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Original Braila Profile picture
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16 May, 8 tweets, 3 min read
What would this mean for a company like tasekomines.com

In other words, what is the bull market scenario and upside we Could see if copper does indeed move to 15 usd per pound?

I always do these napkin calculations rather than detailed excel spread sheet. #NotTP
What the market miss to price in when it comes to Taseko is that it is perhaps the copper producer with the largest pipeline to grow vs current production.

IF we continue to move towards super profits due to electrification and companies are drowning in cash... which companies
have the largest pipeline of projects to grow production coming 5y? And hence the largest non financial (free) leverage for us to the bull market?

Taseko has crazy much such leverage. Below is the low hanging fruit that would trigger at 4.50 usd copper...

After credits by prod Image
we would probably in a bull market say 10 usd copper we probably 2025 be at cashcost 1 usd and at 500m pounds copper production rather than the numbers in the chart. So this 600musd company (currently) would cashflow about 5400 musd.

So we're not really looking at 10x potential.
And this was at 10 usd copper rather than the 15 usd in the article. But still, what multiple could be reasonable at such a time? 3x CF sounds reasonable to me. I could easy see taxidrivers and shoeshine workers drive the electrification theme much higher though.. So 3x5400 16200
So that would place the bull scenario at 25x 5y from now

Still, we have not yet touched the New Prosperity project that was blocked by a tribe many years ago but is now under BC mediated negotiations delayed by covid. That is 300k gold at negative AISC after copper cred longlife
Then we have another huge gold project and one of the worlds few world class shovel ready niobium (strengthening steel) projects in Canada.

tasekomines.com/assets/docs/pr…
is the KING of pipeline projects. I love such companies when they suddenly become flush with cash in a BULL market.
Correction on the CF, 9 usd copper margin (when copper is at 10 usd) x 500 is 4500 musd)

I took the mcap nr by mistake, doesnt change the point made much...

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More from @OriginalBraila

Original Braila Profile picture
10 Jul
Top holdings for me:
1. $OET
2. #2020bulkers
3. eagleships.com
4. $TGB (Taseko)

New kid on the block is Eagle, small dry bulk ships.
Not all ECO but decent and it is really in the large ship segments ECO is most important. Top mgt without historical issues.
Besides its ECO share, most ships are also scrubber fitted. The company is making an absurd amount of money at current rates from Q3 it should be viewed as heavily spot and that means trading on something like P/E 1.3 as everything above 10k per day is Earnings on 53 vessels.
I am not saying these 32k per day will stay the coming year. But I am saying that so far they seem quite sticky and not so volatile. To some extent this is probably due to both being impacted but the same distortions as containers (without having that awful orderbook) +
Read 6 tweets
Original Braila Profile picture
10 Jul
Lets get the basics right:

$NMM trades at 35% of NAV. The logical thing, a money machine... would be to sell vessels and buy back stocks. The company instantly would tripple its money doing that.

Navios instead does the opposite.

Shocking seeing this presented as positive.
From the moment I mentioned Navios here, buying the late Navios containers, I pointed out that this is not a normal company. It really REALLY deserves to trade at a discount. It is among the worst you find in shipping when it comes to managements not being aligned with minority
People can absolutely and probably should speculate in $NMM because it is such a great setup. But everyone should also understand that it is not a company working for YOU. And do not say shipping is horrible if U loose money on unpleasant stuff Navios does.
No position currently
Read 4 tweets
Original Braila Profile picture
16 May
Taseko is lower risk because it already has very profitable and stable mine up and running (understand that last quarters were distorted from highgrading during covid followed by lowgrading as copper recovered).

Next big de-risker is when Florence starts according to plan.
Florence is fully financed and will be a silly profitable mine throwing off gigantic amounts of cashflow. This will then make Yellowhead Capex fairly easy to finance gradually starting say Autumn 2023.

#VirtuousCircle
IF New Prosperity re emerges that could replace Yellowhead as next after Florence and all my calculations would be wildly off. Copper production could be as planned but company cost would negative per pound.
Read 7 tweets
Original Braila Profile picture
28 Apr
What I have learned over the years is that good companies are often better than they look and bad companies are often worse than they look.

I have presented the case with SD for Capstone but when you look at this chart and see the potential of 440m pounds (everything under 70%
kept share of SD is old and unrealistic imo) And this possibly at a total cashcost of zero if iron ore, cobalt, sulphur & silver stays strong... but understand that from my listening of conf calls I think some serious growth through aquisition of old closed assets from majors is
brewing in Capstone. In fact the CEO put it something like this: Those negotiations and SD production decision is the most important for 2021.

The majors have no mill and assets are too small for them but for CS it could AGAIN be transformational... and again.. you get this free
Read 5 tweets
Original Braila Profile picture
28 Apr
$CS Capstone Santo Domingo project:
When we probably face a very strong price cycle I like mines with many different metals where 1-2 are treated as offsetting credit on cost.
What you get then is basically both higher metal price AND lower cost (due to more valuable credit).
SD in Chile looks Great... but the point is that it could be much better than that. It could be profitable like few other copper mines because it is:
Copper (3 vs 4.5) +
- Top Q 65% iron ore (80 vs 220)
- World class cobalt (20 vs 25)
- Gold (cashed to build mine)
- Sulphur
So this is the starting point and then you can start the fun of thinking where the cash cost would be if for example iron ore holds up reasonable. Know that 65% iron ore is premium vs the good stuff (62%).
Read 7 tweets
Original Braila Profile picture
13 Apr
I have my reward scenario for $OET somewhere around divs 50nok per year etc. My $OET risk thinking beyond Nov21 (if a worst case scenario hits) is like this:
17 ships
4 VLs can stay fixed 3y more and the rates incr 18k total 2m out from now.
1 more VL is fixed at 46k 2y more
2 Smaxes fixed at 29k 2y
So 8 of 17 can (but does not have to) stay fixed to protect.
Remaining (from Nov) 9 ships are ECO & scrubber with about a 10k advantage so if standard ships earn zero they earn 10k.
Then you basically have another 10k above cost from the 8 fixed
So combine the ECO with what comes from 8x profit ships and you will break even at 0 rate environment

But then you also have the fact that OETs ships are so attractive that they can always do a decent deal on a ship covering that ships cost. Negotiation is mostly how long time
Read 5 tweets

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