10% of cases reported today were detected in Bolton
(There is surge testing in Bolton, which may explain part of this.)
But cases are very high there with high case rates in children with a bit of a gap then up to 40-44 year olds. (This *could* indicate household transmission between children and their parents.) Fig: @PHE_uk
Increases in cases are not just confined to the under-60s (Fig: PHE dashboard) although the rate of increase is lower in the over-60s.
Bolton remains the local authority with the highest case rates (these are rolling case numbers over the last week)
Hospitalizations are starting to increase.
This chart *doesn't* tell us several things
- age
- severity
- vaccination history
This is the chart for ICU/HDU.
But treat this chart with caution - these are small numbers increases (1 or 2, and patients may also have other conditions not just Covid).
It is great to see that people in Bolton are taking up the call to get vaccinated.
Bolton has an about-average vaccine takeup (these figures are from the Covid dashboard)
Detected cases have approximately doubled in the last week (acknowledging there is surge testing taking place)
Some areas of Bolton have 1% ( 998.5 / 100,000 ) of their population testing positive in the last week.
And some areas of Bolton don't.
But looking at statistics doesn't tell you what's going on on the ground. That's where Directors of Public Health, Health Protection Teams, and journalists come in. Here's an update from @ShaunLintern
Public Health England have published their data for Variants of Concern.
- B.1.617.2 is becoming dominant with 2,111 new cases
- But also increases in these variants of concern
P1 (+30)
B.1.351 (+41)
- New variant under investigation AV.1
nb cumulative chart
... thread
Here is the cumulative chart on a log scale
And here is a heatmap of cases per week excluding colouring the B.1.1.7 ('Kent') variant
The overseas travel to amber list countries is potentially a mess. See this for Malta and Spain (currently on the amber list whose advice has changed).
The Foreign Office advice (which tends to be the advice that insurers use to determine whether a travel policy is valid) say this about Spain (on the left) and Malta (on the right).
"It is therefore highly likely that this variant is more transmissible than B.1.1.7 (high confidence), and it is a realistic possibility that it is as much as 50% more transmissible. ...
"At the end of last year, as JCVI set out their priorities for who should be vaccinated, the first priority was to vaccinate those most at risk of dying. A secondary priority –one that can be overlooked– included the possibility of vaccinating those at increased risk of exposure.
“Since then, we now know that Covid vaccines can reduce transmission. This is great news, and together with the lockdown, cases have fallen significantly.