This is an incredible story of science gone wrong

Does ocean acidification alter fish behavior? Fraud allegations create a sea of doubt sciencemag.org/news/2021/05/d…
This remarkable passage quoting an IPCC co-chair reveals a major pathology in climate science ... critique is not welcomed
Some of the language in the (overall excellent) Science article is interesting

A critique of published work is not an “attack” — it is science working exactly as it should

Who cares if the scientists are “young”?
How tall are they? What kind of shoes do they wear?
I mean ... Clark - the leading “young” scientist is 16 years post-PhD
😎
This analysis by @sTeamTraen is absolutely devastating (linked in blog post below)
James Cook University -- the Australian uni at the center of the fish papers controversy -- also dismissed researcher Peter Ridd apparently for critiquing research on the Great Barrier Reef

A fascinating podcast on that case, now going to Aus High Court:
ipa.org.au/theheretic

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More from @RogerPielkeJr

7 May
A short 🧵 on uncontrolled orbital debris re-entry . . .

Heads Up! A Used Chinese Rocket Is Tumbling Back to Earth This Weekend. nytimes.com/2021/05/06/sci…
Back in 2001 I led a NASA workshop on the risks and benefits of (a) a controlled re-entry of the TRMM (precipitation measurement) satellite vs (b) extending the mission, collecting more data and having the satellite re-enter in uncontrolled fashion
sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/about_us/meet_…
At our workshop NASA estimated risk of injury of uncontrolled re-entry to be ~2 in 10,000 (0.021%) w/ significant uncertainties

This was based on a 35 deg orbital inclination, estimates of the debris field and estimated 2004 global population densities

sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/about_us/meet_…
Read 6 tweets
5 May
Daily dose of RCP8.5

Apocalypse porn (L) axios.com/antarctica-ice…

New Paper (R) nature.com/articles/s4158…

Of course, NDCs as BAU do not remotely equal RCP8.5 ImageImage
This is pretty poor and I'm surprised it wasn't caught in review

"a +3C scenario representing current policies" is being used here as a euphemism for RCP8.5-as-BAU

By "+3C scenario" it simply means that the scenario passes through +3C on its way to 8C in 2500

LOL
Clever ImageImage
In 2500 RCP8.5 is actually RCP12.0
🤫 Image
Read 4 tweets
4 May
Hot off the press
The latest from Vaclav Smil on the energy transition via @jpmorgan
am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-ma…
Smil on Will Ferrell and Norway's EVs
The US EV challenge is large
But if EVs can succeed in the US, they can succeed everywhere
Read 8 tweets
30 Apr
A great paper by @JessicaWeinkle
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.111…

"the extent to which the insurance industry directs, funds & validates the production & use of science for estimating risk is itself a full blown political enterprise that functions to prioritize industry interests"
Weinkle documents the co-optation of scientists by the insurance industry to create regulatory-friendly research that appears to be "independent"
The use of the resulting research by industry goes unchallenged and in fact, legitimizes the work of the (no so) "independent" experts as authoritative because industry is using it ... so a mutually reinforcing legitimization circle
Read 5 tweets
29 Apr
Biden Has Elevated the Job of Science Adviser.
Is That What Science Needs?

Excellent stage setter for Lander hearing today by @WilliamJBroad

nytimes.com/2021/04/29/sci…
You can watch the Lander OTSP confirmation hearing here in about 1 hour: commerce.senate.gov/2021/4/nominat…
Here are five policy questions that I recommended be put to Lander at the hearing:
rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/five-questio…
Read 23 tweets
28 Apr
There is an interesting investigative journalism project to be done on the revolving door between climate science & policy and private sector climate services

Just as one example, John Kerry's predecessor as "climate envoy" co-founded a consulting firm that feeds off of RCP8.5
Absolutely fascinating how climate scenarios (RCPs, SSPs & their derivatives) are enabling entirely new markets for consulting based on financial risk assessments of fictional futures

It is also amazing how much money is being paid to explore these outdated, fictional futures
Observing the monetization of climate scenarios I am reminded of this passage from Rayner and Sarewitz 2021 @TheBTI Journal on how the Chesapeake Bay Program confused models and reality
thebreakthrough.org/journal/no-13-…
Read 7 tweets

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