YOU, CONTEMPTIBLE PEASANT: Screaming at each other in a Twitter Spaces about SPAC activism on a Friday night
ME, 300 IQ MIND SAMURAI: Preparing to eat a 12 course meal made entirely of different flavors of foam and gelatin
1. A pea sphere. Why a sphere? Who knows. 2. Smoked hamachi with what I can only describe as “other Japanese stuff” 3. Beet chips with caviar between them. 4. Foie gras. Cowardly sommeliers continue to refuse to pair this with sauternes for the normies, needed to special order
5. Bread. It’s bread, it’s good, c’mon. 6. Pheasant corn dog. Why would you use a low fat white meat to replace pork except to impress with novelty of having pheasant? Thumbs down. 7. Duck main- can’t get enough duck with red fruit. 8. FINALLY, the hibiscus foam arrives.
9. A decadent dessert that tries to serve chocolate in five (5) ways 10. Lilac shortbread cookie 11. Q: “Quantian, if you have such contempt for this place as dumb rich person bullshit, why did you come?” A: Look what they put in my doggie bag for less than half of market price
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It is literally unbelievable to me that you can accurately forecast more or less the exact liquidation of XIV just months before it happens and be up less than 1.5% for the quarter. Deserves a trophy for the worst portfolio implementation of a trade idea in history
Let it be known that Chris has graciously responded to my questions about vehicle structure to a sufficient degree that I consider this beef "squashed". The fund is a small component of assets relative to SMA overlays, which are adjusted to fit the client and perform quite well.
Do NOT start an emerging manager under any circumstances. Do not work for a pre-launch manager without a nine figure seed investor, even if they offer you “equity”, even if they’re super smart, even if you’re getting a base pay raise from your last job. Just don’t do it.
Being an emerging manager is like doing a PhD because you want to be a tenure track professor. It is presented to you as the natural continuation of your path thus far, you have probably interacted only with success stories, and you absolutely, positively, Should. Not. Do. it.
Here is a checklist of conditions to be a EM: 1. Mom/Dad are worth over $10mm 2. You worked for GS/MS/etc 3. You worked for Citadel/etc 4. You personally know 5+ allocators willing to drop $25m+ 5. You actually know how to manage a portfolio
That gets you to ~25% success chance
Borrowing PPP funds to providing trading capital which you subsequently lose. Big disgraced financier energy
Hmmm this is the second person among my first 100 followers to go to jail for securities fraud, along with Martin Shkreli. The remaining 98 should consider yourself ON NOTICE!
Here is a to-scale superposition the Shinkansen main line on the USA. Its *entire* rail length would be almost exactly that of a single hypothetical Montreal-Atlanta line. They are adding a direct Tokyo-Osaka link (black) for the low price of $80bn. It will be done in 2045.
If you do the work on what would happen if ARK liquidated, you do not get anywhere near what bears imagine. ARKK would be down 5-10% if it went to cash tomorrow, ARKG would be down 7-13%, and all the other funds would be down <5%. 10%-20% of float is big but not *that* big.
Put another way: if you bought 100% of a company's stock via tender, you'd drive up the price by the takeover premium, which is roughly ~30% . Thus, if you buy 20% of a liquid name's float, a first order estimate of your price impact would be ~6%, and selling just unwinds that.
Closing the loop on this: Today ARK had combined outflows of over $600 million, their second-worst flow ever in dollar terms and their third-worst ever as a percentage of asset base. ARKG lagged XBI by -240 bps, and the same model in the above tweet predicted... -234 bps.