UPDATE: Risk Serious Blood Clots following Astra Zeneca/COVISHIELD vaccine. #VITT

~1 in 55,000 with 1st dose.
This is higher than we thought initially.

Risk with 2nd dose is 10 times lower.

I'd favor mRNA vaccines, if possible, for age <30 years. covid19-sciencetable.ca/sciencebrief/r…
As the report indicates, the risk from countries with moderate to high data data quality range from 1 in 26,500 to 1 in 127,300 of first doses.
My previous estimates are in this thread from April. There are relatively smaller number of J&J doses. So erring on side of caution for now I would consider risks to be similar.
The risk of dying from these clots is 20-30%.

More on how these clots are different from regular blood clots and the mechanisms involved see below.
People are asking about symptoms. It is severe persistent headache or abdominal pain, dizziness, not feeling well.

The key is to recognize the symptoms based on recent history adenovirus vector vaccine and initiate the right diagnostic work up on time.
IMPORTANT: In countries like India, with high rates of COVID, no mRNA vaccines, and limited vaccine supply, the risk of COVID far outweighs the risk of adenovirus vector vaccine like COVISHIELD.

So even for my family <30, I have recommended getting the first vaccine offered.

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More from @VincentRK

2 Jun
You don't get much credit for editorials in academic promotions. But I have found them quite useful to advance a new concept, make an argument for change, or for advocacy. #MedTwitter

Here are 5 editorials that I hope highlight how you can make it work.

See thread.
1/ Redefining Myeloma
We wrote this to make the case that the disease definition for multiple myeloma was outdated, and made suggestions on how it should be revised. Few years later the definition was changed. @NatRevClinOncol @DianaNrco
nature.com/articles/nrcli… Image
2/ Strategic Clinical Trials
In this editorial, we called for disclosure of the true purpose of a clinical trial which is often different than the primary objectives, & also for strategic investigator initiated randomized trials. @TheLancet @jocalynclark thelancet.com/journals/lance…
Read 6 tweets
31 May
Here are my Top 5 #ASCO21 @ASCO myeloma abstracts. #ASCO21VR
I’ve listed them with links to the full abstract. @mtmdphd @Rfonsi1 @MayoMyeloma @chadinabhan @Mohty_EBMT @BldCancerDoc @szusmani @NBahlis @NoopurRajeMD @profghjackson @contirena1 @DusetzinaS
Thread for countdown👇
#5 Daratumumab, bortezomib, lenalidomide, cyclophosphamide and dexamethasone (Dara-CVRd) for ultra high risk MM and plasma cell leukemia. A modern alternative to VDT-PACE. 94% response rate. @profghjackson @MyelomaUK #ASCO21VR #ASCO21
meetinglibrary.asco.org/record/195431/…
#4 Financial difficulty in patients with multiple myeloma. 20% of patients reported financial difficulties in 1 year. Glad this is being studied. I do think this is an underestimate. @ALLIANCE_org @theNCI @contirena1 #ASCO21VR #ASCO21
meetinglibrary.asco.org/record/195456/…
Read 9 tweets
30 May
What a difference a month makes. India in Feb, March, April, and May.

What exponential spread of COVID looks like: 10k to 400k in 4 months. ImageImageImageImage
As I watch cases rise in Scotland, Taiwan, Malaysia, Columbia, Chile, Suriname, Dominican Republic, Portugal: Worried about how quickly things can change. We need vaccinations to speed up dramatically. More vaccine producers. More tech transfer.

And 2 doses for all coz of B1.617
In India cases are decreasing as almost every state is in lockdown. But with 97% or the population not fully vaccinated, I worry about the next wave if restrictions are relaxed without maintaining adequate precautions and speeding up vaccination. Image
Read 4 tweets
29 May
US Vaccine Progress

~60% of eligible population (166 million of ~280 million age >12) have had at least 1 dose of COVID vaccine

To reach herd immunity:
100 million more to go. (80% threshold)
(60 million if we consider recovery from COVID as immune)

What can disrupt the math?
Factors that affect the math and goals:

1) Extent of protection from current vaccines in immunocompromised individuals and very elderly. Neutralizing antibody levels can be a biomarker that helps predict extent of protection from vaccination. See thread.
2) Extent of protection from current vaccines against the B.1.617 variants. Thankfully data so far indicate that current vaccines are highly protective against symptomatic disease from B.1.617 variant. See thread. 👇
Read 7 tweets
29 May
Everyday I hear about someone very young in India, in the best of health, dying or critically ill with COVID. In many, the clinical course is one of rapid progression.

Added to what's going on in the UK, makes me nervous about B.1.617 variants.

Get vaccinated. That does work.
Ask anyone in India, and most will know of someone like this. It's real.
In some one can blame lack of resources or steroid related complications. But in most it's pretty significant lung damage due to COVID.

#GetVaccinated
Read 7 tweets
28 May
Important to realize that we use steroids like dexamethasone as anticancer drugs (for myeloma) to kill the same cells that make antibodies & help us fight infection.

They are not antivirals. They are anti immune system. They help the COVID virus if given early or inappropriately
When treating the cancer multiple myeloma, we have found that giving high doses of dexamethasone cause more deaths than low doses. More steroids is NOT better. Less is more. @TheLancetOncol thelancet.com/journals/lanon…
Dexamethasone and other steroids will make any kind of fever disappear and make people feel better, but behind the scenes they cause harm when used incorrectly.

We found all kinds of side effects are higher with higher dose of dexamethasone. From blood clots to infections.
Read 8 tweets

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