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Federico Andres Lois Profile picture
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21 May, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Mientras tanto nuestro presidentisimo @alferdez que tiene un grupejo de epidemiologos que parecen extras salidos de una revista condorito. Cierra todo por 1 semana, cuando haciendo esto mismo hoy es 1ero mundial en muertos diarios por millón. Ya lo dijo Einstein, insanity.
Que te quede claro, esto es una cuestión netamente política. Porque si miraran las estadísticas (y supieran lo que estan mirando) verían que ya se nota la desaceleración en las curvas de mortalidad y eso que tenemos 12 días de lag de datos.
Y algo más, a pesar de @FernanQuirosBA ser uno de los mas sensatos en toda esta locura, @horaciorlarreta comete el garrafal error de entregarle en bandeja la caída de la mortalidad que se vienen por mobilidad cerrando las escuelas. Sean inteligentes. @PatoBullrich @mauriciomacri
Están entrando como vacas al matadero. Después no digan qué no se los avisamos. Intenté llegar a ustedes por medios varios para mostrarles como entender la dinámica epidémica, pero sin respuestas. Ahora háganse cargo.

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More from @federicolois

Federico Andres Lois Profile picture
21 May
1/n I have my doubts that with all the emojis the real message suffered. The more you look for unknown coronaviruses inside pneumonia patients, the more we are going to find. "I believe there are many animal [coronaviruses] out there that can transmit to humans"
This is key.
2/n Why would you ask? Because there exist something called: "Pneumonia of unknown etiology"
And that number at least in this study is a whooping 54%.
hindawi.com/journals/bmri/…
3/n Someone told me the other day: "Most people are blissly unaware that the world is a harsh place. They don’t appreciate most of what is around us..." And that is what's going on. We are unaware that in more than half of the pneumonias we dont know what causes it.
Read 5 tweets
Federico Andres Lois Profile picture
11 May
1/n I was going to write a review myself, because this paper was hilarious, specially the twist at the end. @MIT_CSAIL discovers through observations that there is something called "Scientific Method". But the thread by @commieleejones is just gold. He deserves a follow.
2/n But I think there is never a waste of a good thread. So I encourage the authors @crystaljjlee, @arvindsatya1 et al. To research a little bit about the THE SCIENCE because well, its kinda lacking.
3/n It doesn't require much to someone that has been working in data for a living for 10+ years to figure out when something like this happens, there is something afoul going on.
Read 7 tweets
Federico Andres Lois Profile picture
5 May
@GidMK @WesPegden @pafournier @AlastairMcA30 @sdbaral @VPrasadMDMPH 1/n That shouldn't be too difficult. Take a 50% seroprevalence location (my hometown serves quite well), spike based randomized serostudy done less than a month ago. Know the population, 125K inhabitants, 15% percent >60yo. 3 deaths over the entire pandemic below 40yo.
@GidMK @WesPegden @pafournier @AlastairMcA30 @sdbaral @VPrasadMDMPH 2/n Therefore, that is 60K (rounding down) infected people, and given our population structure we know that at least 30K of those had been below 40yo. Right? So from 30K infections you got 4 deaths.
@GidMK @WesPegden @pafournier @AlastairMcA30 @sdbaral @VPrasadMDMPH 3/n But we can do even better. You know I kinda know the person in charge there (did I mention is my hometown?). You know how many of those had been healthy? I dont want to spoil it, but...
Read 7 tweets
Federico Andres Lois Profile picture
4 May
1/n Unpopular opinion here, but stay with me. As noted there is a vaccine hesitancy problem in many countries (as some like to call it). For example, many report that in the USA there is more availability than people wanting to vaccinate.
2/n So what would governments do: "We are going to stay in lockdown because we cannot achieve 'herd immunity' this way", which if you have followed me this last year you know that not to be true, BUT, dont focus on that.
3/n The hesitancy problem is not gonna go away, those that wont take the vax until trial is over, wont take it no matter what you do. Those that already taken it, are not their problem anymore. What about the middle ground.
Read 7 tweets
Federico Andres Lois Profile picture
30 Apr
Todavía riendome de los que pensaron que las #restricciones iban a ser por 15 días jajajaja... No puedo dejar de reirme. #argentina

Ahh y ya pasamos a Suecia en muertos por millón y ellos ya pasaron la segunda ola...
Ahora si la población supiera que la forma de minimizar mortalidad es hacer #restricciones diferenciadas por 90 días y abrir todo para menores de 50/60 que tienen super baja mortalidad ya hubieran incendiado todo. Te engañaron como a una colegiala...
Y cuando digo TODO, es TODO... boliches, todo!!! Chau máscaras, chau todo... no queres que los vulnerables se sientan seguros en la calle. Y si vivis con un vulnerable, vos tampoco tendrías que sentirte seguro, así minimizas riesgo.
Read 7 tweets
Federico Andres Lois Profile picture
25 Apr
1/n Epidemiological models are underdetermined. What @pjakma is doing is showing exactly that. You have to fight underdetermination with tooth and nails. I have wrote about this before, but as the video shows with that much variability it is pointless. Are there alternatives?
2/n Yes. There are 2 types of models, exploratory and predictive. Usually your model with fit one category, it is very unlikely your will fit in both. Fitted models help you in the predictive realm, but the key point is to realize that under-determination is a thing.
3/n That forces you to have to diminish the amount of moving parts, and try to remove as many high-dimensional stochastic inputs as possible through averaging. That's the approach we took on our work.
Read 12 tweets

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