"At the end of last year, as JCVI set out their priorities for who should be vaccinated, the first priority was to vaccinate those most at risk of dying. A secondary priority –one that can be overlooked– included the possibility of vaccinating those at increased risk of exposure.
“Since then, we now know that Covid vaccines can reduce transmission. This is great news, and together with the lockdown, cases have fallen significantly.
“But cases have risen significantly in some parts of the country – areas such as Bolton, Blackburn, Erewash. It is clear that people in these areas are at higher risk of exposure.
“We also know that vaccines have not been taken up evenly. 93% of white over-50s have been vaccinated, compared to 66% of black over-50s. That’s a huge difference. And uptake of vaccines is lower in deprived areas.
“We certainly need to get to those people who for one reason or another have been missed the first time around, so prioritizing vaccines in areas where takeup has been low is critical.
“What we didn’t know when the JCVI guidance was originally published is that vaccines would be so good at reducing transmission for example within households.
"So getting those vaccines into areas that have high case rates – or could in the future have high case rates due to poor vaccine takeup – is in my view an excellent use of vaccines, which is at the moment our most precious resource.
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"It is therefore highly likely that this variant is more transmissible than B.1.1.7 (high confidence), and it is a realistic possibility that it is as much as 50% more transmissible. ...
A quick overview thread of case rates prior to moving to Step 3 on 17 May.
Overall cases in the UK are at 21 cases per 100,000.
Case rates are higher than they were last summer after the first wave and before that unlocking.
Some of this is increase is due to mass testing.
In late June last year, cases in all age groups were under 10 cases per 100,000 (except 80+ where they were 12 per 100,000).
Cases now are higher.
If we compare to the extreme situation in January (seen below), things don't look too bad. If we compare to June last year, cases do look relatively high.
Most of these cases were related to travellers. We have since required quarantine for people that have been in India. So this should (in theory) reduce significantly the import of B.1.617.2