Some quick thoughts for new investors about writing up a new idea:

When I first started investing (and still sometimes do today) I wanted to write everything down about a stock.

Every data point on paper.

Yet this brain-dump removed the LEARNING from "learning the biz"...
The more I asked other investors about their processes, the more I realized they spend less time "data dumping" and more time deeply thinking.

I know, it sounds pithy.

But these are my favorite investors. What did they know that I didn't?

Answer: The power of compounding..
Here's what they (generally) do.

The best investors I know slowly accumulate knowledge on a company or industry (months, years, etc.).

Then, when a new idea surfaces, they leverage all that compounded knowledge and the actual act of writing the idea becomes effortless.
Some people here (myself included) write about a new idea once a week.

Sometimes its impossible to wrap my head around an idea in six days.

I get frustrated and feel left behind. Honestly I still don't know how @packyM does it (and neither does he!)
Instead, take the LT view

It's not about becoming an all-encompassing expert on your CURRENT write-up.

it's about depositing that knowledge into a interest-bearing account. One that grows over time.

An account you can leverage 20+ years from now.

Crawl. Walk. Run. Sprint.

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More from @marketplunger1

20 May
1/ “We can have no finer role model. He was a value investor — a member of that eccentric tribe that believes it’s better to underpay than to overpay.”

This thread reveals the story of the greatest value investor you've never heard of.

The story of Floyd Odlum.

THREAD Image
2/ With a decent income from his job as a law clerk, Odlum started trading in the stock market. He initially saw the market as a rich, fertile ground for speculative profits. Far from his cemented legacy as a deep value investor.
3/ Yet like most beginning speculators, Odlum too paid his fair share of market tuition.

After losing all his $40,000 starting capital, Odlum retreated from the markets. One newspaper revealed it, “took [Odlum] a while to pay back that sum”.
Read 24 tweets
13 May
There aren’t many investors compounding capital at double digits over the course of decades and those that do are already well known (i.e., that guy from Omaha). However, in a small office above a taco shop, a man did just that.

[THREAD]
Allan Mecham ran a hedge fund called Arlington Value who has demonstrated the advantage in simplicity, long-term thinking, and the power of compounding.

Arlington Value doesn’t have a large team of analysts.
They don’t run advanced machine-learning algorithms or exploit esoteric satellite data and there’s not a single distinguished diploma on their walls.
Read 11 tweets
12 May
Reading this 2003 blog post from @bgurley on Internet-based businesses and how many investors threw every dot-com business out with the bathwater.

Gurley offered 4 reasons why some companies worked when everyone thought they wouldn't.

[THREAD]
abovethecrowd.com/2003/04/23/dot…
1) They weren’t bad ideas:

"In fact many were good ideas. Were there too many consumer startups? Yes! But there were also too many software companies, semiconductor companies, telecom equipment companies, and the list goes on and on.
As we later learned, over-funding (i.e., too many startups with too much capital) was the key issue, not the particular investment category. Low-cost, high-scale marketplaces do in fact exhibit increasing returns.
Read 9 tweets
12 May
Successful investing is an active rebellion against one’s instinctual proclivity to sabotage long-term returns.

In a perfect world, investing is like gardening. You cut the weeds (losers) and water you flowers (winners).

In practice, investors do the opposite.
We tend to sell winning stocks too early (cutting the fruit) while desperately clinging to losing positions (watering the weeds).

This habit is called the Disposition Effect.
Coined by Shefrin and Statman in 1985, the Disposition effect explains the tendency for investors to cut their winners short while riding their losers lower.

It’s an academic way of saying, “most investors suck.”
Read 4 tweets
11 May
Love reading @RudivNiekerk investor letters. What he’s doing in South Africa is truly differentiated and special.

So I spent last weekend reviewing the African $AFK ETF and picked my favorite names in the space.

Here’s a thread on what I found 🇿🇦🇿🇦🇿🇦
Guaranty Bank (GUARANTY.NSE)

One of the cheapest biz I’ve seen in any market. The core banking segment generates 26% ROE with 51% NI margins. Expecting ~13% 2022 rev growth.

You can buy it for 4.5x current earnings w/ a 10% DY.
Mtn Nigeria Communication (MTNN)

Nigeria’s leading mobile operator. 76.5M subscribers and the #1 NPS score in its industry. 32% EBIT margins.

Largest mobile network w/ 49% smartphone penetration. Data rev up 57% YoY & will grow w/ smartphone adoption.

Can buy for ~8x EBIT.
Read 7 tweets
12 Apr
A week ago, @SagaPartners said something that's stuck with me:

"A potentially great idea is when no one agrees with you. A potentially bad idea is when no one agrees with you."

I've thought about some ways to help investors think about these two conundrums ...

[THREAD]
1/ Determine what you are disagreeing over.

If you're on two different "logic" planets, the argument will fail because nobody's gonna listen from that starting position.

Find common principles on why you're wrong and go from there.
2/ Give fair weight to your "opponents" POV and credentials.

If you're pitching a media stock and @AndrewRangeley is ripping it to shreds, that matters *WAY MORE* than say, someone like me who has issues with one or two points.

Respecting intellectual authority can only help
Read 8 tweets

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