Thread by @drStuartGilmour

@adrianzenz @Nrg8000 @ASPI_org @GuardianAus This figure shows the change in birth rates in Japan from 1985 to 1990, with the municipalities where the change was >30% shown in red. Let’s talk about the problem with using demographic data to try and prove genocide.

@adrianzenz @Nrg8000 @ASPI_org @GuardianAus As you can see from that figure, birth rates in some municipalities (市区町村) in Japan dropped by more than 50%. Here are some example trajectories from 1970 – 2010.

@adrianzenz @Nrg8000 @ASPI_org @GuardianAus Let’s look at Prefectures, which have more stable populations, plotted by median drop: 50% of the prefectures saw a drop bigger than 17%. Prefecture populations in Japan range from 600,000 to 11,000,000, the same range as in Xinjiang.

@adrianzenz @Nrg8000 @ASPI_org @GuardianAus At this time in Japan the oral contraceptive pill (OCP) or other forms of long-acting contraception were not widely available. If drops like this are possible in Japan without any intervention, why are they unusual in China?

@adrianzenz @Nrg8000 @ASPI_org @GuardianAus Next, let’s explore what population control means in Xinjiang. This publication gives a total fertility rate for Hotan county, Xinjiang of 3.3 – 3.5: on average women in Hotan have 3.3 babies in their life. mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/1…

@adrianzenz @Nrg8000 @ASPI_org @GuardianAus Why don’t Zenz et al study the TFR, which measures actual fertility, rather than birth rates? Because they have no connection with Chinese scholars (and don't even reference them!)

@adrianzenz @Nrg8000 @ASPI_org @GuardianAus This paper Zenz et al don’t reference also surveys 1000 Uyghur living in Hotan county, and finds 68% of them want less children. Why be surprised that with a properly managed and funded project birth rates drop by 50% in a few years?

@adrianzenz @Nrg8000 @ASPI_org @GuardianAus Do Zenz and the ASPI know anything about fertility intentions in Xinjiang? They make big assumptions about what Uyghur families want, but research by Chinese people living in those areas doesn’t back them up. Why not?

@adrianzenz @Nrg8000 @ASPI_org @GuardianAus Zenz found sterilization rates of 2.5 per 1000 adult XJ women. Scary stuff! Or is it? In 1990s UK 5 per 1000 adult women were sterilized every year, and recent surveys find 3-7% of UK women are sterilized. : pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/14511963/

@adrianzenz @Nrg8000 @ASPI_org @GuardianAus Neither the birth rate trend in Xinjiang nor the incidence of sterilization are unusual internationally. Chinese studies find high intention to have less children in communities with very high TFR. So what’s going on?

@adrianzenz @Nrg8000 @ASPI_org @GuardianAus Basically Zenz et al are weaponizing demography to repurpose family planning campaigns as genocide. This is very dangerous. If it is successful, in future any family planning campaign can be spun into an accusation of genocide.

@adrianzenz @Nrg8000 @ASPI_org @GuardianAus In future the US far right will no doubt start to recast effective family planning campaigns in low-income countries this way, just as they have tried to do to Planned Parenthood in the USA.

@adrianzenz @Nrg8000 @ASPI_org @GuardianAus This cannot be allowed to happen. Family planning is essential to sustainable communities, crucial in women’s empowerment, and critical to poverty alleviation programs. This misuse of statistics needs to stop and needs to be stopped.

@adrianzenz @Nrg8000 @ASPI_org @GuardianAus Zenz and the ASPI need to 1) Retract these reports; 2) Inform media and NGOs who have broadcast them that they are built on bad data, bad statistics and bad demography; 3) commit never to report on these issues again

@adrianzenz @Nrg8000 @ASPI_org @GuardianAus Decisions are being made internationally partially on the basis of these erroneous reports; they’re being debated at the UN. These organizations need to withdraw these reports and commit never to do this kind of shoddy work again.