Chris Whitty has said that B.1.617.2 is *more* transmissible than B.1.1.7
(Number 10 press conference)
(Number 10 press conference)
SAGE have now published their minutes from yesterday's meeting.
The key sentence is here
gov.uk/government/pub…
The key sentence is here
gov.uk/government/pub…
"It is therefore highly likely that this variant is more transmissible than B.1.1.7 (high confidence), and it is a realistic possibility that it is as much as 50% more transmissible. ...
" ... There are also plausible biological reasons as to why some of the mutations present could make this variant more transmissible.
" ... It is unclear whether this same growth advantage that has been observed over recent weeks would apply to sustained wider community transmission regionally or nationally.
" ... The range of possible differences in transmissibility reflects the uncertainty around the number of imported cases, and the current relatively localised transmission.
This is another key paragraph
So, the Prime Minister has been informed (or could have been informed) that
"an even faster increase can be expected if measures are relaxed"
"an even faster increase can be expected if measures are relaxed"
And this is also key. (But note the word 'if')
So, we don't know. But, *if* B.1.617.2 has a 40-50% transmission advantage vs. B.1.1.7, then it is likely that there would be a "substantial" resurgence of hospitalizations (similar to *or larger than* previous peaks)
It is clear that yesterday's SAGE meeting was significant.
The Prime Minister has taken the view that the risks of a possible substantial resurgence of hospitalisations - similar to or larger than previous peaks - is worth taking.
That is a political decision.
The Prime Minister has taken the view that the risks of a possible substantial resurgence of hospitalisations - similar to or larger than previous peaks - is worth taking.
That is a political decision.
And here is the technical modelling analysis from SPI-M-O
https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1393253535584821252
This is a key paragraph from their assessment
SPI-M-O: "It is a realistic possibility that this scale of B.1.617.2 growth could lead to a very large increase in transmission. ...
"... At this point in the vaccine rollout, there are still too few adults vaccinated to prevent a significant resurgence that ultimately could put unsustainable pressure on the NHS, without non-pharmaceutical interventions"
This morning's interview on @bbc5live on Saturday Breakfast show with @chriswarburton_ and @EllyOldroyd discussing:
Confirmed increased transmission for the India B.1.617.2 variant and what that means for the Roadmap.
Confirmed increased transmission for the India B.1.617.2 variant and what that means for the Roadmap.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
