England weekly take-up data from the NHS shows good take-up extending down into the 40-49 age band. It's pushed above 80% in the upper half, and looks as though it's likely to get to around that level for 40-44 as well.
Let's hope the thirties are as enthusiastic.
1/
Second doses have been concentrated on the sixties group in the last week, although there's been some progress in the fifties too. This data is up to last Sunday, so there won't be any impact from the acceleration announced last Friday.
2/
2nd dose take-up continues to look excellent, at over 96% above age 70, and with the upper 60's looking like it should surpass 90% in due course.
It's important to get the 2nd dose to get the fullest protection possible. One dose "only" prevents around 85% of serious illness. 3/
Finally, here's the PHE cut of the same data, using NIMS population data, which is higher, and thus gives lower, but still very creditable, take-up rates.
4/4
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
The latest #infectionsurvey from @ONS shows signs of an increase in England, from 0.07% to 0.09% (or 1 in 1,110), though the CI is from 0.07% to 0.11%, so it's too early to be sure.
Wales stays the lowest at 0.02% for the second week - that's 1 in 4,340.
1/
N Ireland falls from 0.07% to 0.06% (1 in 1,550), and this week Scotland shows the biggest fall, from 0.08% to 0.05% (1 in 1,960).
Note in the chart how wide the CI's are for all but England, so any one week needs to be considered with those in mind.
2/
Possibly surprisingly, given the focus on B.1.617.2 and the NW, that's not the area that is showing signs of increase. Instead ONS notes Yorks/Humber, the North East and South East as the areas where it judges prevalence to be increasing.
498k total reported today, just 3% up on last week.
1st doses resume their gradual upward progress, with 174k up 29%. We're now just shy of 37m, so around 10m to go, the exact figure depending on take-up in the younger age groups.
1/
2nd doses were a disappointing 7% down at 324k, so little sign yet of the surge we might have expected with the announcement of bringing forward appointments for the under 50s to 8 weeks.
2/
Over the border, we can see good progress through the younger age groups, with over half the thirties done, and nearly 75% of the forties. There's a definite gradient emerging as we move down below 50, but 75% is still a very respectable figure.
A new paper today published by @Anaes_Journal by @doctimcook and others shows the impact of the second wave on surgery levels. A short thread to summarise the results.
Three surveys were done, corresponding to the greyed areas below, the final one coming at the peak in January. It's thought that those responding (c50% -60%) may reflect those hospitals which coped better, so the results could understate the extent of the impact.
2/
Unavailability of staff was a key issue. You can see below that the predominant reason for this was that staff were redeployed into ICU's rather than absent for other reasons. The expansion of ICU's to cope with COVID patients will have been the cause of this.
I nearly missed today's 2 weekly antibody update from @ONS, so here's a brief summary. It's fairly disappointing though, with no material increases, and the modelled curves dipping.
E increases from 68.3% to 69.3% (65.6%, 73.9%)
W is up from 61.0% to 63.2% (58.8%, 68.3%)
1/
S is up from 57.8% to 59.2% (54.8%, 64.4%)
NI is up from 62.5% to 63.5% (57.6%, 71.2%)
Of note the modelled curve for NI is increasing, although the increase from the last update is no greater than the others.
2/
It's interesting that even the unvaccinated age groups are showing nearly 50% prevalence. Further up, the highest age groups are now rising again, as the 2nd dose takes effect, but lower down we're now seeing the dip that we saw earlier in the highest groups.
A summary thread of the latest #REACT survey from @imperialcollege on England infectivity.
The headline is very good news, prevalence has halved since the last round, falling from 0.20% to 0.10%, with R at 0.9 between the rounds.
Round 11 is between April 15 and May 3.
1/
115 positive samples were obtained from 127k tests. Note the slightly lower number of tests this round, which the report notes is due to a lower response rate, suggesting a lower interest in participants as the situation improves.
2/
Between rounds, R is put at 0.9, though slightly higher at 0.94 within the round. This is consistent with recent SAGE views, and not unexpected as the lockdown restrictions are gradually eased.