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20 May, 4 tweets, 1 min read
Republican candidates for House won the most votes in 29 states worth 290 electoral votes, accounting for uncontested races, even as Democrats won the House and carried the national House vote by about 2 points by the same measure
And if the conventional wisdom is right about how redistricting will go for Democrats, and I believe it is, then even that national margin of victory in the House vote probably wouldn't be enough to hold the chamber in 2022
I think this winds up as an important twist on the 'why won't the GOP rebrand/autopsy/ditch Trump?' question.
Many have noted the GOP nearly won in 2020, but if the non-Trump GOP did enough to win a trifecta, at least on a 2022 map, why would it think it needs to do anything?
That's not to say that they don't need to change. Maybe they do. Maybe they got the best of both worlds in 20, by enjoying Trump's turnout, running as a check on Biden, and having a different brand than Trump. I could come other reasons, of course. Just an ex.

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More from @Nate_Cohn

Nate Cohn Profile picture
18 May
A great question, with at least three big moving pieces to my mind--particularly on the TX side of the equation:
Can Biden bounce back among Latinos? I think there are a lot of reasons for Ds to hope so
Merely holding 2016 support among Latino voters would have meant a Biden+2 victory in Florida and Trump+1 in Texas.
Is there any GOP dead-cat bounce in affluent, well-educated, conservative suburbs?
They're not going back to pre-Trump levels, of course. But what about merely Trump 2016? Here's there's a lot more GOP upside in Texas than Florida
Read 7 tweets
Nate Cohn Profile picture
14 May
I'm a little late to the Catalist report on the demographic makeup of the electorate from earlier this week, but I wanted to note a few quick things
catalist.us/wh-national/
One observation: in the fight between AP/Votecast and the exit poll, the Catalist estimates are a fairly clear vote in favor of Votecast.
And when you put all the various sources together (adding CCES, CPS, live phone), the exit polls are an outlier on several indicators
I'm not going to be comprehensive, but the exit polls continue to show--as they have for more than a decade--an erroneously diverse and well educated electorate, with countervailing (and erroneous) Dem weakness among white voters (esp with a degree)
Read 10 tweets
Nate Cohn Profile picture
4 May
Why rising diversity isn't quite helping Democrats as much as progressives hope or conservatives fear nytimes.com/2021/05/04/us/…
--Most growth is among non-Black groups of nonwhite voters, who back Ds more modestly
--Rs do fairly well among those groups in the red states that Ds need to flip
--Ds made big, overlooked gains among white voters in many states where diversity might have otherwise been key
That second point--the R strength among nonwhite voters in red states like TX/FL--has a blue state corollary: D strength among nonwhite voters in blue states, which adds to the Dem E.C. challenge by padding Dem margins in IL/CA/NY/CT/NJ etc. without adding electoral votes
Read 11 tweets
Nate Cohn Profile picture
29 Apr
New census data on 2020 turnout is out:
White, non-Hispanic share of the electorate drops to 71 percent from 73.3 in 2016
Black share of the electorate drops slightly, from 12.4 to 12.3 percent
Hispanic share increases to 10.6 from 9.2 percent
Demographic change was the main driver of the shift.
The turnout rate among non-Hispanic white voters increased by 5.6 points, slightly above the 5.4 point national average
Black turnout rate increased by just 3.2 points
Hispanic turnout rate increased by 6.1 points
Here's the change in the white share of the electorate, by state.
State data is pretty noisy, don't interpret the details!
One preemptive example: it's likely the white share of the electorate declined slightly in both PA/MI, rather than big drop in one and increase in the other
Read 7 tweets
Nate Cohn Profile picture
29 Apr
A nice FiveThirtyEight summary of some of the various GOP electoral biases, which were quite extreme in 2020 and could conceivably get worse
(by their definition, the GOP E.C. edge grew from 3.5 to 3.9 points with the new population figures on Monday)
fivethirtyeight.com/features/advan…
One minor thing: just because something is biased doesn't mean it's counter-majoritarian. The House is conceived to reflect majority will. The Electoral College is complicated, but it's not really counter-majoritarian and to the extent it is, that's not why it's biased
The Senate, on the other hand, really is designed to check the majority (the extent that's good or bad is another question, ofc).
What's fascinating is that the Senate, EC and House are all similarly biased against Dems, despite being intended to be biased in very different ways
Read 6 tweets
Nate Cohn Profile picture
28 Apr
It's 2028. Kamala Harris loses the election by the margin of... 89 census takers in New York and Minnesota
It's a tough map to pull off, but there are a few other ways to get there (if Dems get 269 and MN is red, then Democrats lost by the margin of MN getting the final vote over NY)
Best effort yet
Read 5 tweets

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