But I am saying that just like not everyone should have been an armchair epidemiologist in 2020, they should be wary of being armchair criminologists in 2021.
My last complaint here. How do ppl confidently say “progs gonna lose if they don’t rein in crime” when this happened… checks calendar… last week?
Those most affected by crime are most affected by the costs of harshness too—and are telling us the balance is off. Repeatedly!
Actually, not done yet.
If we are going to talk abt the politics of punishment, can’t just talk abt “progressive policies”: do you mean city, county, state?
State politics far uglier for progs than city-level:
These “crime will hurt progs” takes, that simply assert that without a closer look, obscure WHY and HOW they might:
By energizing those LEAST affected by costs, inefficiencies of severity.
If there’s going to be a backlash, make clear it’s from those who don’t bear its costs!
And this is true and important: those most affected are not monolithic either! They’re demands are understandably complicated, and bet often divided along generational lines.
In 1971, a man out of prison on furlough shot and killed a police officer. In 1972, another person on furlough in the same state committed another murder.
Law enforcement demanded the program be ended. The governor refused.
Who was this gov? Noted progressive… Ronald Reagan.
The politics of punishment are not some immutable thing. They have changed. They will change again. They are changing, because activists on the street are pushing and agitating and knocking on doors. Because the human cost of the status quo grows worse and worse every day.
It’s easy to tell a static story, where the politics of now is the politics of tomorrow.
But that ignores the very hard, real, and often ignored-by-major-papers work being done to change those politics.
And such takes are not Sagely Objective. They REINFORCE that status quo.
It’s also keeps quoting ppl for oblique refs to “no consequences”—which is obviously made as a dig at Boudin but really seems like a critique of the SFOD. Or Walgreens refusing to hire security.
Also, the article just takes law enforcement’s word that it is theft gangs and property crime reform, w no data.
This has to stop. Law enforcement lies all the time. George Floyd had a medical issue, and look at how they kept misrepresenting bail reform in NY.
Saw this in Queens, too: Cabán did well where violence was high.
I’m about to try to get an RA to gather the data for Chicago in 2016, 2020, Boston, StL, etc Bet the pattern holds: more support for progressives in higher-impact nbhds.
Now, things looks MUCH worse at the state level, where crime policy is far more symbolic some impacted communities have far lesser voice: theappeal.org/defund-the-pol…
But it is VITAL to emphasize WHO is opposing the reformers. It’s the LESS-impacted.
Adding a new section to my crim class, and feel like this may be THE most under-appreciated fact abt the crim legal system: just HOW many cases drop out of it.
Half of crimes don't get reported. Half of THOSE don't get arrested. Maybe 5% of crimes --> prison in the end?
These are rough estimates, merging numbers from not-exactly-comparable datasets.
And yes, much of that data is old. It's the most up to date, but... yeah.
Still, even if off by a factor of 2 (weakest point is the arrest-to-prosecutor part)? There's a LOT of attrition.
The findings have ambiguous political implications.
Tough-on-crime types can look at it and say "man, imagine how much better still things could be if we shored this up."
My take? Non-crim legal system ... things ... are likely what constrain behavior the most.
So, as someone who (1) wanted Krasner to win, obvs, yet (2) is finishing up something on what the homicide spike means for reform, I think this take on these sorts of pieces is a bit harsh.
They were raising valid questions--and ones last night didn't decisively answer.
State officials can't preempt local elections. If cities elect progressive mayors and counties progressive DAs, a deep-red state lege can't change that
But they can (and are!) impose rules abt police funding, and they can (and are!) give state AGs more power over local cases.
PA is actually a good example of this. Even with a Dem governor, a chaotic end-of-session bill-passing spree allowed Philly's lone GOP state rep to slip in a provision giving the state AG the right to handle all gun cases... but just from Philly. A direct shot at Krasner.