“counter-opinion masquerading as fact checking”

Very good look at “fact checking” by @JohnTierneyNYC
I documented the clear use of flawed information by “Climate Feedback” to censor views apparently accurate but I welcomed
⤵️
MIT’s Emanuel has a fine academic record but he also states that his extreme views on disaster contradict the IPCC consensus

By selecting him as a “fact checker” to censor others, Facebook is able to stealthily counter the IPCC consensus while still invoking “facts”

Clever!
Emanuel is a regular go-to by reporters to counter IPCC - not directly but by countering those who invoke the IPCC consensus on extreme weather and disasters

Emanuel was called in to justify removing me at 538 in 2014 & more recently is used to bludgeon @ShellenbergerMD

Facts!
If you ever wonder why my research on hurricanes & disasters is never mentioned in the major media despite being widely cited & in IPCC, it’s very good science but very bad “facts”
No reporter wants to risk being “fact checked” by citing these bad facts🤷‍♂️

tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.10…
MIT's Emanuel has effectively monetize RCP8.5 by selling hurricane projections to gov't & industry (including fossil fuel)

I wouldn't deny anyone the chance to make a buck off their expertise, but these bucks should be relevant when appointing "independent fact checkers"😎
I was once a co-collaborator with Emanuel (& R. Mendelsohn) on a World Bank project on hurricane risk (L)

I resigned from the project when I learned how much $👀 Emanuel was being paid by the WB to produce "synthetic hurricane tracks" (R)

Emanuel has been after me ever since
Emanuel uses RCP8.5 in extreme projections at odds with IPCC & uses those pubs to recruit clients for his business selling "synthetic hurricane tracks" from these papers
He uses his "fact checking" platform against anyone who openly expresses a more mainstream view of hurricanes
Don't take it from me, Emanuel associates (below) almost all of his publications since ~2006 to the marriage of his research & his business
windrisktech.com/publications.h…
So when Emanuel was writing in 2014 to undercut my peer-reviewed research on hurricanes & disasters, you may have thought he was making a set of scientific arguments. Maybe so, but he was also writing to preserve a business model, a very lucrative one
Emanuel has parlayed his standing into a prominantrole as "fact checking" gatekeeper at Climate Feedback, where he routinely attacks anyone who cites IPCC consensus on extreme events here are two false claims from Emanuel just this month . . .
First
In a "fact check" of a new book by Steven Koonin Emanuel cites a recent PNAS paper (L) but fails to reveal that that paper was followed by a major correction (R) that undercut the findings Emanuel is citing

Fact check fail
Second
Emanuel says "no one familiar with the global record of tropical cyclones would look at data prior to 1980"
There is plenty of data worth looking at

Just to cite one example, we've published global data on TC landfalls from 1970
journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/…

Fact check fail
Kerry's a nice guy
He also is massively conflicted in his dual roles as a highly successful RCP8.5 salesman & powerful "independent fact checker" of RCP8.5-based claims

And Kerry is not unique in this
It persists because other than right here, you'd never know about it
/END
*unwelcomed

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More from @RogerPielkeJr

23 May
Pielke Jr., R. 2000. Policy Responses to El Niño 1997-1998: Implications for Forecast Value and the Future of Climate Services. In S. Changnon (Ed), 2000. El Niño, 1997-1998: The Climate Event of the Century, Oxford University Press.
oxford.universitypressscholarship.com/view/10.1093/o… Image
An analysis of policy responses to climate forecasts associated w/ 97/98 El Nino in US & argued that the relationship of forecast skill and societal value of the forecast is highly complex, the former did not dictate the latter

Pre-pub version free here:
sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/admin/publicat… Image
Using the framework of this 2000 paper:
One day, soon likely, there will be a debate over skill vs value associated with the RCPs

The wrongness of RCP8.5 is inevitable to be recognized

The debate will then shift to whether its wrongness contributed to value in policy advocacy
Read 5 tweets
20 May
Why is RCP8.5 as BAU here to stay?

"Climate intelligence" ➡️Here's 40 billion reasons
tmcnet.com/usubmit/2021/0… ImageImage
What a world we live in
doi.org/10.1016/j.erss… Image
I just Goggled climate intelligence & consultant
This came up

You can make >$300k playing around with pretend worlds of RCPs and SSPs ImageImage
Read 4 tweets
15 May
Deposition in Mann vs. CEI/National Review rogerpielkejr.com/2021/05/15/dep…
In it I discuss Climategate, The Hockey Stick, Grijalva, 538, IPCC, Mann's years of attacks on me and others & the differences between fraud as a catch-all colloquialism and the formal definition of research misconduct in science . . .
An excerpt . . .
Read 4 tweets
14 May
It is inside baseball⚾️
But who know will know

For those following interminable saga of Mann v CEI
Some remarkable new documents online
1-Oreskes deposition: dropbox.com/s/xwn9vv8qbrhs…
2-Steyn memo: steynonline.com/documents/1111…
3- Steyn uncontested facts: steynonline.com/documents/1097…
Oreskes provides an incredible look at the intolerance expressed towards anyone with a divergent view to Mann

It also give a disturbing peek at the array of people and organizations working behind the scene to delegitmize those with such views

UCS was running PR for Mann
These are incredible passages from the Steyn docs
They jibe with my personal experience ImageImage
Read 4 tweets
13 May
Pennsylvania state climate assessment just published
Relies centrally on RCP8.5 as BAU
Prepared by yet another "climate consultancy" that trades in RCP8.5 analyses
penncapital-star.com/energy-environ…
The PA report also confuses growth in wealth with climate trends, using the widely misused "billion dollar disaster" metric of @NOAA
I have no idea how much public money across the US is being spend on "climate consultants" to produce dodgy reports based on RCP8.5 and billion$ disasters, but it has to be an awful lot ... It's like spending public health money on homeopathy instead of vaccines
Read 6 tweets
10 May
“A new 46-person federal scientific integrity task force with members from more than two dozen government agencies will meet for the first time on Friday. Its mission is to look back through 2009 for areas where partisanship interfered with...”
apnews.com/article/donald…
The idea presented in this piece that the politicization of science by presidents started with Ronald Reagan is laughable

Here is an Eisenhower anecdote from our science advisors project

The politicization of science in the White House has deep roots

sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/admin/publicat… Image
Siri, what is “irony”?

President Biden’s OSTP political appointees just reassigned the climate scientist leading the US National Climate Assessment in order to present a “less nuanced” view of climate change Image
Read 4 tweets

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