Thread by @SBF_Alameda

1) Ok, so something which I think is relevant:

1) Over the last week, ~$20B of longs have been liq'd
2) Right now, OI ~ $20B

coingecko.com/en/exchanges/d…

2) So that means....

I think (?) that means we have to be nearing the end of the futures liquidations.

A lot of the remaining OI is very unlikely to be liq'd.

But, there are other types of liquidations.

3) Spot margin trading, for instance.

FTX has ~$1b of OI on ftx.com/spot-margin/le…, but that number has been more stable.

Bitfinex has another ~$2B.

So there could be *some* more liqs, but not a ton.

4) Then, there are OTC loans. Are those getting called? I'd guess not: things are still up a lot this year, so probably most people are in the green still!

And OTC borrow/lending tends to happen on longer timescales.

5) Finally, the Huobi/OK rumors.

I don't know what will happen exactly; but together they have ~$3B of relevant OI that might have to close, plus a bunch of possible selling of some specific coins, but probably not a ton in the majors.

6) Now, this doesn't necessarily answer what will happen to prices: people can always sell and buy.

But I think there isn't a ton of *forced* selling left; there could be a bit, but not as much as we've seen so far.

7) One other factor: are chinese miners selling BTC/ETH?

If so, how much have they sold, and how much do they have left? I legit have no idea.