Pennsylvania state climate assessment just published
Relies centrally on RCP8.5 as BAU
Prepared by yet another "climate consultancy" that trades in RCP8.5 analyses
penncapital-star.com/energy-environ…
The PA report also confuses growth in wealth with climate trends, using the widely misused "billion dollar disaster" metric of @NOAA
I have no idea how much public money across the US is being spend on "climate consultants" to produce dodgy reports based on RCP8.5 and billion$ disasters, but it has to be an awful lot ... It's like spending public health money on homeopathy instead of vaccines
Unlike public health, where researchers would be the first to call out mis-spending on homeopathy over vaccines -- in climate, the research community is also deeply vested in RCP8.5 (& to lesser degree billion$ disasters), so blowing the whistle is ... complicated
I shouldn't be the one pointing this out

The same "climate consultant" that is being paid by the state to promote RCP8.5 in PA is also hired by the state to promote the solution to the problems posed by RCP8.5
dep.pa.gov/Citizens/clima…

This is a totally unacceptable COI
Climate change is real and important

It is not a magical phrase that eliminates the need for rigor in and scrutiny of science, policy & business

In fact, climate change is so important that such attention matters more than usual

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More from @RogerPielkeJr

10 May
“A new 46-person federal scientific integrity task force with members from more than two dozen government agencies will meet for the first time on Friday. Its mission is to look back through 2009 for areas where partisanship interfered with...”
apnews.com/article/donald…
The idea presented in this piece that the politicization of science by presidents started with Ronald Reagan is laughable

Here is an Eisenhower anecdote from our science advisors project

The politicization of science in the White House has deep roots

sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/admin/publicat… Image
Siri, what is “irony”?

President Biden’s OSTP political appointees just reassigned the climate scientist leading the US National Climate Assessment in order to present a “less nuanced” view of climate change Image
Read 4 tweets
8 May
This is an incredible story of science gone wrong

Does ocean acidification alter fish behavior? Fraud allegations create a sea of doubt sciencemag.org/news/2021/05/d…
This remarkable passage quoting an IPCC co-chair reveals a major pathology in climate science ... critique is not welcomed
Some of the language in the (overall excellent) Science article is interesting

A critique of published work is not an “attack” — it is science working exactly as it should

Who cares if the scientists are “young”?
How tall are they? What kind of shoes do they wear?
Read 6 tweets
7 May
A short 🧵 on uncontrolled orbital debris re-entry . . .

Heads Up! A Used Chinese Rocket Is Tumbling Back to Earth This Weekend. nytimes.com/2021/05/06/sci…
Back in 2001 I led a NASA workshop on the risks and benefits of (a) a controlled re-entry of the TRMM (precipitation measurement) satellite vs (b) extending the mission, collecting more data and having the satellite re-enter in uncontrolled fashion
sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/about_us/meet_…
At our workshop NASA estimated risk of injury of uncontrolled re-entry to be ~2 in 10,000 (0.021%) w/ significant uncertainties

This was based on a 35 deg orbital inclination, estimates of the debris field and estimated 2004 global population densities

sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/about_us/meet_…
Read 6 tweets
5 May
Daily dose of RCP8.5

Apocalypse porn (L) axios.com/antarctica-ice…

New Paper (R) nature.com/articles/s4158…

Of course, NDCs as BAU do not remotely equal RCP8.5 ImageImage
This is pretty poor and I'm surprised it wasn't caught in review

"a +3C scenario representing current policies" is being used here as a euphemism for RCP8.5-as-BAU

By "+3C scenario" it simply means that the scenario passes through +3C on its way to 8C in 2500

LOL
Clever ImageImage
In 2500 RCP8.5 is actually RCP12.0
🤫 Image
Read 4 tweets
4 May
Hot off the press
The latest from Vaclav Smil on the energy transition via @jpmorgan
am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-ma…
Smil on Will Ferrell and Norway's EVs
The US EV challenge is large
But if EVs can succeed in the US, they can succeed everywhere
Read 8 tweets
30 Apr
A great paper by @JessicaWeinkle
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.111…

"the extent to which the insurance industry directs, funds & validates the production & use of science for estimating risk is itself a full blown political enterprise that functions to prioritize industry interests"
Weinkle documents the co-optation of scientists by the insurance industry to create regulatory-friendly research that appears to be "independent"
The use of the resulting research by industry goes unchallenged and in fact, legitimizes the work of the (no so) "independent" experts as authoritative because industry is using it ... so a mutually reinforcing legitimization circle
Read 5 tweets

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