Good post-mortem in @PopSci about the controversy over @ClimateEnvoy's remarks last week. He meant to say largely what the new IEA report says: that we will ultimately need to help bring technologies that are not mature today to market to reach net-zero.
popsci.com/environment/ne…
I suggested that a lot of the controversy stemmed from the fact that "People are sort of using this as a proxy for their own larger debates, be it futuristic techno fixes versus technologies that are available today, or large scale reforms of capitalism versus green growth."
@JesseJenkins noted that “the challenge is less about invention and more about taking techs like CCS, air capture, biomass gasification, electrolysis – which are invented today and have been demonstrated at pilot or commercial scale – and making them cheap, mature, and scalable.”
One small remaining critique: this statement by @ClimateEnvoy's staff that "about half of the emissions reductions to reach net-zero by 2050 must come from technologies that are not yet ready for market" is not quite accurate.
While the IEA does suggest that half of the emissions reductions in 2050 relative to a stated-policy baseline (STPS) will come from technologies that are not on the market today, thats not the case for cumulative emission reductions between 2020 and 2050:

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More from @hausfath

21 May
2021 is off to a cooler start, with the seventh warmest Jan-April period since records began in the mid-1800s.

That said, it is still warmer than 164 of the 171 years on record, showing just how much human activity has changed what seems normal. carbonbrief.org/state-of-the-c…
Based on the first four months temperatures and the El Nino/La Nina forecast, @CarbonBrief estimates that annual 2021 temperatures also gave the best chance of ending up as the 7th warmest year on record – and its very likely to be somewhere between the fourth and ninth warmest.
We do not expect every year to set a new record in a warming world, as a lot of year-to-year variability is influenced by El Nino and La Nina cycles. The moderate La Nina event in late 2020 and early 2021 is contributing to cooler temperatures, though its is quickly fading:
Read 5 tweets
20 May
My recent thread lauding the new electric F150 truck for getting better performance at a comparable cost engendered a lot of pushback and criticism of America's "autocentrism" and "fetish for big cars". These are real issues, but not a reason to criticize the new F150 per se. 1/x
It is clearly the case that America needs to invest a lot more in modernized public transportation infrastructure, and help reduce the need for car ownership in many areas. The Biden administration infrastructure bill takes a number of important steps to address this. 2/
At the same time, people who are buying $40k+ pickup trucks today (one out of every 16 light vehicles sold in the US! ) are not doing so because they lack other transport alternatives. There are plenty of much more fuel efficient lower cost options to get from point A to B. 3/
Read 9 tweets
17 May
Its a shame that @washingtonpost's excellent fact checking does not extend to scientific statements in op-eds, as this one is a hot mess of a Gish Gallop: washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/…
Where to start? No, the rate of global sea-level rise 70 years ago was not "as large as what we observe today", at least in 4 out of 5 available reconstructions: carbonbrief.org/explainer-how-…
Yes, the the number of significant tornadoes hasn’t changed much at all, but scientists never claimed that they would (and our models generally can't resolve small-scale events like tornadoes): carbonbrief.org/tornadoes-and-…
Read 7 tweets
17 May
I missed quite the climate twitter drama, being offline over the weekend.

I'll just say that while I disagree that ~ half of emissions reductions need to come from tech that we don’t yet have, theres a case to be made that > 50% needs to come from tech that is not mature today.
Debates around mitigation are often framed as a choice between mature technologies today and future innovations. In reality we need to do both; to deploy what is cost-effective today, and to invest in range of solutions needed to tackle hard-to-decarbonize parts of economy.
I suppose a lot of the debate about Kerry's statement comes down to how you interpret "technologies that we don’t yet have". It doesn't help that the Guardian changed that to "technologies that have not yet been invented"...
Read 6 tweets
14 May
There is some truth to criticism of Smil's pessimism around energy transitions. The past is an important guide, but at the same time we have not previously had exogenous pressures like climate to force transitions. Where I disagree with @mbarnardca's take is on Gate's investments
Solar and wind are huge success stories today, and will be the largest drivers of decarbonization for the next few decades. But theres a growing view among energy models that 100% WWS systems – as Jacobson proposes – are much more costly than mixed ones. thebreakthrough.org/issues/energy/…
We should be ecumenical about future energy tech, and on any particular technology to fill in the remaining gaps. For that reason I think its great if billionaires throw lots of money at speculative technologies that might not pan out, vs say improving solar efficiency by 2%.
Read 5 tweets
30 Apr
Had a good discussion today on @TheWorld with @ProfTimJackson about the extent to which we can both have economic growth and mitigate climate change.

pri.org/file/2021-04-3…

Lets dig into the debate in a quick thread: 1/18
First, there are a lot of places where Tim and I agree. We agree on the need to replace fossil fuels with clean energy, and to get emissions down to zero. We agree GDP is a poor proxy for human wellbeing, and that modern economies have huge problems with inequality. 2/
Where we differ is on whether technology allows us to "decouple" economic activity from its environmental impact. 3/
Read 18 tweets

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