Thread by @IsraelexLive

So, with what appears to be all of the regular ballots counted, and the CEC about to start on the absentee ballots, where do we stand with #Israelex4?

First, the seat counts:

https://twitter.com/IsraelexLive/status/1374627870614634502

The party closest to the threshold is Ra'am, but it is not even close to being in danger. We would have to count 916,502 absentee ballots without finding a single Ra'am vote for the party to fall, and there just aren't that many.

Ra'am did however benefit from the one party to fall beneath the threshold: The New Economic Party could have had enough votes to receive one seat, but that seat went to Ra'am instead.

These are the parties on the verge of losing a seat, if they underperform in the absentee ballots. From most to least likely:
* The #5 seat in Ra'am
* The #30 seat in Likud
* The #7 seat in Israel Beiteinu

These are the parties on the verge of gaining a seat, if they overperform in the absentee ballots. From most to least likely:
* The #6 seat in Meretz
* The #32 seat in Likud
* The #18 seat in Yesh Atid

These are the VSA partners most likely to grab a seat, if the first outperforms the second in the absentee ballots:
* Yesh Atid from Israel Beiteinu
* Yamina from New Hope
* Likud from the Religious Zionist Party

Nobody benefited from their vote-sharing agreements; the outcome turned out exactly the same as it would have without VSAs.

The failure of the Joint List and Ra'am to sign a VSA did not harm them.

The Bader-Ofer law gave the Likud an extra seat at Meretz's expense.

That's all for now. Stay tuned for updates when the absentee ballots start coming in.

If you have questions about the absentee ballots, see this thread:

https://twitter.com/IsraelexLive/status/1374356746848907269

I did, of course, mean the #31 seat in the Likud. Thanks @nadavkna!

https://twitter.com/IsraelexLive/status/1374691354622693380