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Peter Ungphakorn

15 May, 11 tweets, 10 min read

COVID-19 IN SWITZERLAND. Week to 15.05.2021—down

May 26: decision, more easing end-May?

Per 100K pop, total & last 2 wks
● cases—7860 & 217 (⬇️)
● in hospital—326 & 6 (⬇️)
● deaths—118 & 0.9 (⬇️)

R(e): up—0.87
Vaccs: 3.5m (1.2m 2nd doses)

FOPH covid19.admin.ch/en/overview?ov…

1/11

AND FOR THE PAST FORTNIGHT, R(e) since Sep28

covid19.admin.ch/en/overview

2/11

VIRUS VARIANTS detected

UK variant estimated 95%

Public Health Office: covid19.admin.ch/en/epidemiolog…
Science Task Force: sciencetaskforce.ch/en/nextstrain-…

3/11

BY CANTON: LAB-CONFIRMED CASES IN the past fortnight per 100K population—down. Worst still in Uri. Dark end of scale down from 766 to 529.

More: covid19.admin.ch/en/epidemiolog…

4/11

BY CANTON: LAB-CONFIRMED HOSPITALISATION in the past fortnight per 100K population—Improving, down from 8.04 to 6.04. Worse in Uri and Glarus, so dark end of scale up from 22 to 27

More: covid19.admin.ch/en/epidemiolog…

5/11

BY CANTON: DEATHS (which lag case numbers)—down from 1.2 to 0.9. Varied pattern. Uri worst. Not so good in some central N and NE cantons. Dark end of scale up from 5 to 5.5.

More: covid19.admin.ch/en/epidemiolog…

6/11

INTENSIVE CARE CAPACITY AND OCCUPANCY: all patients and COVID-19

Over 150 hospitals/clinics (Glarus, Appenzell Innerrhoden have no IC units)

All patients: improving overall

COVID-19: improving

More: covid19.admin.ch/en/hosp-capaci…

7/11

R(e) ESTIMATES: national over time, cantons latest.

Up slightly. Neuchâtel, Jura, Nidwalden and Appenzell A>1. Four cantons and Liechtenstein <0.8

Estimate: 0.87 nationally (from 0.85)

More: covid19.admin.ch/en/repro/val

Note: Swiss schools have stayed open during lockdown

8/11

VACCINATIONS (1) VACCINES AND DEMOGRAPHY

Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna roughly equal

Ordered: 36m doses: Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna, AstraZeneca, Curevac and Novavax (pop 8.6m)

Approved: Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna, J&J (not ordered)

covid19.admin.ch/en/epidemiolog…
covid19.admin.ch/en/epidemiolog…

VACCINATIONS (2) OVERALL

Clearly accelerating
Delivered: 3.9m=45% (from 3.7m/42%)
Administered: 3.5m=41% (from 3.0m/35%)
Fully (2 doses): 1.2m=13.7% (from 1.0m/11.7%)

covid19.admin.ch/en/epidemiolog…
covid19.admin.ch/en/epidemiolog…

10/11

LATEST: Decision May 26 on next phase, includes restaurants open indoors

Some cantons now vaccinating all adults (some over-16s)

A forgery-proof Covid-19 certificate available by the end of June

CURRENT SITUATION: swissinfo.ch/eng/covid-19_c…

11/11

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Peter Ungphakorn

@CoppetainPU

17 May

TRADE GEEK CORNER

Brazil has 2 new papers on domestic support in the WTO agriculture talks, analysis rather than proposals.

1. The exemption for developing countries allowing unlimited investment and input support even if trade-distorting (Art6.2)

1/4

docs.wto.org/dol2fe/Pages/S…

Among the paper's observations:

—only some developing countries use this exception (Art6.2), some a lot (eg India, Indonesia, not named in the paper)

—some exception continue to be needed to help poor farmers but not as an excuse to support "highly exported products"

2/4

2. Blue Box (Art6.5) ie trade-distorting support but with production limits, so currently allowed in unlimited amounts

Brazil says Blue Box should be negotiated too

The paper says only 5 countries are using this type of support; "A, B, C, D, and E"

3/4

docs.wto.org/dol2fe/Pages/S…

Read 4 tweets

Peter Ungphakorn

@CoppetainPU

12 May

@BiolysePharma

One to watch with (some) implications for the controversial WTO #Covid19Waiver on intellectual property protection.

Bolivia wants to import a generic version of the J&J COVID-19 #vaccine made under “compulsory” licence By @BiolysePharma in Canada

1/17

globalnews.ca/news/7851500/b…

@BiolysePharma

This may test the claim by #Covid19Waiver supporters that this route is too cumbersome

Under WTO rules, @BiolysePharma first had to try to get a voluntary licence from J&J to produce the vaccine. It tried in March and was rejected.

2/17

healthpolicy-watch.news/company-pushes…

Although the objective is to get a cheaper generic version of the vaccine to a developing country—Bolivia—a lot the focus will be on Canada.

Ottawa has to issue a compulsory licence to export, which has special rules. So far, no news on that

3/17

globalnews.ca/news/7851500/b…

Read 18 tweets

Peter Ungphakorn

@CoppetainPU

8 May

COVID-19 IN SWITZERLAND. Week to 08.05.2021—slight improvement

Last easing Apr 19

Per 100K pop, total & last 2 wks
● cases—7757 & 267 (⬆️)
● in hospital—321 & 8 (⬇️)
● deaths—117 & 1.2 (⬆️)

R(e): down—0.85
Vaccinations: 3m (1m 2nd doses)

FOPH covid19.admin.ch/en/overview?ov…

1/10

AND FOR THE PAST FORTNIGHT, R(e) since Sep28

covid19.admin.ch/en/overview

Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna mRNA vaccinations ongoing. J&J approved, not ordered. Supply picking up. Not yet approved: AstraZeneca, Curevac and Novavax. Switzerland has ordered over 30m doses for 8m people

2/10

VIRUS VARIANTS detected

UK variant dominant

Public Health Office: covid19.admin.ch/en/epidemiolog…
Science Task Force: sciencetaskforce.ch/en/nextstrain-…

3/10

Read 10 tweets

Peter Ungphakorn

@CoppetainPU

5 May

https://twitter.com/AmbassadorTai/status/1390021205974003720

Now this is quite a turn-around

https://twitter.com/AmbassadorTai/status/1390021205974003720

Notes:

1. Tai supports the waiver for COVID-19 *vaccines*. The waiver proposal is for all products related to the pandemic: medicines, testing kits, PPE, ventilators, etc

2. She anticipates a long negotiation, suggesting the US *might* be seeking constraints or conditions

3. The proposed waiver is not only for patents, which already have flexibilities such as compulsory licensing, but also three other areas, which don't—copyright, industrial designs and trade secrets.

It will be interesting to see if the US accepts waiving all four areas

Read 7 tweets

Peter Ungphakorn

@CoppetainPU

4 May

https://twitter.com/JohnHol32019188/status/1389464497933402114

Thanks, but I have reservations.

I'm happy to read about where policies might be going wrong, to discuss whether the characterisation of the ideologies behind trade liberalisation are correct.

But is the WTO is only of that ideology? The leap to "WTO reform" is illogical

1/5

https://twitter.com/JohnHol32019188/status/1389464497933402114

1. It's false to assume that "rules-based" (p8) means the same as "liberalisation". You can have "rules-based" trade barriers and indeed the WTO agreements allow for many. Some argue that having predictable rules is more valuable than lowering tariffs that are already low.

2/5

2. Which highlights the fact that WTO agreements—the outcome of negotiations—are a compromise between different interests and different ideologies. The WTO system does not come from just one ideology.

That makes the paper's notion of "WTO reform" quite off target.

3/5

Read 5 tweets

Peter Ungphakorn

@CoppetainPU

3 May

@NOIweala

Several news stories on the WTO website today, some from meetings late last week. Here are 3.

1. Today's meeting. Director-general @NOIweala said the most feasible priorities for delivery at the year-end ministerial conference were emerging.

1/11

wto.org/english/news_e…

Today's meeting was both a formal Trade Negotiations Committee and informal heads of delegations—unclear how that works since "formal" is on the record with minutes and "informal" is off the record with no minutes.

2/11

wto.org/english/news_e…

The "concrete deliverables": curbing fisheries subsidies; agricultural issues; and trade, health and the COVID-19 pandemic

On fisheries subsides the news story is not specific, except she spoke of "light at the end of the tunnel" and a deal by July

3/11

wto.org/english/news_e…

Read 11 tweets

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