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27 May, 5 tweets, 2 min read
🔺Is LOT flight 677 from Warsaw to Moscow really going to fly over Belarus?🔺

If it does, what happens?

If it doesn’t, what happens?

Watch this space. Image
Looks like it’s skirting around Belarus. Will it be let into Russian airspace? Image
LOT flight 677 from Warsaw to Moscow avoided Belarus & has entered Russian airspace.

Has Russia backed down? Image
LOT flight 677 from Warsaw to Moscow now well into Russian airspace. The flight path shows clearly how it avoided Belarus.

Entirely unclear what the status now is of the apparent Russian threat to prevent entry into its airspace for flights from the EU which avoid Belarus. Image
LOT flight 677 Warsaw to Moscow has landed safely there, having entered Russia after avoiding Belarusian airspace.

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More from @AndrewPRLevi

Andrew Levi Profile picture
24 May
.@pritipatel’s claim is wrong on the specific case: no one votes for a particular raid to take place.

It’s also out of line with Scottish public opinion.

Which raises the question of whether the authority of the Home Secretary, or her colleagues, is accepted in Scotland. /1.
That in turn throws into question whether the current legal & constitutional arrangements represent the settled “will of the people” in Scotland.

And, if they don’t, whether they’re sustainable. /2.
Brexit, the subsequent shift toward greater support for Scottish independence, the Scottish parliamentary majority achieved ob 6 May for an independence referendum, & the local rebellion against Home Office officials in Glasgow, all suggest not. /3.
Read 4 tweets
Andrew Levi Profile picture
23 May
When is state terrorism an act of war?

Genuine question. Try this for size.

Belarus today used its security agencies and a military fighter jet forcibly to seize an EU civilian airliner flying between two EU/ NATO capitals & abduct one of the passengers. /1.
The threat of devastating, fatal military force against the airliner is obvious & undeniable. (If you don’t believe me, ask any civilian pilot what the calculus is when faced with such a situation). /2.
The abducted passenger is threatened with extrajudicial execution. (Belarus has no credible judicial process). /3.
Read 9 tweets
Andrew Levi Profile picture
17 May
.@vonderleyen’s response to @DavidGHFrost’s comments on the “unsustainable” NI Protocol👇

The problem with her position is: he’s right.

The problem with his position is ... his Brexit deal.

It’s that which is unsustainable. Fundamentally flawed. Unworkable. And he knows it./1.
There are many & varied, often highly debatable, claims as to what Brexit’s “about”.

One point, at least, is beyond any reasonable challenge.

Brexit is & always has been necessarily, unavoidably about Ireland. /2.
The legal & political realities are clear. The only workable, sustainable Brexit for the UK of Great Britain & Northern Ireland is one in which it remains in (or now rejoins) the EU customs union & single market. Or substantially identical arrangements. All else is hot air. /3.
Read 4 tweets
Andrew Levi Profile picture
15 May
We don’t know who the “senior ally” of @BorisJohnson quoted by @Telegraph is. We can guess. @DavidGHFrost well knows that if the Northern Ireland Protocol is “dead in the water”, so is the “oven-ready” Brexit. Either that or the Good Friday Agreement. /1.

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/…
So, which is it, folks? The “senior ally” complains that the NIP breaks the GFA. That means Boris’ Brexit does. Recall: we’re talking about a legally binding international agreement. And we know @BorisJohnson @DavidGHFrost & the Cabinet would never break international law. /2.
Obviously that also means they would never countenance a border across Ireland. We all know the upshot of all that is the UK has to accept the need to return to the EU’s customs union & single market. Or substantially identical arrangements. /3.
Read 20 tweets
Andrew Levi Profile picture
15 May
Read @LordRickettsP’s book, “Hard Choices: What Britain Does Next”. You simply won’t get a better account anywhere of what it’s been like trying to guide the UK through the tectonic shifts of global power these last few decades. You’ll learn much. If you’re willing. /1.
No one who knows @LordRickettsP - considerate, calm, clear-sighted - would think of him as brutal. But don’t be fooled. His book isn’t for the faint of heart. If this extract strikes a chord with you, you’ll want to read more. If it doesn’t, you need to.👇/2.
As @LordRickettsP says, quoting Thucydides: “The strong do what they can & the weak suffer what they must”. And, as others have pointed out: on the global stage, all European powers are small. The difference lies between those who’ve understood that & those who haven’t. /3.
Read 4 tweets
Andrew Levi Profile picture
13 May
What’s fascinating about @lewis_goodall’s report👇of @ukhomeoffice reaction after a senior police officer in Glasgow decided to release people detained by UK officials is the begged questions.

Who are “the frontline”?

Which is “our country”?

Who’s in charge?

A🧵/1. Image
Clearly, there were two “frontlines” in this case (not counting what the HO described as a “mob”): UK immigration officials, & the (Scottish) police. /2.
And there are two countries. The UK. And Scotland. That’s far from a purely historical, emotional or cultural point. Although it’s that too. It’s a political, legal & operational one. As we saw in Glasgow earlier. /3.
Read 11 tweets

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