Those are the wrong questions to ask. No one knows a goddamn thing about the future. the goal is to have a contingency plan based on what is MOST likely to happen.
A stock can be as bearish as shit, but if enough demand comes in & overtakes the supply, it will go up. a stock can be as bullish as ever, but if supply>demand it will go down. And the imbalance between the 2 can change on ANY day. so u have to reassess ur thesis on a daily basis
That's what a LOT of traders fail to grasp (especially stubborn shortsellers). they think "this stock is a piece of shit. it's overvalued. it HAS to selloff"
It doesnt have to do a goddamn thing. It will continue to go up UNTIL market sells (supply) overtake market buys (demand)
That's why if u read my tweets, u'll notice that I update my thesis EVERY morning.
I analyze potential demand & potential supply for THAT day, and I make bets based on where the imbalance is on THAT day.
if it's demand = i wanna be long🐂
if it's supply = i wanna be short🐻
DONT be the biased shortseller who sees an overvalued POS & keeps shorting on the way up, getting molested over & over on a 300% squeeze just to nail a -20% selloff & say "see i was right". yeah but u lost -$500K on the way up to make $100K on the way down. that's dumb as fuck.
So conclusion,
REASSESS your stock daily.
REASSESS your thesis daily.
LOOK for who is in control short term.
LOOK for who is bagged.
then follow the winning side.
Quit the biased BS. Yeah being right is cute, but making money is a lot more orgasmic.
Here's another reason why every trader should at LEAST understand how options work:
The most powerful people in the stock market (billionaires & >100M millionaires etc) are option sellers. They write calls & puts weekly/monthly & collect free premium. it's like dividends to them
that's the part they DONT want u to know. they want u to believe that they just invest in stocks longterm & just wait for stocks to go up. WRONG!! they make a fat chunk of their gains from just selling premium month after month, since 90% of options expire worthless
So they actually DONT care if a stock goes up or down. what they REALLY want is to collect as much free premium as possible. that's why when EVERYONE is long calls, they want the stock down (so the calls expire worthless). if everyone is long puts, they want the stock to go up
$AMC since this is friday & most call sellers got their shits pushed in last 2 days, their goal today will be to bag the 39C, the 35C, and most importantly the 30C buyers (that's where most of retail is positioned today). So if they succeed at keeping $30 heavy on pops = Put city
$AMC So KEEP your eyes on that $30 area. That's all I care about today.
above it = MMs are sweating bullets. B/c trust me, they DONT want those 30C, 35C & 39C to expire in the money today.
Below it + failed reclaims = get aggressive on your puts (ideally put debit spreads).
$AMC For my visual motherfuckers, these are the only 2 scenarios im looking for to hammer short. Not interested in any 🩳above $30. I need to see a TON of supply over that area, showing us that MMs are in control. And unlike yesterday im not going long either. Too risky on friday
To the struggling trader out there who is still wondering "man, is this even worth it? should I quit now?" Listen u little fuck. Endure the small losses. Endure the sleepless nights. Because TRUST me, once u finally activate beastmode, it would have all been worth the pain.
Just follow these 3 SIMPLE rules:
1) FOCUS on just ONE setup at first. Just one, simple, scalable, cunty little setup. just ONE bro. u dont have to learn every fucking strategy out there. just find ONE and make it your bitch. u can worry about other setups later.
And that's the goal of my tweets.. to REDUCE ur learning curve. to REDUCE the amount of tuition u have to pay to the market before things finally "click". So if I can make u learn something in ONE TWEET that took me YEARS & a ridiculous amount of money lost to learn, i did my job
u see me talk about PROVEN concepts that sound simple at first.. #vwapBoulevard, bloodbath setup, 1-3pm selloff due to filing requirements, ADF score, volume forecast etc. and u think "gee thanks. that was easy". but do u have ANY idea how long it took me to crack those things??
~17hr days (~119 hour weeks) stuck in front of screens all day, sifting through charts, reading sec filings all night, plowing through tedious, boring excel sheets. Blowing up account after account. Bc i didnt have the luxury of a mentor. A trader's learning curve is a BITCH
Interesting tweet I just got tagged on. Let's get one thing straight:
first off, ANY profitable trader who tells u they dont "backtest" is lying their ass off. EVERYONE "backtests". we just use different approaches. Backtesting simply means consulting history to make a decision.
Ask ANY profitable trader "are there certain trades u avoid?". and they'll tell u yes. Ask them "why", they ll tell u "b/c historically i dont do well on those". guess what.. that's a form of backtesting. u're just consulting ur own historical performance to make that decision
did you ever get advice from a friend or mentor and used it to guide u in your niche or trading? well guess what.. u just consulted that trader's experience or historical performance on that specific niche to guide u. THAT's a form of "backtesting".
1R is just your max loss per trade. In caveman speech, just think of the amount of money ur account is able to lose 20 times in a row before blowing up (or going under PDT). And that's for an aggressive trader. so for a $50K acct ur max loss should be no more than $1250 per trade
so with a risk/reward of 3:1 (absolute minimum 2:1), on that $50K acct, u're risking $1250 (per stopout) to make $3750 or $2500. If u take 2 trades per day of good quality setups, with decent win rates (even 50% winrate), ur account WILL grow. it's pure math.
The reason u fuckers keep blowing up is b/c u dont have a fixed 1R (max loss). one day u lose $100 another day $2000 another day $700 etc. what the fuck? imagine living in an apartment where u dont know what the rent will be. u should KNOW what ur losses will be BEFORE u take em