1/x Everything from Tuesday still applies: there’s a lack of buying pressure w/ 👸&🦥 @ the 🏖 during the🪟of weakness, & that paired w/ a Memorial Day BBQ FED Gary 🦍explains why we are likely to be stuck between a 🪨 & a hard place for quite some time. looking fwd, past
2/x Memorial Day, into next week, tho There are several clues that the summer duldrums are moving in for an extended stay....we have 1/BOM flows followed by 2/ 👸& 🦥 return. Then 3/an increasingly hedged Fed meeting, where taper talk is largely priced in and dealers are hedged
3/x 4/followed by preparations for the quarterly JP Morgan Vol Crush front run. 5/ a supportive July Vixperation/OpEx period 6/ & finally bullish effects tied to the Olympics... IOW the calendar isn’t a 🐻’s friend...W/a move back above the 1.5 stdev up, where it’s likely to play
4/x a game of 🐔, we’d point to summer long structural tail winds in the form of more stable rates, more muted commodity prices, more bearish sentiment, & a technical healthy correction in🕰to kick off the next🦵to the🌙... accordingly, it’s a perfect time to look to
5/x dispersion trades to digest highly likely ST index pinning. Watch the NDX & meme names for leadership for the next 🦵higher, as we are likely to 👀short squeezes in the oversold names & Gary 🦍’s likely to limit the upside for SPX
6/6 for SPX. So watch for a continued ST countertrend growth/value unwind. Don’t be 🐕-matic. Be 💦...Enjoy the 🏖 w/👸 & some BBQ w/🦍... have a great Memorial Day!!! 🍀

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More from @jam_croissant

26 May
1/x Low Volume=Short ‘🥐 Crumbs’, today...SPX options volume today was a measly 540k, <Xmas eve & lowest volume YTD...Such is the power of Gary🦍, as🥐’s know, there is no fear due to yesterday’s sharp rally & IVol contraction, paired w/ Gamma dramatically oversupplied in 5/28
2/x due to pre-long weekend /post-long -weekend dealer positioning & of course the JPM ‘Fed meeting 🧲’, JuneQ 4115 calls continuing to saddle dealers w/ the most desirable IVol on the board for cheap. Pair that w/the fact that this rally has ST upside momentum challenges, due to
3/x a lack of buying pressure w/ 👸&🦥 @ the 🏖 during the🪟of weakness, & it explains why we are stuck between a 🪨 & a hard place... looking fwd, past Memorial Day, into next week, There are several clues that the summer duldrums are lurking...we have 1/BOM flows followed by
Read 9 tweets
24 May
1/x If I told you that crypto was going to lose half of its value, Taiwan’s market would have an -8%+ day, ARKK would be imploding, & the NDX was dramatically underperforming, that broad market indices were losing momentum & breadth and were technically
2/x broken on many metrics, that seasonality was fading, quality/ defensives were outperforming, The Fed was floating critical Taper trial🎈🎈, that there are múltiple clues of Fed speculation tightening behind the scenes, that real EarnYield was hitting 40 yr lows, bonds were
3/x blinking defensively green despite dramatic inflationary forces, yet we would have stable price with low volatility despite entering 👸 & 🦥’s post OpEx 🏖 🪟 of weakness, while the S&p would be be sitting -1.5% off all time highs, right on its 20 day SMA...anybody unfamiliar
Read 9 tweets
21 May
1/x With our🦥Prince Charming departing on his cruise, the🪟of weakness back at the WofFortune has officially opened...From a level 1 view there is every reason to believe a decline is more likely than usual in this🪟, for 1 the VIX is starting this🪟having triggered a technical
2/x. Break last weak, 2nd of all the Fed is increasingly floating trial 🎈, about talking about tapering, as it did in the Fed minutes. NTM, Treasury reducing its Gen Acct from $1.6T to < $500B by EOQ & the continued opening of Ndx equity lock ups into EOQ. But...level 2 is
3/x not to be underestimated... sentiment has become exceedingly 🐻’ish, as displayed by HF positioning... I’m sure our 3x weekly 🥐’s & the growing familiarization w/ the🪟’s of weakness is not helping this sentiment either. Pair that offsides positioning, w/ 🚀ing buybacks &
Read 8 tweets
19 May
1/x I’ve been clear that the coming rally off the bottom of the last dip would be a countertrend technical bounce. We’ve been in a Vanna driven opp to STR in her🪟of strength. She single handedly took this market from 4025 —>4175 in a week despite intl. liquidation, NDX/
2/x ARKK/BTC continued weakness, & a dramatic commodity sell off. IMO her work has been nothing short of heroic🦸‍♀️!But poor girl, she can only do so much..After all, I’ve been clear, it was just a matter of ⏰. 🕰 was not a 🐂’s friend... W/ Vixperation, & the (potentially
3/x combustible)FOMC minutes, & Vanna’s long awaited pre-Memorial Day departure for the 🏖 slated for today... the🪟for a rally was closing, & when the deadline for the bulls to regain the 1.5 std dev up of the 20 day in the SPX met a quickly closing 🪟 yesterday, a slide below
Read 7 tweets
17 May
1/x tick tock, ⏰ it’s almost time... With 2.5 days left until Vixperation, the (potentially combustible)FOMC minutes, & Vanna’s long awaited pre Memorial Day departure for the 🏖 slated for 5/19, a deadline for the bulls to regain their footing in the SPX w/ a close above
2/x the 1.5 std dev up of the 20 day is quickly approaching... Given this, and Vanna’s current strength, a Game of 🐔 there seems all but inevitable... as we’ve mentioned, the🪟for a rally is closing, so ironically🕰 is not a 🐂’s friend for once...A decline now when we are
3/x ultimately in a🪟💪🏼 opens the way for something faster & potentially more dangerous when vanna/Charm are forced to leave for the 🏖 amidst an already nascent decline.👀 vanna in the AM...in the ST, If she looks a bit more tired than usual, prepare for a potential opportunity
Read 7 tweets
14 May
1/x So Gary got all fired up w/Taiwán/Japan took away his🍌.but then he realized Vanna/Charm almost always have extra🍌during this🪟of strength...A little bit of cold water (slowing rate of decline) ultimately leads to a decline in IVol from an elevated level, which leads to more
2/x supportive Vanna flows—> which leads to a decline of IVol_—> repeat. Ultimately this rarely means an easing in, but more times than not a full about face reversal back on land. That said 🍌 become less available after Vixperation on 5/19, when Vanna is no longer around.
3/x So, if this market can’t make it above 1.5 std dev up by 5/19-21, there will likely be another, hangry tantrum on the way, and this time potentially much deeper and several weeks long. In the meantime, as long as we are in this💪🏼🪟& above Vanna’s 4115 supply of 🍌’s & Gary is
Read 8 tweets

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