John Swinney is no longer the education secretary, being moved by the FM to become ‘minister in charge of covid recovery’ (still no health secretary appointed yet)

So let’s review John Swinney’s five years heading up Scottish education.
(1/16)
1️⃣ He abandoned a flagship education bill

Swinney dropped a major education reform which would have transferred power over the running of schools, the curriculum and budgets from councils to headteachers.

He buckled because the teaching unions told him to.
(2/16)
John Swinney claimed standards were improving, and its thanks to an absence of that flagship SNP education bill

“It is clear to me we would not have come so far in such a short period of time if we had relied on introducing an Education Bill.”
(3/16)
Of course it remains unclear even to this day what improvements in standards Swinney was referring to, since Scotland is performing so poorly that the SNP have ditched Scottish participation in international education assessments
(4/16)
Swinney pulled Scotland out of two international assessments claiming a need to save money.

Naturally it was a total coincidence that the assessments axed all revealed education outcome declines...

Funny that...
(5/16)
2️⃣ He buckled a second time under teaching union pressure

Swinney gave in to the powerful Educational Institute of Scotland union a second time, granting teachers a huge 13.5% pay rise over three years after threats of strike action.
(6/16)
3️⃣ After abandoning the education bill, agreeing 13.5% pay rise to teachers, he presided over worst ever PISA performance in maths & science

In 2019, the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) study revealed Scotland’s worst ever in maths & science outcomes
(7/16)
Stagnation & mediocrity in Scottish education under SNP:

➡️ Scotland's science score has dropped in every survey since the SNP came to power in 2007
➡️ The 11 point improvement in reading skills only brought Scotland's score back close to 2012 level (it dipped) in 2015
(8/16)
4️⃣ Swinney presided over a widening of the attainment gap between richest and poorest

2019 witnessed a widening of the attainment gap between richest and poorest since the SNP’s ‘Curriculum for Excellence’ was introduced
(9/16)
Swinney’s attainment gap shame:

➡️ 2019-2020 saw proportion of pupils passing three or more Highers was 43%, lower than any year from 2015 on
➡️ Audit Scotland found Scottish children from poor backgrounds remain significantly less likely than English kids to go to uni
(10/16)
5️⃣ He has made extremely dodgy claims on Twitter about schools closing the attainment gap
(11/16)
But Swinney is playing fast & loose with the truth when he tweets PISA ‘corroborates what we see elsewhere — improving schools and a closing of the attainment gap’.

How is he lying? Let’s look more closely at the Scottish Index for Multiple Deprivation...
(12/16)
SNP in 2019 claimed highest ever % school leavers (26%) from most-deprived quintile of areas were going on to university. BUT the Spectator found the SNP’s own research indicates “that as many as 90% of those on low incomes actually live outside the ‘most deprived’ areas”
(13/16)
Conclusion

John Swinney has presided over an era of Scottish education decline.

He has avoided tough decisions, abandoned reforms that worked in England. He bought teachers off instead of listening & hid falling outcomes by ending international assessments participation
(14/16)
Sources:

▪️SNP abandons flagship education bill
telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/…

▪️ Attainment gap between rich and poor 'has widened in Scotland's schools under new curriculum'
telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/…

▪️Swinney axes global school assessments
thescottishsun.co.uk/news/scottish-…
(15/16)
Sources (continued)

▪️Scottish Government 'falls short' on pledge to close education poverty gap
itv.com/news/border/20…

▪️How the SNP wrecked Scottish education
spectator.co.uk/article/how-th…
(16/16)

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More from @DeanMThomson

12 May
"Let us demonstrate, with cool heads & patient persuasion that Scotland is ready" Ms Sturgeon, 28th Nov 2020, STV

A lot has happened since the FM that, how has the 'patient persuasion' on independence progressed?

➡️What of the polls?
➡️What of the economic case for indy?
[1/16]
1⃣ What of the polls?

A polling average since beginning of April reveals 46% against independence & 45% in favour.

But if we take 10 most recent polls, no lead extends to 47% opposed & 44% in favour. At same time, the number of undecideds has remained at around 9% of pop
[2/16]
If anything Nicola Sturgeon's 'patient persuasion' is indeed persuading people, but of the merits of the UK as compared to the weak case for scexit.

A regular 'yes' lead has by this point largely disappeared in favour of remaining in the UK.
[3/16]
Read 16 tweets
26 Apr
I've been doing some research for a future book on Anglophobia in Scotland. I thought I'd share some findings.

A thread on Anglophobia and its relationship with Scottish nationalism (lower case 'n') in Scotland
[1/25]
1⃣ While the SNP is not Anglophobic per se, Anglophobia seems to be a feature and not a bug with Scottish nationalism.
[2/25]
➡️Looking at the data:

Look at this multivariate analysis of Islamophobia and Anglophobia in Scotland

It has been taken from 'Findings and Economic Research Programme on Devolution & Constitutional Change , briefings No.24, March 2005'
[3/25]
Read 29 tweets
21 Apr
Why turnout & the number of postal votes matter in this election. And why Nicola Sturgeon is so risk averse as to duck BBCQT & unveil a magic money tree manifesto expanding middle class welfare

A thread.
(1/25)
1️⃣ Postal Voting

The Holyrood 2021 election there are a million postal votes, 23.8% of the electorate.

This is an increase on the 17.7% in 2016.
(2/25)
In 2016 the election turnout overall was 55.8% (constituency) and 55.9% (regional)

And exactly 726,555 postal votes were issued (17.7% of the total electorate)

Almost 77% of postal votes issued were returned by electors in 2016
(3/25)
Read 26 tweets
21 Apr
Some curiosities in the Scottish government’s approach to education, international comparisons...and picking fights with teachers...
(1/13)
1️⃣ Withdrawal from international comparisons

ScotGov has withdrawn from two international education surveys:

➡️Trends in International Mathematics & Science Study (Timss),

➡️ Progress in International Reading Literacy Study (PIRLS)
(2/13)
PISA is last of big three Scotland still participated in.

2019 PISA reveals declining Scottish performance in maths and science.
(3/13)
Read 14 tweets
19 Apr
Is anyone else getting the sensation that polling is overstating SNP support? Or that the SNP are concerned about their internal numbers?

Here's a thread outlining some of my thinking.
➡️SNP Turnout issues
➡️Thinning poll leads
➡️Comparing 2016 & 2021
[1/19]
1⃣ Comparing poll leads (constituency)

The run-up to 2016 had the SNP polling very strongly:

In Feb 24th 2016 the SNP polled 60% (ten weeks out from the elections).
[2/19] Image
By March 22nd 2016, the SNP polled 56% (six weeks from the vote). Still very strong.
[3/19] Image
Read 20 tweets
14 Apr
A thread gathering together core facts about the drug deaths crisis in Scotland. Following Nicola Sturgeon’s admission that she took her “eye off the ball on drug deaths”, just how big a tragedy has the SNP presided over?

#SP21 #Holyrood2021
(1/10)
Fact 1:

Scotland has the more drug deaths per capita than any other European country.
(2/10)
Fact Two:

Benzodiazepines are becoming used as a way for high-risk opioid users to self-medicate or increase the effects of their heroin or methadone addictions.

The situation grows worse.
(3/10)
Read 11 tweets

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