Okay, new 🏴☠️ Pirates of Finance episode out.
We’re talking about ZED Run.
Which, on the surface, is just digital horse racing. But there’s some interesting design elements that invite some fascinating quantitative analysis…
Read on 👇
We’re talking about ZED Run.
Which, on the surface, is just digital horse racing. But there’s some interesting design elements that invite some fascinating quantitative analysis…
Read on 👇
In ZED Run, horses are assigned to different classes and can only compete in races of their class (or the class above).
When a horse wins a lot, it is bumped up a class. When a horse loses a lot, it gets bumped down a class.
When a horse wins a lot, it is bumped up a class. When a horse loses a lot, it gets bumped down a class.
Right now, this is based upon a point system. Winning a race gives you +4 points and coming in 12th gives you -4 points. 
Here’s where things start to get really interesting.
Because the payoffs are asymmetric (e.g. put up $2.5 to win $25), the optimal strategy is NOT to look for a horse that wins a lot.
Because the payoffs are asymmetric (e.g. put up $2.5 to win $25), the optimal strategy is NOT to look for a horse that wins a lot.
Because if you win a lot, you’ll just end up getting put into a class where you become average.
What you want is a horse that wins a lot AND loses a lot.
That way, you get the asymmetric payoff, but the points cancel out and you stay in the same class.
What you want is a horse that wins a lot AND loses a lot.
That way, you get the asymmetric payoff, but the points cancel out and you stay in the same class.
For ANY point system, you can basically back out what the optimal placing pattern looks like (i.e. what % you want to come in 1st, 2nd, 3rd, etc).
So the answer is just to hide the point system, right?
Well, not so fast. This is all on the blockchain: the horses and race results are all entirely tranparent.
With hundreds of horses running races each hour, you could quickly back out what the point distribution is.
Well, not so fast. This is all on the blockchain: the horses and race results are all entirely tranparent.
With hundreds of horses running races each hour, you could quickly back out what the point distribution is.
I think this all raises a very interesting game design question.
Ideally, when a horse hits the right class, it’s distribution would approach a bell curve (e.g. see below).
But given any point setup, the *optimal* horse would look very different, and could game the system.
Ideally, when a horse hits the right class, it’s distribution would approach a bell curve (e.g. see below).
But given any point setup, the *optimal* horse would look very different, and could game the system.
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