John Bye Profile picture
26 May, 11 tweets, 5 min read
Assuming any of this is true (it is Dominic Cummings, after all), it paints a pretty damning picture of a government hopelessly unprepared and woefully unsuited to dealing with a serious emergency.

dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9…
For starters, apparently the Prime Minister and others were convinced the whole thing was overblown, and that the economic damage from acting would be worse than the death toll from doing nothing.

They saw it as another Swine Flu.

They were wrong.
Once they got past that, herd immunity WAS the initial policy, because they didn't see any alternative. Either 260,000 people die in the spring (the "optimal" strategy!) or even more die in the winter.

He claims there was even talk of asking people to intentionally get infected!
This would certainly explain all the early talk about herd immunity (both on and off the record), as well as Johnson's cavalier talk of shaking hands with covid patients and the virus "triggering a panic" that will do "unnecessary economic damage".

gov.uk/government/spe…
Stricter measures to reduce the death toll further weren't seriously considered, because everyone assumed that people wouldn't accept them.

By the time a "plan B" was bodged together, it was already too late.
But it's Matt Hancock who really got thrown under the bus. Cummings accuses him of repeatedly lying to both ministers and the public (pot, kettle, black), most seriously about assurances that people would be tested before being discharged to care homes.
It's not clear if this is true, and he and Johnson honestly didn't know what was going on, or if he's just scapegoating Hancock for well publicised failings in care homes during the first wave that tragically contributed to tens of thousands of deaths.

He also calls out the chaos caused by attempts to ramp up testing in April to hit an arbitrary target to test 100,000 people a day by the end of the month.

He even accuses Hancock of telling his department to hold back tests to use later in the month to accomplish this!
What we do know is the government only (briefly) hit the 100,000 target (after a remarkable last minute surge) by counting tests put in the post to individuals and "satellite" testing sites (such as care homes) but not actually used towards the total.
It eventually turned out that two thirds of the tests counted when they were sent out were NEVER returned and processed by a lab.

Over 4 million, by the time they stopped exaggerating the figures by publishing "tests made available" as their key metric.

Whether we can trust all of this is open to question.

While Cummings starts by saying that he too "fell disastrously short", it's clear that he sees himself as riding to the rescue, and that his biggest failure was not doing so earlier.

It's self effacing but also self serving.

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More from @_johnbye

27 May
The government seems to have published a shelved PHE study today just to defend Matt Hancock against accusations by Dominic Cummings about discharging patients from hospitals to care homes without testing them for covid.

And the study is flawed, due to that very lack of testing!
It's been widely assumed that many deaths in care homes in the first wave were caused by patients being discharged from hospital without being tested. A policy that continued until April 15th.

This issue was raised by Cummings in his testimony yesterday.

dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9… Image
The study looks at this issue and claims it only caused 286 deaths.

It was conveniently published today, just in time for Jenny Harries to reference in a press conference.

But it's dated April 2021.

And it's clear it was actually written last autumn!

gov.uk/government/pub… ImageImage
Read 11 tweets
23 May
PHE's study on vaccine effectiveness against the Indian B.1.617.2 variant is out, clarifying figures leaked to the FT yesterday.

It confirms the 1st dose is less effective against B.1.617.2, but the 2nd dose still gives similar protection. However...

gov.uk/government/new…
As @fascinatorfun pointed out, the FT figures mixed data from both Pfizer and AstraZeneca jabs.

The study breaks it down by vaccine and, on the face of it, isn't good news for AstraZeneca (ChAdOx1).

But they do say this may be partly due to 2nd jabs starting later for AZ.
Data for both vaccines on preventing symptomatic cases is similar 21+ days after the first dose -

Pfizer:
49% protection vs B.1.1.7
33% protection vs B.1.617.2

AstraZeneca:
51% protection vs B.1.1.7
33% protection vs B.1.617.2

So about a third less effective against B.1.617.2
Read 9 tweets
22 May
Handy thread on vaccine protection against variants.

First dose seems to be significantly less effective against the B.1.617.2 (Indian) variant.

Second dose still provides excellent protection against both the B.1.1.7 (Kent) and B.1.617.2 variants though.
Looking at how effective vaccines are at stopping you from catching covid and developing symptoms -

1st dose:
51% protection against B.1.1.7
33% protection against B.1.617.2

2nd dose:
87% protection against B.1.1.7
81% protection against B.1.617.2

But it's worth remembering that the vaccines also make you less likely to die or become severely ill if you *do* catch covid.

While we don't have data yet on how this translates to B.1.617.2, there's no evidence it's more deadly than other strains.

Read 5 tweets
20 May
Update on the situation in Bolton, courtesy of the covid dashboard.

First up, cases are still rising rapidly. Daily case numbers are almost back to the peak they reached during the second wave that hit the North West hard in the autumn.

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?… Image
This is despite 65% of Bolton's adult population now having had one vaccine dose and 37% having had both.

Not far behind the national average (70% / 40%).

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccin… Image
Probably at least in part thanks to vaccinations, infection rates are still relatively low amongst the over 60s.

But they are now clearly rising.

Note: this data is a few days older than the raw case numbers, so the rates will be even higher now.

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?… Image
Read 7 tweets
16 May
It says a lot that so many politicians and their friends saw the pandemic as a get rich quick scheme.

In this case a disgraced former MP working with an organic dog food company owner (!) to broker a deal with a Hong Kong company, which itself seems to be a middleman. 🙄
Former Tory MP Brooks Newmark emailed Hancock to ask for his help to "make this happen".

Newmark had quit in 2014 after sending explicit photos to an undercover journalist who he thought was a young activist.

Not his first sext, it later emerged.

google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.…
He was lobbying on behalf of Zoe Ley, a former investment banker turned dog food company owner.

She setup a new company in May 2020 which helped broker two PPE deals, worth a total of £258m.

The BBC thinks she personally made over £1m from this.

google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.…
Read 9 tweets
15 May
"Decent hard working folk who aren't covid deniers", at the anti-lockdown protest in London today.

There's someone with a giant Q sign right in the middle of this shot. 🙄
More here, marching alongside covid crank Professor Fenton (who thinks the second wave was mostly false positives).

Pretty much an A to Z of conspiracy theories - QAnon, world government, eugenics, depopulation, child sex rings, microchipping people...

Meanwhile in Canterbury, disgraced former scientist Michael Yeadon (who thinks proposed covid booster shots may be a plot to depopulate the Earth) is addressing people in a park with a PA system.

Having recently complained that he wasn't able to do this.

Read 4 tweets

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