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23 May, 7 tweets, 2 min read
Article starts by the journo saying he was surprised by theft levels in 2016.

Then only data here is a quote from Walgreens guy saying SF theft 4x national average.

THAT’S NOT TREND DATA.

Piece framed as “getting worse,” provides ZERO data for it.

nytimes.com/2021/05/21/us/…
It’s also keeps quoting ppl for oblique refs to “no consequences”—which is obviously made as a dig at Boudin but really seems like a critique of the SFOD. Or Walgreens refusing to hire security.
Also, the article just takes law enforcement’s word that it is theft gangs and property crime reform, w no data.

This has to stop. Law enforcement lies all the time. George Floyd had a medical issue, and look at how they kept misrepresenting bail reform in NY.
If you think I’m being over the top abt police lying, well…

Here are “police sources” saying watches were stolen, a lie so flagrant even the NY Post had to report the truth (much) deeper in the piece:
And this too. The only fair comparison is urban-urban, and this does… not seem to be that. It’s turtles of fear mongering all the way down.
And now it looks like the closures were planned in 2018, which makes it even HARDER to blame Boudin (who is clearly the quiet target here, and who took office in … 2020). Even if the 17 in SF were chosen bc of shoplifting (were they?? Who knows??), it’s for pre-now reasons.
And, um, this. The data isn’t even data. Jesus.

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John Pfaff Profile picture
23 May
In 1971, a man out of prison on furlough shot and killed a police officer. In 1972, another person on furlough in the same state committed another murder.

Law enforcement demanded the program be ended. The governor refused.

Who was this gov? Noted progressive… Ronald Reagan.
The politics of punishment are not some immutable thing. They have changed. They will change again. They are changing, because activists on the street are pushing and agitating and knocking on doors. Because the human cost of the status quo grows worse and worse every day.
It’s easy to tell a static story, where the politics of now is the politics of tomorrow.

But that ignores the very hard, real, and often ignored-by-major-papers work being done to change those politics.

And such takes are not Sagely Objective. They REINFORCE that status quo.
Read 4 tweets
John Pfaff Profile picture
23 May
Worth noting Bill Stuntz’s point abt the 1960s: when crime surged in cities, suburbs didn’t care.

It wasn’t until 1969-onwards—after the unrest in Watts, Detroit, Newark—that white suburbanites cared. When racial threat got triggered.

The politics of crime are… complicated.
Everyone is suddenly an expert on the politics of crime.

Did you know that then-Gov Ronald Reagan resisted an effort to Willie Horton CA’s furlough program? Or that prison pops FELL as crime rose in the 60s?

Like, the history here is complicated.
And worthy noting, too, that the whole ppl-afraid-as-crime-dropped isn’t a story of ignorance but fear.

Fear fell during the 90s, with crime. Rational! We were learning!

Reversed in 2001, for clear reasons.

Again: the politics here are not trivial.
Read 8 tweets
John Pfaff Profile picture
21 May
I think it is really important to make sure we frame the geography here carefully.

Krasner didn’t survive. He won convincingly. And—this is my main point—did ESPECIALLY well where shootings were the HIGHEST.
Saw this in Queens, too: Cabán did well where violence was high.

I’m about to try to get an RA to gather the data for Chicago in 2016, 2020, Boston, StL, etc Bet the pattern holds: more support for progressives in higher-impact nbhds.
Now, things looks MUCH worse at the state level, where crime policy is far more symbolic some impacted communities have far lesser voice: theappeal.org/defund-the-pol…

But it is VITAL to emphasize WHO is opposing the reformers. It’s the LESS-impacted.
Read 6 tweets
John Pfaff Profile picture
20 May
Adding a new section to my crim class, and feel like this may be THE most under-appreciated fact abt the crim legal system: just HOW many cases drop out of it.

Half of crimes don't get reported. Half of THOSE don't get arrested. Maybe 5% of crimes --> prison in the end?
These are rough estimates, merging numbers from not-exactly-comparable datasets.

And yes, much of that data is old. It's the most up to date, but... yeah.

Still, even if off by a factor of 2 (weakest point is the arrest-to-prosecutor part)? There's a LOT of attrition.
The findings have ambiguous political implications.

Tough-on-crime types can look at it and say "man, imagine how much better still things could be if we shored this up."

My take? Non-crim legal system ... things ... are likely what constrain behavior the most.
Read 4 tweets
John Pfaff Profile picture
19 May
So, as someone who (1) wanted Krasner to win, obvs, yet (2) is finishing up something on what the homicide spike means for reform, I think this take on these sorts of pieces is a bit harsh.

They were raising valid questions--and ones last night didn't decisively answer.
I mean, the status quo IS pushing back. I say that not because I think it is somehow the natural order of things. I fight the status quo every day.

But it IS trying to capitalize on the homicide spike and Covid fears, and it is having some--some--successes.
NYC is about the flood the subway with cops, and the frontrunner for mayor is an ex-police captain who wants to bring back stop and frisk.

Philly reelected (yeah yeah) Krasner in a landslide, and Pittsburgh will have a progressive mayor.

It's complicated!
Read 9 tweets
John Pfaff Profile picture
19 May
One other, less optimistic, point about Krasner and the Philly police.

Krasner's decisive win points to the weakness of police unions at the LOCAL level. At the state level, seems like they have more sway.

And, at least in Red states, that's a concern: theappeal.org/defund-the-pol…
State officials can't preempt local elections. If cities elect progressive mayors and counties progressive DAs, a deep-red state lege can't change that

But they can (and are!) impose rules abt police funding, and they can (and are!) give state AGs more power over local cases.
PA is actually a good example of this. Even with a Dem governor, a chaotic end-of-session bill-passing spree allowed Philly's lone GOP state rep to slip in a provision giving the state AG the right to handle all gun cases... but just from Philly. A direct shot at Krasner.
Read 6 tweets

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