While listening to @Dominic2306 here is @IndependentSage report

independentsage.org/wp-content/upl…

few excerpts

1/n
transmissibility. B167>B117

2/n
Vaccine escape: some. and it is the first real world example

3/n
Consequences of partial escape and higher transmissibility? Higher risk. Aka change the re-opening schedule
4/n
FINAL: "risks new variants evolving with higher levels of vaccine
escape and/or higher transmissibility. The risk of simply waiting and watching is too high.

5/5

@giorgiogilestro @ThManfredi @AurelianoStingi @Doom3Gloom @mtizzoni @Di_SPACE_Lauro

@CrossWordsCW

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More from @gianlucac1

24 May
Ieri sera con @ThManfredi @giorgiogilestro e @Di_SPACE_Lauro siamo stati oggetto, nostro malgrado, di un maldestro e maleducato tentativo di Gatekeeping da parte di @RobertoBurioni

ok. ricevuto.

ma non solo ricevuto. accettato il metodo
1/n
A questo punto aspettiamo dal prof @RobertoBurioni i lavori su:
1) diritto commerciale comparato per quanto riguarda la sua analisi sulla contrattualistica vaccinale tra EU e aziende farmaceutiche
2) diritto internazionale, date le posizioni sostenute a riguardo di

2/n
2)s cio che si possa fare in uno Stato che e' sotto embargo internazionale

3) Chimica industriale, dato che apprendiamo da lui che gli impianti di produzione dei vaccini si possono fare in 3 mesi

4) sociologia. per 'analisi di impatto dell'introduzione del pass vaccinale
3/n
Read 7 tweets
24 Apr
LET ME JUST EXPAND ON THIS

The damage to science of the GBD jackasses goes beyond any calculation

One of the main arguments from them is "with all this attention to Covid19 we are leaving behind all other cures on different patholgies"

REALLY YOU HAVE THE FACE TO SAY THAT
1/n
WITHOUT FEELING ASHAMED??
The reason why doctors are forced to leave behind non elective activities is exactly because Hospital are crowded by Covid19 patients

Whis is the consequence of some Countries, willingly or not consciously or not, having implemented the GBD protocol
2/n
Or the GBD people believe hospital crowding of Covid19 patients is a hoax?

On top just to add to the shame, GBD protocols not only increases risk to potential Covid19 patients (vertical risk), but also spills over in other areas (horizontal risk)
3/n
Read 6 tweets
18 Apr
ON EPIDEMIC, RISK AND FINANCE 3d
I am in the finance business. I deal in equities. Therefore i price risk in the most risky part of the capital structure

Think about a company: Market value is W= debt+equity
if this was 60+40=100 and the market prices W is now 80
1/n
providing no change in bankruptcy risk pricing (ie debt is still priced at par), equity goes to 20 (-50%) while W is only -20%
Avoiding these is what i do for living.
Agents dictate pricing and there is nothing you can do if not taking notice when this happens
2/n
you cannot contend the risk pricing by agents. It happens. If it is wrong, time will tell. You can go against it (namely you buy more equity lower down) but you have to have staying power (money) until your pricing proves correct

what this has in common with epidemiology?
3/n
Read 20 tweets
16 Apr
LA CAUTELA CHE CI VUOLE. NO. NON E' TERRORISMO. SONO I DATI 3d

ricordate i tweets e gli studi

"I VACCINI IN ISRAELE SONO EFFICACI AL 110% DOPO 1 DOSE ANZI BASTA GUARDARE UN VACCINO E SEI A POSTO" ?

1/n
(l'ultima l'ho scritta per ridere ma c'e' uno studio che dice che ti spuntano le Tcells se sei in presenza di un contagiato, ma nn troppo vicino...boh ok)

allora esce uno studio ieri, che tiene conto dello stato delle vaccinazioni israeliane here datadashboard.health.gov.il/COVID-19/gener…
2/n
Lo studio e' questo (600.000 persone) nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…

3/n
Read 13 tweets
13 Apr
ON THE GBD AGAIN: THE LAST ZIG ZAG 3d
sorry to come back again

The last zig zag of the GBD pundits is

"GBD is like the current vaccination campaign which is infact aimed at protecting those at risk first. No difference netween vaccinations and the aims of GBD."

REALLY?
1/n
the GBD is essentially composed by 2 statements which are not possible to unscramble

GBD="Protect those at risk+increase Virus circulation in others to reach HIT "

plus some others explanatory statements in the FAQ: like TTT is useless for SarsCov2, to name one
2/n
many people debunked the GBD.

i did some 3d too on the mathematical side

here in italian

here there is a modelling (not mine) medrxiv.org/content/10.110…

spoiler: GBD does not pass the binomial test

3/n
Read 8 tweets
5 Apr
PROF IOANNIDIS: LETS TAKE IT ON 1/n
The paper (pic) engages in calculating a so called "Global Covid19 IFR" and reaches the conclusion that Covid19 fatality is 0.15% globally, so not distant from flu (0.04-0.08) Image
What social scientists are doing when writing a paper?

They try to extract general rules from the observed phenomena.
When data are "dirty" or "late" or "incomplete" they use models to infer if not the "stopping points" at least the dynamic of the observed phenomena

2/n
So the main findings of Ioannidis meta analysis are that Covid19 fatality is slightly higher than flu: here onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ec…

for a detailed comment on Ioannidis numbers @GidMK did a fantastic job here and on his TL
3/n
Read 14 tweets

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