Solve a puzzle: How can these all point down(ish)?
The answer is in here somewhere
And in here
Ok. Here you go.
The solution is that the white people to the very right of the graph, where most of the precincts and voters are, aren't like the white people to the left and middle, where most of the non-whites are. You just learned about Simpson's paradox!
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
Updated trends in vaccine reluctance from our The Economist/YouGov polls:
The data this week show a continued negative trend in hesitancy, but with early signs of a flattening curve. On average, 68% say they have been or will get vaxxed, 19% say they won't, and 13% are unsure.
Party breakdown: 57% of Republicans say they have or will get a covid-19 shot. That is up by seven points over the last month. But opinion among GOPers who are uncertain about the shot may be hardening up, with fewer likely to change their mind as more persuadable ppl get vaxxed.
On age, the bad news is vax rates for seniors may have maxed out at 76%, w/ a steady 15% being in the hard "no" group.
The good news is there is still quite a ways to go with young people. Half are already vaxxed, and I estimate about ~65-70% are likely to be jabbed in the end.
Here's how Biden won in 2020, according to new numbers from Catalist:
1) A surge in turnout among black voters that pushed him over the line in AZ + GA 2) A shift toward Ds among whites, especially suburban college-educated ones, all over the country
A lot of press has focused on Democratic losses among Hispanics, but important to look at the other side of the coin too (especially given that, uh, Biden won?). But R losses among whites amounted to far more votes, since they are a larger share of the electorate.
Catalist's numbers suggest a bigger problem for Rs. New voters in 2020 were about as blue as you'd expect based on their age, but much younger than the overall pop. GenZ will only continue to grow as a % of the electorate, & R gains with Latinos will not offset these deficits.
I have done a lot of math & my final answer is that the difference between a precinct in Kenosha, WI and an identical one 300 miles away was a 1.5-2% decrease in votes for Joe Biden. The police violence & protests in WI last summer almost certainly helped Trump, all else equal.
As with any activism, you have to weigh electoral consequences w/ political gains/messaging, so what I'm not saying here is that "Democrats shouldn't talk about race and policing" or that "Black people shouldn't protest being shot in the back by police" — just validating numbers.
If anything, the dynamic whereby the police can shoot unarmed black ppl point blank, subsequently inflame tensions w/ rioters, plaster the coverage on Fox News and then have their allied political party gain from the fallout is an incredibly distressing & important finding
Moderates might be willing to run in an open primary **with different voting rules** but political scientists have no historical evidence for this re: open v closed.
If the pool of people running is more polarized, that polarization has to come from somewhere—eg media + elites.
It is weird to me that some people are so dedicated to arguing with an enormous volume of political science literature on this subject
I’d be really interested in seeing a qualitative study of this — maybe the quant lit has missed something. But the best explanation is that candidates are more polarized because everyone is more polarized, not because primaries are pushing them far left/righr
Won’t be a popular tweet, but I think political scientists mostly disagree that closed partisan primaries are the root cause of ideological polarization.
TED Talks are great. But I think I’m gonna stick with people who actually study politics, not a cheese factory owner, on this one
As a general rule, I tend to tune out people who say “x is the ONE single REAL reason that things are bad, and all your other nuanced explanations are wrong”
One explanation is that the share of people actually getting_vaccinated decreased (perhaps for additional reasons than the J&J pause!) but those people are telling pollsters they'll get it later