1. No, the current crop of voter suppression laws don’t threaten the kind of wholesale disfranchisement that Black Americans suffered at peak Jim Crow.
But they’re enough to swing key states, and success likely begets more attempts.
That’s what happened after Reconstruction.
Years of chipping away at voting rights preceded and made possible the state disfranchising conventions of the 1890s-1900s.
The success of the 1st—Mississippi’s, in 1890—encouraged imitation.
2. So - would the Lodge Bill have stopped all this?
Since historians deal in what *did* happen—not what didn’t—the only honest answer is "I don't know."
But it was a key moment, and the bill’s failure only made things harder for voting rights advocates afterwards.
Some Republicans—esp. those who had been lukewarm to the Lodge Bill in the 1st place—blamed it for the party’s poor showing in the 1890 elections.
The national GOP accelerated its retreat from the protection of voting rights. Disfranchisers redoubled their attacks.
tl;dr
The point of comparing #HR1 to the 1890 Lodge Bill isn’t that we’re headed for a full-on Jim Crow 2.0.
It’s that today's attacks on democracy, if unchecked, are likely to have effects that are a) self-reinforcing and b) of long duration.
And that's plenty bad enough.
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I support pro-democracy measures, Joe Manchin might say—protecting voting rights, #DCStatehood, filibuster reform, &c—because:
1. they're just;
2. they're now made "partisan" by an assault on democracy by the leaders of the other party;
3. that assault hurts my constituents.
What's this got to do with Civil War & Reconstruction?
Before the war, some white Northerners forged an alliance with African Americans, opposing slavery and supporting equal rights on principle—think, abolitionists and Radical Republicans, swayed by argument #1. But ...
"It's not a local issue anymore" - and in fact, it never was.
With a Congressional hearing scheduled Monday on #DCStatehood, let's trace the roots of opposition to democracy for DC—roots in the racist, late 19th century backlash against Reconstruction.
"We favor self-government, national suffrage and representation in the Congress of the United States for residents of the District of Columbia."
1960 Republican party platform:
"Republicans will continue to work for Congressional representation and self-government for the District of Columbia and also support the constitutional amendment granting suffrage in national elections."
1964 Republican party platform on the District of Columbia:
1. “I’m a single white man from South Carolina,” an aggrieved Lindsey Graham declared last week.
Note: Graham’s Senate seat has never been occupied by anyone *but* a white man.
Before Graham, it was held for almost 50 years by Strom Thurmond.
2. “The Southern white man does more for the negro than any other man in any part of the country,” Thurmond declared in opposing the 1957 Civil Rights Act.
Running for president 9 years earlier, Thurmond had this to say (from @CrespinoJoe's great biography):
3. Coleman Blease (who held the seat, 1925-31) called African Americans “apes and baboons” and championed lynching.
"To hell with the Constitution," Blease shouted, if it "steps between me and the defense of the virtues of white women."