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G. Elliott Morris Profile picture
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26 May, 7 tweets, 2 min read
The partisan vaccination divide, per new The Economist/YouGov polling:

Among Biden voters:
Fully vaccinated 76%
Partially 10%
Plan to get 7%
Won’t get vaxxed 2%
Not sure 4%

Trump voters:
Fully vaccinated 54%
Partially 6%
Plan to get 3%
Won’t get vaxxed 26%
Not sure 12%
It seems likely that Democratic-leaning areas (cities) will start to reach "herd immunity" over the next month, while rural areas and other Republican-dominated places will take longer — if they ever get there at all
People who won't get the covid vaccine are really ruining things for the rest of us

Notes on representativeness: You have to take sampling error into account.

The combined YouGov data over the last two weeks show 52% of adult citizens have been fully vaccinated. According to the CDC, the number among all adults is 50%. Pretty good...

(I would say it's very likely the "adult citizen" population is also more likely than the "all adults" population to get vaccinated.)
Non-voters are less likely to get vaccinated
More findings from our Economist/YouGov polls here: economist.com/president-joe-…

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More from @gelliottmorris

G. Elliott Morris Profile picture
27 May
The single biggest reason Republicans can pursue anti-democracy positions is because they can win control of federal + state governments with minorities of the vote. Increasing electoral accountability by making outcomes more proportional is not a panacea, but would do a lot.
Of course, we're in this problem largely because Trump put us here, and there aren't a lot of ways to legislate your way out of demagoguery
I have talked privately with people for a while about my doom and gloom here, but the only real solution to *gestures wildly* "all of this" is to write a new constitution
Read 6 tweets
G. Elliott Morris Profile picture
24 May
I don't want to be the "ecological fallacy!" and "look at my regression!" guy but there is a lot of misinformation about vaccine uptake and masking today.

We have 30k interviews from YouGov with actual people and partisanship really is the strongest predictor of behavior
Given what we know about how people react to cues from their political elites and information networks, this is very very obvious
Covid is political because everything is political
Read 4 tweets
G. Elliott Morris Profile picture
19 May
Updated trends in vaccine reluctance from our The Economist/YouGov polls:

The data this week show a continued negative trend in hesitancy, but with early signs of a flattening curve. On average, 68% say they have been or will get vaxxed, 19% say they won't, and 13% are unsure.
Party breakdown: 57% of Republicans say they have or will get a covid-19 shot. That is up by seven points over the last month. But opinion among GOPers who are uncertain about the shot may be hardening up, with fewer likely to change their mind as more persuadable ppl get vaxxed.
On age, the bad news is vax rates for seniors may have maxed out at 76%, w/ a steady 15% being in the hard "no" group.

The good news is there is still quite a ways to go with young people. Half are already vaxxed, and I estimate about ~65-70% are likely to be jabbed in the end.
Read 4 tweets
G. Elliott Morris Profile picture
18 May
Solve a puzzle: How can these all point down(ish)?
The answer is in here somewhere
And in here
Read 4 tweets
G. Elliott Morris Profile picture
14 May
Here's how Biden won in 2020, according to new numbers from Catalist:

1) A surge in turnout among black voters that pushed him over the line in AZ + GA
2) A shift toward Ds among whites, especially suburban college-educated ones, all over the country

economist.com/united-states/…
A lot of press has focused on Democratic losses among Hispanics, but important to look at the other side of the coin too (especially given that, uh, Biden won?). But R losses among whites amounted to far more votes, since they are a larger share of the electorate.
Catalist's numbers suggest a bigger problem for Rs. New voters in 2020 were about as blue as you'd expect based on their age, but much younger than the overall pop. GenZ will only continue to grow as a % of the electorate, & R gains with Latinos will not offset these deficits.
Read 8 tweets
G. Elliott Morris Profile picture
13 May
I have done a lot of math & my final answer is that the difference between a precinct in Kenosha, WI and an identical one 300 miles away was a 1.5-2% decrease in votes for Joe Biden. The police violence & protests in WI last summer almost certainly helped Trump, all else equal.
As with any activism, you have to weigh electoral consequences w/ political gains/messaging, so what I'm not saying here is that "Democrats shouldn't talk about race and policing" or that "Black people shouldn't protest being shot in the back by police" — just validating numbers.
If anything, the dynamic whereby the police can shoot unarmed black ppl point blank, subsequently inflame tensions w/ rioters, plaster the coverage on Fox News and then have their allied political party gain from the fallout is an incredibly distressing & important finding
Read 4 tweets

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