-Palestinian clash, the Saudis would discretely intervene behind the scenes but one can only assume Riyadh sees Gaza, anyway, as a branch office of Tehran & the IRGC and is de facto on Israel's side, for now. A useful guide here. Image
Every serious person wants a functional, rule of law, state for the Palestinians. It is hard to see how that can occur so long as Hamas run a Palestinian territory (to wit Egypt to the south considers an enemy) & use it as a base for Iranian regime's objectives against Israel.
Twenty years ago: an Israel/Palestine issue usually got most/all of the Sunni Arab world involved. In 2021, that Sunni Arab world is (much) more concerned by Iranian moves and encirclement than it is to appear to its domestic realm to be allied to Israel. This is a new world Image
I do not want to overstate this, however - a lot of 'moderate Sunni Arab' support for anything Palestinian is all show & most in power have a keen memory of what happened to Jordan's King Hussein when he allowed the Palestinians into his realm....
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Sep…
The PLO then went to Lebanon post 1970, where it would eventually help start the Lebanese civil war, fighting the Maronite Christian militias. [Ironically the local Shia community was not into militancy until Iran's Khomeini regime sent the IRGC over]
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lebanese_…
The upshot of Graun/BBC/ABC etal propaganda is that the Jews have no place in the land of their ancestors, nor did the Levantine Christians in their ancestors' place, but that the Palestinians did - and on any terms, including by violence. And so here we are - plus Iran vs KSA.
Will conclude here on one optimistic note: as Iran is mostly Persian & Shia & has historic good relations with Jews & then Israel, there is no local Iranian support for helping Sunni Arab Hamas. It is all Regime-driven. When the Mullahs Regime goes, so does support to Hamas etal.
Israel could disappear tomorrow & all the known problems with the Palestinian leadership & corruption would remain.

Israel could be led by Ghandi tomorrow & Hamas, as the IRGC's proxy if not branch office on the Mediterreanean, would still be rocketing any Jewish community.
Media in my feed is more outraged about Israel hitting Hamas targets in Gaza than any of the Sunni Arab republics or monarchies, who continue their growing relationship with Israel. Why might that be?
This is not about the Palestinians but Iran - via proxies - testing Israel's response & the level of US support for Israel in the Biden era ... as Tehran knows that a US that will not support Israel is a US that will also not support KSA/Emirates etal

Iran proving capacities (via proxies) to maintain a campaign against Israel's north & south flanks. At the same time, Iran sees Biden's admin as receptive to Iran's regional ambitions. Meanwhile, KSA/Emirates watch US non-support for Israel with worry as Iranian encirlement looms Image
This is an excellent thread by @BRyvkin with which I agree

Very sound and realistic analysis from @GIS_Reports by Prince Michael of Liechtenstein @MvLiechtenstein #Realpolitik

gisreportsonline.com/terrorism-is-i…

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More from @GrayConnolly

Gray Connolly Profile picture
20 May
Further to the above, there has been disquiet expressed by some as to the use of ‘barricades’ and ‘bayonets’ below. My usual policy is never to explain tweets but as knowledge of the Ancien Regime vs the Revolutionaries is sorely lacking, here we go. Welcome to a very Tory🧵
As many but clearly all do not know, our modern Right & Left descend from various sources, most commonly cited is the French Revolutionary aftermath, when the King’s party sat to the Right of an assembly president & those opposed, the liberals as well as the Jacobin, to the Left.
For those of us who are Anglophone, our modern politics really starts with the British Civil Wars of King vs Parliament (Celts/Gaels vs Anglo) from the 1642 attempt by King Charles to arrest parliamentarians (who fully deserved this) until, really, the defeat at Culloden in 1746.
Read 22 tweets
Gray Connolly Profile picture
19 May
If there is an explainer of how any sane US President could oppose the North American Keystone pipeline - but then facilitate the Russian Nordstream project - then would be fascinated to read it. Stuff of literal strategic dementia
This is what Trump tried to do in 2018

This is a small thread I did last October on energy and geopolitics

Read 6 tweets
Gray Connolly Profile picture
17 May
Massive puffer jacketing in Sydney this morning. Reminiscent of late Malcolmism when this was the ABC’s key demo, the Kelly O’Dwyer intifada.
That was all two years ago .... that funereal ABC special on election night in May 2019 .... the sight of Simon Birmingham - who had singlehandedly almost destroyed the Coalition in greater Sydney with Catholic schools parents - trying to say he played any part in the victory
Malcolm is entitled to some bitterness - and to a puffer jacket - but he toppled Nelson & Abbott & knew the game's rules. Right now Malcolm is the de facto opposition leader as Albanese clearly does not want the job & operates at Dave Sharma-esque low energy levels
Read 5 tweets
Gray Connolly Profile picture
16 May
Scott Morrison has done well by ignoring bleatings from corporate spivs & if he wants re-election he should ignore them now. Until there is mass vaccination, Australia cannot readily open itself to a resurgence of Covid or its variants. Crown’s first task is to protect the realm Image
Given the endless stream of expatriate woe stories, am surprised Newspoll did not poll what Australians' reaction is to expats who have not lived here for decades, suddenly, deciding, yes, they were Australians, again. I doubt it is 'let prodigal London fund manager come home'
Australia's slow pace of vaccination means our historically zealous immigration controls must remain in place. We are a massive island at the bottom of the world, we suffered terribly from Spanish Flu, and we do not have immunities from a herd experience or from vaccinations.
Read 7 tweets
Gray Connolly Profile picture
13 May
French officers at the Tomb of Napoleon
I did a whole thread on Napoleon here, that, my earlier self would be shocked that I did, but, now, even I have to defend Napoleon

This by @northumbriana on the French is one of the best pieces I have read in English - would add that the graves & history of hundreds of thousands of Australian & Empire war dead buried in France are very well taken care of a century later

Read 4 tweets
Gray Connolly Profile picture
11 May
There are 17 people in Australia who care about budget deficits and 9 of these dweebs are on TV now discussing the budget. Australia is a rule of law, first world, energy superpower. Reality is these deficits are cabfare for an economy Australia's size. #Budget2021
I yield to no one here in being conservative etc but Australia got hit hard by Covid & the Federal Government did what it is there to do in our system - inject funds to hold the society together. Conservatism 'conserves' the realm above all else.
#Budget2021
Yes, the one thing an Australian Government has trouble doing in a time of near zero interest rates and few safe harbours is .... borrow money. #Budget2021
Read 4 tweets

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