Sure let’s do this math exercise.

Say, you have 10000 “trees”. The COVID fire is approaching and will get 50% of them if you do nothing. 

If you vaccinate them, that 50% is reduced by 95% to 2.5%, so only 250 trees will catch fire instead of 5000.

1/6
The trees that do catch fire will have, say, a 2% mortality if you don’t use IVM or if IVM can reduce mortality by 83%, a 0.34% mortality. 

Of course, nothing is preventing you to use IVM on the vaccinated trees if you believe in its power to reduce mortality.

2/6
But for the sake of the argument, let’s say we don’t. What is the difference in deaths under the exclusive scenarios of vaccinated vs. IVMed?

So 250 trees caught fire, and 2% or 5 trees will die. 245 will survive but might be scarred by Covid. 

3/6
How about in the IVM scenario? 5000 will catch fire and 0.34% or 17 will die and 4983 will survive but might be scarred by Covid. 

Need I go on?

4/6
You could use any other infection rate or mortality rate but the relative outcome of 17/5=3.4x more deaths and 4983/245=20x more people with post-Covid syndrome should remain the same. 

5/6
Curious to see if anyone might still think we should wait for trees to burn rather than make them immune to the fire. 

6/6

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More from @ydeigin

27 May
Hey @WSJ, ever heard of Huang Yanling? Please don’t say that’s a crazy conspiracy theory, cause so was the lab leak until about 10 minutes ago.

washingtonpost.com/opinions/globa…
Read 4 tweets
25 May
Just so that we’re clear — I am not saying we should dismiss any COVID vaccine concerns. Absolutely not! We should debate any potential issues and closely monitor any actual ones. So far there do seem some rare minor issues and ultra-rare major ones (deaths, clots).

1/5
Not all vaccines are equal. Some are better than others. I am a huge fan of mRNA ones, I fully admit. I’ve been a fan of mRNA technology for many years (back when it was just invented/considered for use in Yamanaka factors delivery which are my main passion).

2/5
Vaccines seem like a perfect fit for the mRNA technology, especially in a pandemic where you need very quickly adapt to novel strains. I actually hope we can squeak by without new boosters, but for that we need a coordinated world-wide effort to eradicate SARS2 ASAP.

3/5
Read 5 tweets
24 May
Waaaait a minute 😁

So some COVID vaccine alarmist have been quoting the study by @manorlaboratory out of Salk that SARS2 spike alone can cause cell damage. But that’s not what the study has shown!

1/4
Those were not lone spike proteins, those were HIV-like virions encoding SARS2 spike. I.e. entered the cells expressing ACE2 and once inside expressed their proteins and maybe even integrated into cell genome (not sure if they used integrase-deficient retroviruses or not).

2/4
Maybe the confusion is due to the lax wording by the popular science article describing the study:

3/4
Read 4 tweets
23 May
AAA SNAKES ON A PLANE, I mean
SPIKES IN MY BRAIN AAA!!!

The latest Covid vaccine fear is that spike proteins produced by the vaccine will get out of the cells, get into the bloodstream, and travel to the brain causing prion-like pathology.

1/4
While there are some data that free-floating spike proteins (or just their fragments) seem to be detected in the blood the first couple of days after vaccination, the amounts detected are minuscule, around 70 pg/mL. A picogram is 1e-12 gram.

2/4
Moreover, free-floating spikes cannot get inside cells on their own, and even if they could, any potential prion-like effects of spikes are pure conjecture at this point: nothing of sort has yet been observed — neither in vitro or in vivo.

3/4
Read 4 tweets
18 May
1/7

Ok let’s try to estimate our annual risk of contracting COVID. We have these nice CDC data from when there were just 15M cases in the US (after about 6 months of the pandemic). Now it’s 33M, icymi.
2/7

Let’s look at the 40-64 age group. We have 5M cases out of ~100M ppl, i.e. a 5% incidence in 6 mo/15M cases, which I think we can extrapolate to 10M cases out of 30M/12mo. => annual risk of 10% for people aged 40-64.

Quick sanity check: 33M cases out of 330M is also 10%.
3/7

Now, what is the risk of death for people aged 40-64 who got COVID? Well, we got about 0.1M dead out of about 10M infected, which means a nice round CFR of 1%.
Read 7 tweets
10 Apr
1/n

Ok, let me try and harp on my evolutionary, well, harp 😂 And maybe my favorite EvoBio couple, @HeatherEHeying and @BretWeinstein can smack me on the head if say something dumb.

So basically infectivity and virulence/pathogenicity are two different properties of a virus,
2/n

which *might* be correlated but do not have to be. First of all, we must understand: these little viruses are not out to kill us. All they “want” is to replicate. And want is in quotes because of course they don’t have any agency:
3/n

they are just a self-replicating collection of molecules, set in motion by some random LUCA prime mover billions of years ago. So the pathogenicity/virulence of a virus is really an unwanted side-effect for both parties:
Read 11 tweets

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