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Javed Hassan Profile picture
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30 May, 10 tweets, 2 min read
Iss Saal (2021) Na ahal, Na laik hukumat ki kahGarThaGee:

1. GDP Growth 4%

2. Exports - $3.2B in March 2021, highest ever in a month

3. Goods Export - $21B in 10 months, projected to reach all time high above $25B

4. Textile Export - $1.4B in Dec 2020, highest ever in a month
Aur Soon Yeh in Selected Hakumraan ki Na Kaamee:

5. Reserves - $23B, Highest since 2016

6. Remittances - Will cross $27B, above $2B from 11 months

7. Current Account - In Surplus of $773M after 10 years

8. Large Scale Manufacturing - 9% ⬆️, Highest ever index in Jan 2021
Aur lee yeh PTI gormint ki Taba Hee:

9.FBR Revenue = 14% ⬆️ YoY, 30%⬆️ since 2018

10. Primary Balance - Rs 450 surplus, first time in decades

11. Social Spending (Ehsaas)- Doubled since 2018

12. External Debt - Lowest increase in 6 years in FY2021
Wazir-e-Azam ke laa parwa hee ke NaTa-Aij:

13. Cement Sales - Highest Ever Monthly sales in March 2021

14. Rooshan Digital Accounts - $1B deposits

15. IT Export - Will cross $2B, Doubled in 3 years, $213M in March 2021, highest ever in a month
Challo challo long March par Challo, Iss Se jan chu rao:

16.Car Sales = 54% ⬆️
Tractors = 62% ⬆️
Bikes = 34% ⬆️

17. Ease of Doing Business - Best ranking since 2013

PMLN ki Daronomics wapas laao. Khasara Bhar Aoo. Han Jee Pher Se Mul koh Doob Aao
Figures courtesy @drzarqa
*Karkardagee
*Typo March export not $3.2bn in but $2.3 bn which was decade high
*Sorry Typo: March export $2.3bn and on $3.2bn. But still decade high for any given month
May be a case of ‘numbers dyslexia’ where 2.3 was inverted to 3.2. But great thing about some PTI followers is that they’re stickers for accuracy. Can’t get away with nothing. Thx @aliya_hamza for quickly pointed my error.

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More from @javedhassan

Javed Hassan Profile picture
30 May
Doubt being cast on NAC’s provisional GDP growth estimate of 3.94% because “Electricity generation & distribution and Gas distribution” is down 22.96%. The formula used in national accounts for power: Power generation + (subsidies x deflator). However this is subsidies are
GDP is correlated to actual Power Units sold. Historically growth in power units sold is about 1.25-1.5 times the real GDP growth. Given that in the the first 10 moths of this months units sold has grown YoY 6.91%, it would suggest growth of of about 4.6-5.5% GDP growth
So if anything the provisional 3.94% figure maybe low balling the actual GDP growth as many independent analysts suspect. The full year LSM is almost certainly going to be significantly higher than NAC estimate of 9%. Also we shall find IMF and WB will be revising the numbers
Read 9 tweets
Javed Hassan Profile picture
10 May
If GoP decides to dig the largest hole in the world without purpose that too will contribute to GDP growth. lt’ll need excavators, big trucks, explosives, and create many jobs whilst digging. However, on completion if the giant hole generates not much to sell, it’ll soon fill up
The hole & all the activity around digging it will soon enough get forgotten, but the interest on the loan & principle itself the government borrowed, domestically & internationally (FX to buy specialised equipment) will still have to paid back. The jobs would have disappeared
Few will remember the hole but all will’ve to pay for many years to come. While digging it the government would have been able to boast about how GDP growth had gone up during its tenure, but future government’s growth will be restricted by the loans they have to pay for the hole
Read 4 tweets
Javed Hassan Profile picture
8 May
While it’s too early to take comfort the numbers suggest that @OfficialNcoc can be credited for having so far prevented an exponential surge in covid-19 cases. While one must thank Allah for His mercy, the stark difference btw S Asian countries reflects impact of policy actions Image
It’s best to use cases per million as that equalises the differences in population size of countries. Also that’s observable both in the log and linear scales Image
It’s important to compare the positivity ratios across countries to get an idea of if the differences are because of lack of sufficient testing. A higher positivity ratio tends to indicate insufficient testing. Also rapidly increasing positivity is precursor of increase in cases Image
Read 6 tweets
Javed Hassan Profile picture
23 Mar
It has to be said PMNL/Sharifs are masters of narrative building. PTI simply can’t compete. The cuckoo IPP contracts were not a product of incompetence, but a well thought out strategy to befuddled the Pakistani people by razzle-dazzle that they’ll pay thru their noses for years
PMLN knew exactly what they were doing when the kept PKR overvalued by borrowing USD to support the currency. It suppressed inflation & kept interest rates artificially low. Moreover, it fuelled consumer driven growth, which gives them boasting rights that it now shoves down our
throats - little matter that it decimated exports & exploded trade deficit. Although they knew that collapse was inevitable as such consumption driven growth, fuelled by excessive levels of borrowing is never sustainable. The pièce de résistance of this was dubious IPP enterprise
Read 7 tweets
Javed Hassan Profile picture
20 Jan
UK High Court Hon Mrs Justice Moulder’s #Broadsheet 2018 judgment leaves no doubt that at least $100mn of Sharifs assets were of unexplained origin. Had they been legally acquired & declared to tax authorities as claimed by a lawyer, no UK court would treat them as RECOVERABLE
The Honourable judge arrives at her conclusion with respect to value of recoverable assets on the basis of “....the potential net recovery by respondents (Broadsheet) after taking account of all relevant factors”
On the issue why the Pakistan High Commission made the payment of $28.706 million (Rs4.59 billion) on behalf of the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) once UK court had made the decree award to broadsheet, GOP assets could be attached/seized immediately to enforce the order
Read 4 tweets
Javed Hassan Profile picture
19 Dec 20
Every partisan can have his view who won the debate, but the following facts are indisputable:
- No previous govt has willingly come forward to have a threadbare debate with the opposition in open forum on a burning issue of the day
- Only PTI govt has made inquiry reports public
- All facts and figures are made available for complete scrutiny so that public can arrive at their own judgement
- Only in this govt every contract and every additional loan is minutely examined, and govt ministers willing to respond rather than obfuscate
- Level of public interest/scrutiny economic issues means there’s almost real time assessment taking place of govt decision unlike, for example, in the signing of 20yr IPP or 15yr LNG contracts that happened virtually in the dark
Read 5 tweets

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