There used to be little correlation between crypto and global markets in general. But the sell-off in Nasdaq futures overnight does look (very and unusually) correlated to the breakdown in crypto space

[here illustrated with BTC (green) and ETH(yellow), vs Nasdaq (white)]
Here is the correlation matrix, for reference:

We should probably add Nasdaq to this matrix @WBegole . Will be interesting to track...
for example, BTC has a marginal positive correlation to SPX and ETH has a marginal negative correlation to SPX over the last 20 days. Hence, the co-movement is something new, which will only be picked up in backward looking correlations (and risk management) over time.
Here is an expanded matrix with Nasdaq now included (no historical correlation to crypto showing yet)

we will automate an update on @exantedata going forward, as this is interesting to monitor

thanks @WBegole

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More from @jnordvig

20 May
My twitter follower count has suddenly spiked to 15K today on the back of @donnelly_brent 's #fintwit top 20 survey today (Brent is a powerful man!).

I am happy to be in good company on the list, and also happy to get followers from Brent's network, which itself is high quality!
Here is the main list from Brent's AM/FX publication this morning.

I follow most of these folks already, but will have a look at the exceptions in coming days. Should I do a list? Image
Since I am interested in FX, I was also interested in the FX specific ranking :-) Image
Read 5 tweets
17 May
The debate about bitcoin now reminds me of a wedding I went to in 2006.

A beautiful wedding that was ruined by a discussion about the US housing market.

It went like this...
1/ Back in 2007, I was at a fantastic wedding in LA. The dinner was outdoors, in spectacular weather, with a unbelievable view to the ocean. All was going well, until the discussion touched on the US housing market.
2/ I was working as an economist at Goldman Sachs at the time, and the fundamentals of the housing market looked shaky. I argued, after being asked about my opinion, that the US housing market could be in a bubble. That was a mistake.
Read 11 tweets
2 May
My tweet from yesterday has generated A LOT of debate. In fact, almost 1 million people have looked at the basic chart I circulated (showing with EU catching up to the pace of vaccine administrations the US first achieved in March).

It has also generated some misinterpretation. I did not mean to imply that any country was ‘winning’ against any other country. In this battle, it is all countries against the virus, and we should all celebrate when more countries join the winning side.
In terms of what it means to be ahead, clearly it is not just about a good pace for a few days. It is about the speed at which you can reach a critical level of overall immunity in the population; at which put the virus will be on a sustained declined (including after reopening).
Read 8 tweets
26 Apr
Here is an important chart. It has changed a fair bit over the past month, and I am not sure everybody has internalized it.

The EU is closing the gap to the US in terms of vaccine administrations. Image
I know the EU has somewhat higher population and the J&J pause may have impacted the US numbers more (and temporarily), and that demand may be an increasing issue in the US.

But the numbers are what the numbers are in the aggregate, and the EU roll-out has accelerated notably.
Further, the EU roll-out can probably accelerate further, as J&J comes fully online and Pfizer/BioNTech scales up deliveries more.

Things will look different by May...
Read 4 tweets
15 Apr
US 10Y yields are up 70bp on the year, after retracing some over the last few weeks.

How is the alleged EM taper tantrum going? (4 tweet thread)
It is a mixed bag, not all EMs are the same, but the most liquid crosses are interesting. Starting with South Africa:

the ZAR is appreciating strongly in recent week, and now clearly at a new post-COVID-shock high vs the USD (=USD at the lows...)
The MXN saw some volatility in Feb and early March, but is quickly approaching the strongest post-covid-shocks levels again, as seen in January
Read 5 tweets
13 Mar
Should the Fed lie?

Some argue that showing 2023 rate liftoff at the March 17 FOMC would be counter-productive, and that it would be better to manipulate the dots lower to strengthen the forward guidance.

Is lying sound central bank communication?
On the one hand, the Fed is trying hard to be accommodative, and the new core element in the Fed's framework is not to be preemptive, and instead wait for realized (inflation) outcomes, before embarking on tightening. Hence, you want low dots.
On the other hand, some FOMC participants may indeed think that inflation will hit their objective (2%, and on a path to exceed it) within the forecast horizon. Hence, you can argue, within the framework, that it is logical then to show 2023 lift-off in that scenario.
Read 13 tweets

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