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Dmitry Grozoubinski Profile picture
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24 May, 9 tweets, 4 min read
1/ @SamuelMarcLowe, @Annaisaac and I started our show to accessibly break down trade issues in the headlines without the stress of a 3 minute TV slot or a pundit yelling at us.

Tonight, we talked through the most common questions about the Aus-UK FTA.

Some clips below!
2/ First, for those who haven't been following the debate, here's @Annaisaac summarizing what we know about the Australia-UK FTA and why it's proven controversial.

twitch.tv/videos/1033995…
3/ Will the FTA destroy British farming? Will the FTA make food radically cheaper for the nation's poor?

@SamuelMarcLowe thinks the answer to both is "probably not" and explains why he thinks everyone should calm down:

twitch.tv/videos/1033995…
4/ Many have questioned whether a Free Trade Agreement to make it easier to import and export things to a country so far away will have implications for climate change and carbon.

We engage with the argument here:

twitch.tv/videos/1033995…
5/ Animal welfare, hormone beef and British standards have become a hot-button topic around this FTA.

We could do an entire show on this topic alone, but we did our best to provide an even-handed analysis of the valid points on all sides:

twitch.tv/videos/1033995…
6/ A frequent question I get asked is what will be the options for a future UK government if it chooses to pull out of this deal.

A brief explanation of the likely exit clause:

twitch.tv/videos/1033995…
7/ Finally, the Australia-UK FTA is viewed by many, including the UK government as a stepping stone to CPTPP Membership.

What is a tariff free deal likely to mean for CPTPP accessions, and what are the negotiating dynamics to be aware of?

twitch.tv/videos/1033995…
8/ We hope you find the above clips useful and interesting, and a huge thank you to those who joined us in chat.

Don't forget, you can watch the full episode (and all other episodes of All the Goods Trade Puns Were Taken) here:

twitch.tv/videos/1033954…
8a/ I think I may have linked the wrong clip in tweet 3!

THIS is @SamuelMarcLowe arguing everyone should chill out about the Australia-UK FTA.

twitch.tv/videos/1033995…

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Dmitry Grozoubinski Profile picture
19 May
1/ Since no one asked, here's a thread on the UK-Australia FTA.

Biases on the table:
- I was an Australian trade negotiator
- I have trained many of DIT's negotiators, likely including some of the ones working on this FTA
- I'm neoliberal scum who generally thinks tariffs = bad
2/ Like we all warned, most Free Trade Agreements, and all Free Trade Agreements including Australia, come down to agriculture.

Australian trade policy tends to be laser focused on getting beef, lamb, dairy and wheat into markets it's currently locked out of.
3/ Reports suggest that Liz Truss, with the Prime Minister's backing, is pushing to give Australian products complete tariff and quota free access to the UK market, phased in over 10-15 years.

Another faction, lead by Eustice and Gove is pushing back arguing for "TRQs" instead.
Read 23 tweets
Dmitry Grozoubinski Profile picture
15 May
Because motivations are unknowable, it's hard to retroactively distinguish "trying to get my buddy a lucrative government contract" from "trying to get a bargain for the taxpayer."

That's why there are strict rules against Ministers interfering in procurement regardless of goal.
No matter how dodgy the deal, a Minister can always claim they thought it was a badly needed offering at a great price and that it would be wrong to penalise the vendor for being their friend.

But that's not supposed to be a defense.
If there are good deals on badly needed products or services out there, the procurement process is supposed to find and contract them on its own, without Ministers writing to Ministers to help it along.

If that's not happening either the vendor or the process sucks.
Read 4 tweets
Dmitry Grozoubinski Profile picture
5 May
1/ This is a huge symbolic win for campaigners, but it could mean a number of things depending on the Administration's strategy here and what it does next.

A quick thread on three options I can see: the straight forward, the cynical, and the screws.
2/ Option #1: It is what it is.

This is 100% what it appears to be. The US negotiates a few technical changes to the waiver and signs up, likely leaving the EU, Switzerland and other hold outs too isolated to maintain opposition.

The waiver passes largely unchanged.
3/ There is heated debate about whether the passage of the waiver will mean more vaccines in the short to medium term.

I'm not really qualified to weigh in on that, but one has to believe an IP waiver could shake some progress loose somewhere, and we need that right now.
Read 10 tweets
Dmitry Grozoubinski Profile picture
30 Apr
During the UK-EU FTA talks, I was frequently asked why the EU were insisting on securing fishing rights as part of that deal, and not in separate subsequent annual negotiations.

This. This is why. It wanted to avoid being in the situation the UK now finds itself in with Norway.
In December, the UK signed a continuity agreement with Norway and Iceland garaunteeing their fish tariff free access to the UK.

The press release even bragged about it.

gov.uk/government/new…
With tariff free access secured, the fisheries negotiations became a strait swap - access to UK fishing waters vs access to Norwegian waters.

That appears at least to have significantly reduced the UKs leverage. 🤷‍♂️
Read 5 tweets
Dmitry Grozoubinski Profile picture
29 Apr
1/ Last night on the stream, inspired by the obvious, I talked about the three reasons transparency around gifts and loans is so important.

You're welcome to listen, but it was a little long and disjointed so I'll also summarize in this thread 👇.

twitch.tv/videos/1005252…
2/ Failing to be transparent around gifts and loans, especially comparatively small ones, can seem like a pretty minor infraction.

No one seriously thinks you can buy the Prime Minister of a G7 country for a few gold curtains.

But that's not why we have transparency rules.
3/ Transparency rules exist for three reasons:

1⃣ Scrutiny
2⃣ Security
3⃣ Perception

They are important, even if you don't think the Prime Minister should face serious electoral or career consequences for allegedly breaking them in this instance. They deserve explanation.
Read 9 tweets
Dmitry Grozoubinski Profile picture
20 Apr
There's a hardworking group of UK negotiators in DIT trying to make progress on this deal.

They really don't need this kind of 'support' from whichever Liz Truss' "ally" thinks this Bullingdon Club ruggers bants crap is helpful.
Like, genuinely what's the dream here?

"She thinks I'm inexperienced does she? I'll show her! Here Minister, here's some fresh concessions and no need to worry about our agricultural market asks. I'm sure once I explain you called me amateurish our farmers will understand."
The very best case scenario is that after mouthing something unprintable in his hotel room and having a bit of a seethe session with his staff, Dan Tehan orders the negotiation team to ignore it and proceed as before, and does so himself at their meeting.
Read 6 tweets

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