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27 May, 6 tweets, 3 min read
England take-up data, now including 30-39. Data is to Sunday and based on ONS pop'n estimates (NIMS gives lower %s.)

50-54 has levelled off at just over 90%, and the 40s look as though they will at around 85%. We're now making good progress in the upper thirties too.

1/
Second dose progress is much more spread than we saw in Wales yesterday, with good gains this week across all of 50 to 65. This spread may now reflect some of the acceleration to 8 weeks over age 50, with the younger ages more likely to be brought forward.

2/
2nd dose take up is now at 97% over age 70, around 92% at 65-69, and still making progress below that. It would be good to see all age groups get up beyond 95% given the lesser efficacy of one dose against B.1.617.2.

3/
Finally how many 1st doses are still needed? It all depends on take-up at younger age groups. If we assume 75% then it's around 7.5m. That will take around 5 weeks at the current rate, say to the end of June.

But, it could be better than that...
4/
In a couple of weeks the demand for 2nd doses will fall, as we track the fall in first doses in late March. The acceleration for those age 50 confuses the calculations a little, but I think we can expect much more to be available for 1st doses from mid-June.
5/
So even if (as I hope), we get a higher take-up in the under 30s (80% would add around 1m to the total needed), then we should still be able to finish off first doses by the end of June, maybe a little earlier.

6/6

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John Roberts Profile picture
26 May
Wed vaccine update (and Wales commentary)

574k total reported today, up 15% and the highest Tuesday to date. The overall 7D total pushes higher above 4m, and is now just short of its all time high.

1st doses of 186k are up just 7%, and so the 7D total remains around 1.4m.
1/
As expected the surge is in 2nd doses, with 388k up 20%, and takes the 7D total to 2.75m, still a little off it's previous high.

The actual line continues to diverges steadily from the 11W track, but maybe not as quickly as we might have expected.

2/
Comment on Twitter today that Wales is now the best performing country (>1m pop'n) in terms of rollout. So it's useful to see how take-up in lower age groups is shaping up.

The 40's are now over 75%, and the 30's are up to 60%. Even the final age band is nearly up to 40%.

3/
Read 4 tweets
John Roberts Profile picture
26 May
The latest ONS antibody survey is out, and shows increases in all four countries since the last one a fortnight ago.
E: Up from 69.3% to 75.9%
W: from 63.2% to 76.6%
NI from 63.5% to 75.0%

S continues to lag a little, up from 59.2% to 68.6%.

1/
By English region there's a relatively tight range from 71.5% to 75.9%, but that range is slightly puzzling given the overall estimate of 75.9%.

London is a slight outlier at 71.5%, with E Midlands the highest.

2/
By age group, we see the now familiar dips just before second jabs, which is gradually becoming apparent in younger groups (though less prominent than in the higher groups). Over 75 we are now seeing 96%+ results.

Note the fantastic vaccine proportion lines in the 50+ groups!
3/
Read 5 tweets
John Roberts Profile picture
21 May
The latest #infectionsurvey from @ONS shows signs of an increase in England, from 0.07% to 0.09% (or 1 in 1,110), though the CI is from 0.07% to 0.11%, so it's too early to be sure.

Wales stays the lowest at 0.02% for the second week - that's 1 in 4,340.

1/
N Ireland falls from 0.07% to 0.06% (1 in 1,550), and this week Scotland shows the biggest fall, from 0.08% to 0.05% (1 in 1,960).

Note in the chart how wide the CI's are for all but England, so any one week needs to be considered with those in mind.

2/
Possibly surprisingly, given the focus on B.1.617.2 and the NW, that's not the area that is showing signs of increase. Instead ONS notes Yorks/Humber, the North East and South East as the areas where it judges prevalence to be increasing.

3/
Read 7 tweets
John Roberts Profile picture
20 May
England weekly take-up data from the NHS shows good take-up extending down into the 40-49 age band. It's pushed above 80% in the upper half, and looks as though it's likely to get to around that level for 40-44 as well.

Let's hope the thirties are as enthusiastic.

1/
Second doses have been concentrated on the sixties group in the last week, although there's been some progress in the fifties too. This data is up to last Sunday, so there won't be any impact from the acceleration announced last Friday.

2/
2nd dose take-up continues to look excellent, at over 96% above age 70, and with the upper 60's looking like it should surpass 90% in due course.

It's important to get the 2nd dose to get the fullest protection possible. One dose "only" prevents around 85% of serious illness.
3/
Read 4 tweets
John Roberts Profile picture
19 May
Wed vaccine update (& Wales progress)

498k total reported today, just 3% up on last week.

1st doses resume their gradual upward progress, with 174k up 29%. We're now just shy of 37m, so around 10m to go, the exact figure depending on take-up in the younger age groups.

1/ Image
2nd doses were a disappointing 7% down at 324k, so little sign yet of the surge we might have expected with the announcement of bringing forward appointments for the under 50s to 8 weeks.

2/ Image
Over the border, we can see good progress through the younger age groups, with over half the thirties done, and nearly 75% of the forties. There's a definite gradient emerging as we move down below 50, but 75% is still a very respectable figure.

3/ Image
Read 5 tweets
John Roberts Profile picture
19 May
A new paper today published by @Anaes_Journal by @doctimcook and others shows the impact of the second wave on surgery levels. A short thread to summarise the results.

1/
Three surveys were done, corresponding to the greyed areas below, the final one coming at the peak in January. It's thought that those responding (c50% -60%) may reflect those hospitals which coped better, so the results could understate the extent of the impact.

2/ Image
Unavailability of staff was a key issue. You can see below that the predominant reason for this was that staff were redeployed into ICU's rather than absent for other reasons. The expansion of ICU's to cope with COVID patients will have been the cause of this.

3/ Image
Read 7 tweets

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