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29 May, 11 tweets, 10 min read
COVID-19 IN SWITZERLAND. Week to 29.05.2021—down after rebound

May 31: next easing

Per 100K pop, total & last 2 weeks
● cases—8017 & 152 (⬇️)
● in hospital—331 & 4 (⬇️)
● deaths—119 & 0.6 (⬇️)

R(e): ⬇️—0.81
Vaccs: 4.5m (1.6m 2nd doses)

FOPH covid19.admin.ch/en/overview?ov…

1/11 Screenshot of box on lab-confirmed cases with data and chartScreenshot of box on lab-confirmed hospitalisations with datScreenshot of box on lab-confirmed deaths with data and charScreenshot of box on reproductive number Re (lag in calculat
AND FOR THE PAST FORTNIGHT, R(e) since Sep28

covid19.admin.ch/en/overview

The previous tweet shows that numbers are definitely coming down again after a short rebound in April-early May, although deaths stayed flat.

These are for the last fortnight:

2/11 Screenshot of box on lab-confirmed cases (past fortnight) wiScreenshot of box on lab-confirmed hospitalisations (past foScreenshot of box on lab-confirmed deaths (past fortnight) wScreenshot of Reproductive number since 28.09.2020
VIRUS VARIANTS detected

UK variant dominant. Indian starting to show

Public Health Office: covid19.admin.ch/en/epidemiolog…
Science Task Force: sciencetaskforce.ch/en/nextstrain-…

3/11 Screenshot of list of variants and numbers identified (PubliScreenshot of graph of estimated proportion of relevant variScreenshot: Task Force graph of estimated percentage of B.1.Screenshot: Task Force graph of estimated percentage of P.1
BY CANTON: LAB-CONFIRMED CASES IN the past fortnight per 100K population—down except in Appenzell Innerrhoden. Uri finally improving. Dark end of range down up 446 to 639.

More: covid19.admin.ch/en/epidemiolog…

4/11 Screenshot of map showing different rates by canton: lab-con
BY CANTON: LAB-CONFIRMED HOSPITALISATION in the past fortnight per 100K population—Improving, down from 4.82 to 4.04. Still worse in and around Uri, but dark end of range down from 30 to 22

More: covid19.admin.ch/en/epidemiolog…

5/11 Screenshot of map showing different rates by canton: lab-con
BY CANTON: DEATHS (which lag case numbers)—down from 0.7 to 0.6. Uri better now. Worst in Glarus. Dark end of range down from 5.45 to 4.93.

More: covid19.admin.ch/en/epidemiolog…

6/11 Screenshot of map showing different rates by canton: lab-con
INTENSIVE CARE CAPACITY AND OCCUPANCY: all patients and COVID-19

Over 150 hospitals/clinics (Glarus, Appenzell Innerrhoden have no IC units)

All patients: marginally worse

COVID-19: improving, Schaffhausen still stands out

More: covid19.admin.ch/en/hosp-capaci…

7/11 Map of occupancy rates: all patientsMap of occupancy rates: COVID-19 patientsChart of COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 occupancy since March 202
R(e) ESTIMATES: national over time, cantons latest.

Down. Patchy pattern. >1 in Obwalden, Nidwalden, Schwyz, Appenzell Innerrhoden, Schaffhausen

Estimate: 0.81 nationally (from 0.80)

More: covid19.admin.ch/en/repro/val

Note: Swiss schools have stayed open during lockdown

8/11 Chart of reproductive number over timeMap of reproductive number by canton
VACCINATIONS (1) VACCINES & DEMOGRAPHY

Moderna outstripping Pfizer/BioNTech

Ordered: 36m doses: Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna, AstraZeneca, Curevac and Novavax (pop 8.6m)

Approved: Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna, J&J (not ordered)

covid19.admin.ch/en/epidemiolog…
covid19.admin.ch/en/epidemiolog…

9/11 Screenshot of graph of administered vaccine doses, Pfizer/BiScreenshot of graph of fully vaccinated people, Pfizer/BioNTScreenshot of graphic of demography of administered vaccine Screenshot of graphic of demography of fully vaccinated peop
VACCINATIONS (2) OVERALL

Accelerating

DOSES
Delivered: 4.9m=56% (from 4.7m/54%)
Administered: 4.5m=53% (from 3.9m/46%)

PEOPLE
Fully (2 doses): 1.6m=18.8% (from 1.4m/14.3%)
At least one dose = 33.8%

covid19.admin.ch/en/epidemiolog…
covid19.admin.ch/en/epidemiolog…

10/11 Screenshot: Chart of development over time of delivered and Screenshot: map of administered vaccine doses, per 100, by cScreenshot: Chart of development over time of vaccinated peoScreenshot: map of fully vaccinated people per 100, by canto
LATEST: Next phase starts Monday May 31, includes restaurants open indoors, but still some restrictions

Some cantons now vaccinating all adults (some over-16s)

A forgery-proof Covid-19 certificate available by the end of June

CURRENT SITUATION: swissinfo.ch/eng/covid-19_c…

11/11

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More from @CoppetainPU

Peter Ungphakorn Profile picture
27 May
The recently-announced US proposal for the WTO fisheries subsidies talks—on the use of forced labour—is now available on the WTO website: docs.wto.org/dol2fe/Pages/S…

It was not discussed in today's negotiations session, but the talks will continue on Saturday and and Monday.

1/2 Image
The US proposal refers to the chair's latest draft ⬇️

Meeting on Saturday is unusual. It seems to be part of the effort to accelerate the talks so that all or most of the issues are settled by July 15 when ministers are due to meet online.

2/2
tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2021/05/11/fis…
PS The US floated the idea in April. Today's focus was on special treatment for developing countries in provisions on illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing.

The US proposal may be discussed whenever the talks move to illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing in general
Read 4 tweets
Peter Ungphakorn Profile picture
27 May
Discussions on sustainability are taking place among delegations and experts in the @wto this week.

Sadly, despite being “open and transparent” the WTO keeps most of its meeting agendas secret, like this one.

But there are ways …

#WtoTransparency

1/2 tradebetablog.wordpress.com/in-keeping-wit…
@BobWolfeSPS and I have written at length (with a short summary too) about the need to include transparency in the discussion of WTO reform. Releasing agendas publicly would be a good starting point

#WtoTransparency

2/2
P.S. On the other hand, for a bit of balance, we do know what the @wto Dispute Settlement Body will discuss tomorrow. But it's an exception to the general rule

docs.wto.org/dol2fe/Pages/S… Image
Read 5 tweets
Peter Ungphakorn Profile picture
22 May
(Nervously starts typing what’s going to be an unpopular thread)

India, South Africa and allies have now circulated a new draft for the WTO intellectual property waiver for COVID-19.

KEI Online has it. Not yet in WTO DocsOnline—Monday?

1/19 #TRIPSwaiver keionline.org/wp-content/upl…
“It’s been a long time comin’
It’s goin’ to be a long time gone

“And it appears to be a long
Appears to be a long
Appears to be a long time
Yes, a long, long, long, long time before the dawn”

So long to prepare, so little changed, lots to do

2/19
It’s hard to believe this draft was intended to enable quick agreement to waive obligations under the WTO intellectual property (“TRIPS”) agreement

It’s extreme—a blank cheque with some minor tweaks—not a draft than can be quickly settled.

3/19 keionline.org/wp-content/upl…
Read 19 tweets
Peter Ungphakorn Profile picture
22 May
COVID-19 IN SWITZERLAND. Week to 22.05.2021—down

May 26: next easing decision

Per 100K pop, total & last 2 weeks
● cases—7951 & 187 (dn)
● in hospital—329 & 5 (dn)
● deaths—118 & 0.7 (dn)

R(e): up—0.90
Vaccinations: 4.0m (1.4m 2nd doses)

FOPH covid19.admin.ch/en/overview?ov…

1/11 Screenshot of box on lab-confirmed cases with data and chartScreenshot of box on lab-confirmed hospitalisations with datScreenshot of box on lab-confirmed deaths with data and charScreenshot of box on reproductive number Re (lag in calculat
AND FOR THE PAST FORTNIGHT, R(e) since Sep28

covid19.admin.ch/en/overview

2/11 Screenshot of box on lab-confirmed cases (past fortnight) wiScreenshot of box on lab-confirmed hospitalisations (past foScreenshot of box on lab-confirmed deaths (past fortnight) wScreenshot of Reproductive number since 28.09.2020
VIRUS VARIANTS detected

UK variant dominant. Indian starting to show

Public Health Office: covid19.admin.ch/en/epidemiolog…
Science Task Force: sciencetaskforce.ch/en/nextstrain-…

3/11 Screenshot of list of variants and numbers identified (PubliScreenshot of graph of estimated proportion of relevant variScreenshot: Task Force graph of estimated percentage of B.1.Screenshot: Task Force graph of estimated percentage of P.1
Read 11 tweets
Peter Ungphakorn Profile picture
19 May
UK hit trade topic today: #TariffQuotas/#TariffRateQuotas

What are they?

One way to compromise between high protective tariffs and market access
⬇️
Low or zero duty for limited quantities (quotas). Beyond that high tariffs kick in—not “phased in” @nicholaswatt @BBCr4today

1/6
That way the two tariff levels allow some market access but keep it limited so some protection remains for local producers

It’s not the only way to compromise. Another: set a medium-level tariff for all imports of that product. But quantities would depend on supply & demand

2/6
Advantage of a tariff quota: the limit of low/zero duty imports is known. With a medium tariff it is not known.

Disadvantages: complexity in the way the govt hands out the quota among importers, and “quota rent”—benefits, sometimes huge, to those with a share of the quota

3/6
Read 8 tweets
Peter Ungphakorn Profile picture
17 May
TRADE GEEK CORNER

Brazil has 2 new papers on domestic support in the WTO agriculture talks, analysis rather than proposals.

1. The exemption for developing countries allowing unlimited investment and input support even if trade-distorting (Art6.2)

1/4
docs.wto.org/dol2fe/Pages/S…
Among the paper's observations:

—only some developing countries use this exception (Art6.2), some a lot (eg India, Indonesia, not named in the paper)

—some exception continue to be needed to help poor farmers but not as an excuse to support "highly exported products"

2/4
2. Blue Box (Art6.5) ie trade-distorting support but with production limits, so currently allowed in unlimited amounts

Brazil says Blue Box should be negotiated too

The paper says only 5 countries are using this type of support; "A, B, C, D, and E"

3/4
docs.wto.org/dol2fe/Pages/S…
Read 4 tweets

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