#OpenData breeds trust in public health. It has been really heartening following @Pouriaaa and @statsgeekclare on Twitter running the awesome coronavirus.data.gov.uk dashboard in real-time.
If you're not following (where have you been?!) this dashboard started simple, and has just continuously grown in quality and depth, buying in trust from both the public, and from the public health bodies who are institutionally nervous about #OpenData.
The team @Pouriaaa and @statsgeekclare openly share their trials, tribulations, challenges and successes as the platform develops. This has become a superb resource.
What strikes me is that public health has many teams like this doing their best day-in day-out. But lack of #OpenData and closed-doors discussions leads to mistrust.
There is a fear of confusing people with data that is temporary and is subject to being revised and updated. There is a legitimate fear that press and naysayers will pick on every bug to scream incompetence or cover-up.
But the team behind this dashboard seem to have demonstrated that more openness, not less, is the answer. Thoughts?

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More from @ChristoPhraser

12 May
Now peer-reviewed in Nature, “The Epidemiological impact of the NHS COVID-19 App”. Here’s a quick rundown of results & what they mean. We estimated that the app prevented several hundred thousand cases from arising. The app works. nature.com/articles/s4158… 1/n
We evaluated the app during the three months after its launch in England & Wales, Oct through December 2020. During this time, the app was actively used by 16.5 million people, 28% of the total population (map a users, map b, cases). 2/n
During that time period, 560,000 app users tested positive for COVID. This resulted in 1.7 million app users being contact-traced by the app. At an individual level, 4.4 contacts were notified per positive user who consented to have their contacts traced (‘sharing keys’). 3/n
Read 23 tweets
9 Feb
Our paper on evaluating the first three months of the NHS COVID-19 app is out now as a pre-print. A 🧵 1/n github.com/BDI-pathogens/…
@markbriers @cholmesuk and I have written a blog about the research here
The app has been downloaded on over 21 million unique phones, and is used regularly by approximately 16.5 million people (more on this later) 2/n
Read 21 tweets
3 Jan
As primary schools and some secondary schools in England and re-open tomorrow, the situation is unprecedented. The rate of confirmed infection in children is at its highest level yet. The situation is very different from last time there was a debate about school openings 1/n
I think schools should close until case numbers are lower and it has been demonstrated that current restrictions can send the emerging new virus variant into decline. 2/n
I agree that schools should be last to close and first to open. However the current situation can hardly be described as safe, especially for older and vulnerable staff. Staff should be offered vaccines soon. 3/n
Read 6 tweets
1 Sep 20
New preprint: "PopART-IBM, a highly efficient stochastic individual-based simulation model of generalised HIV epidemics developed in the context of the HPTN 071 (PopART) trial" with Mike Pickles, @dr_anne_cori @p_robot and friends. 1/n medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
A few years we found we needed an agent based model to simulate interventions against the HIV pandemic in southern Africa, and ended up developing a new one. We found that with heterogeneities and detailed interventions, ABMs were more parsimonious than compartmental models. 2/n
So we set out to develop a model that was, to paraphrase, "as simple as necessary, but no simpler". We wanted it to be computationally efficient so as to be able to do parameter sweeps and inference. Here it is 3/n github.com/BDI-pathogens/…
Read 13 tweets
30 May 20
“England 'risks Covid-19 surge' without test-and-trace safety net” I agree, and am concerned about rapid easing of lockdown. 1/n. theguardian.com/world/2020/may…
The ONS reports around 8,000 new infections per day, and that has not been declining quickly. 2/n ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…
The central estimate for the number people positive for currently shedding virus is 148,000 people for 27 April to 10 May, 137,000 people for 4 May to 17 May and 133,000 people for 11 May to 24 May. This indicates R very close to 1 during May. 3/n ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…
Read 8 tweets
9 May 20
Digital contact tracing may contribute to epidemic suppression of COVID. What are the trade-offs in choosing centralised or decentralised systems? . 1/n

github.com/BDI-pathogens/…
There are three broad aims to be optimised: prevention of infection and disease, minimisation of disruptive requests to isolate, and maximisation of privacy. 2/n
A clear assessment requires acknowledging that we don't know as much as we’d like about the details of how this virus spreads. And nor do we know enough about the context of how this intervention fits in broader public health measures that will get us safely out of lockdown. 3/n
Read 15 tweets

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