"She thinks I'm inexperienced does she? I'll show her! Here Minister, here's some fresh concessions and no need to worry about our agricultural market asks. I'm sure once I explain you called me amateurish our farmers will understand."
The very best case scenario is that after mouthing something unprintable in his hotel room and having a bit of a seethe session with his staff, Dan Tehan orders the negotiation team to ignore it and proceed as before, and does so himself at their meeting.
The worst case scenario is that this article is agenda item one, and his first question to the Minister is whether she shares the assessment of her allies, if not whether she will be taking disciplinary action, and when he can expect his formal apology.
It's all just so infuriating and exhausting.
Clowns. Utter clowns, inexplicably in position to undermine and screw over hard working and chronically underpaid civil servants.
He's a former DFAT officer who was in the then trade minister's office in 2002-2005, when Australia negotiated AUSFTA, an FTA with a minor economic power you may have heard of called the USA.
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1/ If you missed the stream tonight, the full recording of @GeorgeMRiddell explaining Brexit and services trade is now available here: twitch.tv/videos/9774989…
It's pretty long though, so I've clipped answers to some of the bigger questions in this thread.👇
2/ What ARE financial services and how are they traded?
A consistent pattern with Brexit disruption is large, established and well capitalised players being able to roll with the punches while smaller operators get knocked out.
1️⃣ Bigger firms have economies of scale on everything from paperwork to shipping.
2⃣ Bigger firms less likely to send mixed groupage consignments of lots of different things (customs nightmare).
3️⃣ Bigger firms have on house expertise, and/or can more easily afford bespoke external experts.
4⃣ Bigger firms are more able to shape policy, enjoying better formal access (consultations), semi-formal access (lobbying), and informal access (kids at same school as Ministers).
On the one hand, experts warned for years about the impact of Brexit red tape on British businesses.
On the other, I'm not sure ten trade nerds tweeting their hearts out in their spare time is the optimal way to deliver critical business information to a country of 65 million.
Probably the most followed pure customs expert in the discussion is @AnnaJerzewska. She's followed by 28,000 people.
If every single one of those people were a business owner trading with the EU (they're not), that's still less than 20% of the UK businesses that do so.
When Anna (or @SamuelMarcLowe, or @DavidHenigUK or @AllieRenison etc.) get invited to do TV or Radio, they generally get under 10 minutes, most of which is spent reacting to whatever insane thing is the Westminster Talking Point Du Jour.
In an alternate universe where the UK is lagging badly in vaccines and a Welsh factory is insisting on exporting them to the EU to honor some fine point of contract law, the UK papers would be calling for immediate nationalization of all pharma and the invasion of Belgium.
I think vaccine nationalism is terrible, and I hope the EU doesn't do (more of) what is being suggested they might. I think it's self-defeating, parochial and more likely to make things worse than better...
... but I don't pretend not to understand the political incentives.
All politics is local and all politics is at least a little bit shitty.
Every time foreign aid is in the news anywhere there are 10 headlines about how we should be 'spending that money at home'.
And that's with money, which the government can literally print. This is vaccines.
2/ Salami tactics is where, when confronted with a really powerful but binary deterrent (like nuclear weapons or tearing up the Protocol and building a border), you achieve your goals bit by bit, never taking any one specific step so dramatic it justifies that deterrent's use.
3/ This is to an extent the situation the EU finds itself on the receiving end of with regard to Northern Ireland.
As part of the WA Boris Johnson agreed to put a goods border inside his own territory thus preserving the Single Market... while promising his own side he didn't.