Thread by @IsraelexLive

I finally heard an explanation as to why some are claiming #Israelex5 is going to be held on October 5, rather than my prediction of September 30.

The October date is a possibility, but the logic is based on several assumptions, many true, one doubtful, and one false.

It goes like this: By law, #Israelex5 is scheduled for Tuesday, September 21. But this is the first day of Sukkot, so you need to push it off to the following Tuesday, September 28. But this is Simchat Torah, so you need to push it off to the following Tuesday, October 5.

The explanation I heard admits that you'd need to pass an amendment to the law to allow you to push it off in this fashion. (Or, alternatively, dissolve the Knesset early, which allows you to freely schedule it for any date that the majority can agree on.)

The problem is that this logic assumes that a) the Knesset will get its act together sufficiently to pass these laws *in advance*; and b) that the election must be held on a Tuesday, which is incorrect (we held an election on a Monday just last year).

The "in advance" bit is important. You have to pass the bill picking the October date *before* the 21 signature-collecting days are up. If you don't, the election is scheduled automatically - and the law explicitly forbids the Knesset from changing the date once scheduled.

I'm not saying it's impossible for the Knesset to do this while signatures are being collected. That, too, has been done before, to schedule the Monday election I just mentioned.

But there were other considerations then. There is an "interfering with a holiday" exception to the prohibition against rescheduling an election, but it wasn't certain Purim qualified, so the Knesset was forced to get its act together in advance, just in case.

In this case there's no doubt the election interferes with a holiday: Sukkot. So #Israelex5 can be rescheduled even after the Knesset is dissolved. That means it's less likely they'll put effort into changing the date while they still have a chance of collecting signatures.

Now the details of the rescheduling law are a bit complicated, but in the current situation #Israelex5 can be set for any date between September 21 and September 30.

September 21-28 are all part of Sukkot and its subsidiary holidays, so the only real options are September 29 and September 30, probably the 30th (the charedi parties will likely object to an election the day after the holiday, preparations for which might violate the holiday).

So in summary: If the Knesset does find the motivation to reschedule #Israelex5 in advance, it can pick any date it wants, with October 6 a leading contender.

If it does not, they pretty much have no choice but to set it for September 30.