Belarus today used its security agencies and a military fighter jet forcibly to seize an EU civilian airliner flying between two EU/ NATO capitals & abduct one of the passengers. /1.
The threat of devastating, fatal military force against the airliner is obvious & undeniable. (If you don’t believe me, ask any civilian pilot what the calculus is when faced with such a situation). /2.
The abducted passenger is threatened with extrajudicial execution. (Belarus has no credible judicial process). /3.
Call it state air piracy if you wish. Or state terrorism.
Either would be extraordinarily serious. And demand that a ruinous political, economic & security price be paid by those responsible in Belarus & those who facilitate them. /4.
If any aspect whatever of this act is permitted to stand, every EU & NATO government will, rightly, no longer carry credibility in their most basic duty to their countries & peoples. Security, under the rule of law. /5.
Back to the original question. One on which all EU & NATO heads of government have urgently been briefed today.
Or should have been.
Is this an act of war? /6.
It doesn’t need to be for all the above to remain true.
It probably doesn’t meet the requirements of Articles 5 & 6 of the North Atlantic Treaty (NATO collective defence). /7.
But today has demonstrated, even (surely) to those who prefer not to see, that NATO’s a hairsbreadth away from direct military confrontation in Europe. /8.
Any EU or NATO leader who fails to recognise that, isn’t paying attention.
Any who continues to attempt to ally their country to Lukashenka or his backers, should be paid close, irresistible attention by the USA & its true European allies.
Remember Sunday 23 May 2021. /9. End
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That in turn throws into question whether the current legal & constitutional arrangements represent the settled “will of the people” in Scotland.
And, if they don’t, whether they’re sustainable. /2.
Brexit, the subsequent shift toward greater support for Scottish independence, the Scottish parliamentary majority achieved ob 6 May for an independence referendum, & the local rebellion against Home Office officials in Glasgow, all suggest not. /3.
There are many & varied, often highly debatable, claims as to what Brexit’s “about”.
One point, at least, is beyond any reasonable challenge.
Brexit is & always has been necessarily, unavoidably about Ireland. /2.
The legal & political realities are clear. The only workable, sustainable Brexit for the UK of Great Britain & Northern Ireland is one in which it remains in (or now rejoins) the EU customs union & single market. Or substantially identical arrangements. All else is hot air. /3.
We don’t know who the “senior ally” of @BorisJohnson quoted by @Telegraph is. We can guess. @DavidGHFrost well knows that if the Northern Ireland Protocol is “dead in the water”, so is the “oven-ready” Brexit. Either that or the Good Friday Agreement. /1.
So, which is it, folks? The “senior ally” complains that the NIP breaks the GFA. That means Boris’ Brexit does. Recall: we’re talking about a legally binding international agreement. And we know @BorisJohnson@DavidGHFrost & the Cabinet would never break international law. /2.
Obviously that also means they would never countenance a border across Ireland. We all know the upshot of all that is the UK has to accept the need to return to the EU’s customs union & single market. Or substantially identical arrangements. /3.
Read @LordRickettsP’s book, “Hard Choices: What Britain Does Next”. You simply won’t get a better account anywhere of what it’s been like trying to guide the UK through the tectonic shifts of global power these last few decades. You’ll learn much. If you’re willing. /1.
No one who knows @LordRickettsP - considerate, calm, clear-sighted - would think of him as brutal. But don’t be fooled. His book isn’t for the faint of heart. If this extract strikes a chord with you, you’ll want to read more. If it doesn’t, you need to.👇/2.
As @LordRickettsP says, quoting Thucydides: “The strong do what they can & the weak suffer what they must”. And, as others have pointed out: on the global stage, all European powers are small. The difference lies between those who’ve understood that & those who haven’t. /3.
What’s fascinating about @lewis_goodall’s report👇of @ukhomeoffice reaction after a senior police officer in Glasgow decided to release people detained by UK officials is the begged questions.
Who are “the frontline”?
Which is “our country”?
Who’s in charge?
A🧵/1.
Clearly, there were two “frontlines” in this case (not counting what the HO described as a “mob”): UK immigration officials, & the (Scottish) police. /2.
And there are two countries. The UK. And Scotland. That’s far from a purely historical, emotional or cultural point. Although it’s that too. It’s a political, legal & operational one. As we saw in Glasgow earlier. /3.
UK vaccine distribution, which has been better than many, worse than some, doesn’t bring dead people back. Nor does it reverse bereavement. Of 130,000 Covid deaths in the UK, the vast majority were entirely avoidable. /2.
Even taking a lenient view of a series of catastrophic failures last year, 100,000 were. US research suggests a “kin bereavement multiplier” of 9. This looks at family, not friends. Including the latter would give a higher multiplier. /3.