Thread by @SwarajyaMag

Q: When and where did the second wave begin?

A: Data suggests that the origins of the second wave lie in the heart of the so-called farmers’ agitation, from early January 2021 onwards.

Also, spread of 2nd wave mirrors movement of farmers' protest.

swarajyamag.com/politics/data-…

The data is publicly available—origins of the second wave can be traced to the heart of the so-called farmers’ agitation, from early January 2021.

swarajyamag.com/politics/data-…

Data is clear: the second wave has its origins in the farmers’ protests – exactly as was feared at the time – a full month before fresh, lethal clusters began to ravage Mumbai and Pune.

swarajyamag.com/politics/data-…

An analysis of publicly available data charts a chronological path through Punjab, Haryana, onto Delhi, and a second surge exactly a fortnight after the Republic Day mayhem at the Red Fort, which resulted in the UK variant accounting for the bulk of the cases in that region.

As we from the chart, declining trend of the Punjab curve (the black line) comes to a stop in the first week of Jan 2021, from when on, it flat-lines for a full month around the 200 cases/day mark until the first week of February, after which it starts to rise again.

Specifically, Amritsar started flat-lining on 4 January, Ludhiana on 6 January, and Jalandhar on 7 January.

Pertinently, Ludhiana (the red line in chart) actually starts to exhibit a distinct rising trend of cases from 8 January.

Thus, three central premises may be drawn from the data surveyed:

One, the second wave didn’t begin only when cases started rising, but actually when the preceding, declining trend ended.

Two, the origins of the second wave are to be found in various parts of the Punjab, Haryana and Chandigarh, in early January 2021, and *NOT* in Maharashtra a month later as is popularly assumed.

Three, it appears that the decline stage of the first wave of farmers' protest merged with the influx of the UK variant.

swarajyamag.com/politics/data-…