Thread by @RogerPielkeJr

Pielke Jr., R. 2000. Policy Responses to El Niño 1997-1998: Implications for Forecast Value and the Future of Climate Services. In S. Changnon (Ed), 2000. El Niño, 1997-1998: The Climate Event of the Century, Oxford University Press.
oxford.universitypressscholarship.com/view/10.1093/o…

An analysis of policy responses to climate forecasts associated w/ 97/98 El Nino in US & argued that the relationship of forecast skill and societal value of the forecast is highly complex, the former did not dictate the latter

Pre-pub version free here:
sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/admin/publicat…

Using the framework of this 2000 paper:
One day, soon likely, there will be a debate over skill vs value associated with the RCPs

The wrongness of RCP8.5 is inevitable to be recognized

The debate will then shift to whether its wrongness contributed to value in policy advocacy

A proper analogy to this framing will be the decision to go to war in Iraq, similarly motivated by flawed projections (of WMDs)

For war advocates ends (war) justified the means (flawed intelligence)

To be asked in climate, do ends (action) justify the means (flawed science)?

I discuss such "noble cause corruption" of science in Chapter 7 of The Honest Broker
amazon.com/Honest-Broker-…

Science in politics can be effective without being correct

This creates a powerful tension for the scientist who is also advocate of a cause, truth vs power?

/END