Thread by @NDISDeane

The NDIA released the latest #NDIS Quarterly Report late yesterday. It's full of fancy graphs & charts & arrows going up, up, up all designed to illustrate the line of "cost blowout". But the fancy pictures don't tell the whole story. ndis.gov.au/about-us/publi…

All through the report there is a heavy reliance on saying plan payments are increasing. Hate to tell you folks at the NDIA - that is the way the #NDIS is supposed to work. People are allocated money and then they spend it on support.

The #NDIS is so complicated that it takes a while for people to get the hang of it. And there are not enough services anyway. Particularly outside metro areas. So it takes people a while to start spending.

So the longer people are in the #NDIS, the more of their funds they tend to spend. People tend to spend less than half of their first plan. By the time they are up to four or five years in the scheme, they spend about 75%. (note not 100%)

So when you show this graph it makes sense - payments increase the longer people are in the scheme. #NDIS (apologies to all those who use screen readers - there is alt text)

Compare this to the graph underneath it. This shows average annual committed supports - basically the size of an average #NDIS plan. This is also going up - but not as much.

So the summary at the beginning of the Quarterly Report focuses on how much plan spending is going up. Because that's the bigger figure and fits the doom and gloom narrative. But it is not the whole story. #NDIS

Can we just take a moment to appreciate that the NDIA and the government are complaining bitterly that people are actually spending their #NDIS funds?

There is another inconvenient detail that you won't find amongst all the pretty coloured graphs and charts. In fact you will have to look at a tiny tiny footnote on p69 to find it. #NDIS

That footnote says that the increases to #NDIS plan size and spending are driven by BOTH increased prices and increased support. In plain language - some of the increase is due to NDIS prices going up. And some is due to people getting more support.

First they bury the footnote. Then they do not provide any further breakdown. How much is due to increased prices? Like the 10% COVID levy last year? And how much is actually due to people getting more support? #NDIS

And finally let me tell you maths is NOT my strong suit. I'm a gal who likes words better. But if me and my Year 8 maths can work this shit out I am pretty sure a whole team of highly skilled actuaries at the NDIA can. #NDIS

The Minister for the #NDIS has said that she wants to have an honest conversation about the sustainability of the #NDIS. I reckon that's right - there is no one more interested in making sure the NDIS is around for years to come than people with #disability and their families.

But to have an honest conversation you have to have all the facts on the table. All the data revealed. All the assumptions on display. Then look where the issues are and talk to people with #disability about what the solutions might be. #NDIS

But we can't have an honest conversation with averages and postcodes and using graphs with plan spending growing because it suits the story you want to tell. #NDIS

Think I need a coffee.

(or can I say with drops to the conservative media because you know they will run with your line and won't ask too many questions) #NDIS

Ok coffee hasn't made me feel any better. Check out this one. Remember when the Minister waxed lyrical about how the #NDIS was making people less functional and more dependent? Here's an article for a refresher: theguardian.com/australia-news…

Well a new graph has appeared in the report. Again apologies to everyone who uses a screen reader. #NDIS

And again in the fine tradition of burying the detail check out the footnote for this graph. #NDIS

So this graph includes participants up to 2017 ONLY. For those unfamiliar with how the NDIS was rolled out - that is everyone who was in one of the trial sites, plus one year of transition to full scheme.#NDIS

So I just checked out the Quarterly Report for that period. As of June 30 2017 there were 90,638 people with an #NDIS plan. ndis.gov.au/about-us/publi…

There are now 450,000 people in the #NDIS. So that graph is based on the first 90,000 only. Nothing since then. #NDIS

The footnote also says those who have any missing data are excluded. What it doesn't say is how many are actually included. So this big bold claim that the #NDIS is making people dependent is based on an unknown number of people in the NDIS four years ago. Right then.

I refer to my earlier comment about my mathematical skills. They are rudimentary (don't tell the people who currently employ me). But even I can work this shit out. #NDIS

@joeldeane has just bought me more coffee.

And just in case it is not clear - I care deeply about the future of the #NDIS. I want it to work for the people who depend on it. But it is precisely because I do care about sustainability that I want to better understand where the issues are -and how to best to address them.