You don’t want to read too much into these specials. But they are, on average, pretty useful for forecasting midterms — just not in isolation. Avg D swing suggests a constant national environment since 2020… So does Congressional ballot polling and Biden’s approval rating polls.
There are (at least) three huge problems with the US & state constitutions re: election subversion. Short thread
1) State legislatures are given power over how elections are conducted and which elections are legitimate—which POTUS electors to send, which contests to certify, &c.
2) Most offices are elected on a plurality-winner district-based electoral system, which incentives zero-sum politics and rewards acting in bad faith and against partisan mutual toleration and forbearance. This is one reason why you have partisan gerrymandering, but also how you
get GA removing full certification power from the Secretary of State, why AZ Senate Rs are voting for a second partisan audit of the 2020 electoral results, which were verified by both bipartisan and non-partisan processes already, and why 75% of R voters Parrott Trump’s big lie.
The single biggest reason Republicans can pursue anti-democracy positions is because they can win control of federal + state governments with minorities of the vote. Increasing electoral accountability by making outcomes more proportional is not a panacea, but would do a lot.
Of course, we're in this problem largely because Trump put us here, and there aren't a lot of ways to legislate your way out of demagoguery
I have talked privately with people for a while about my doom and gloom here, but the only real solution to *gestures wildly* "all of this" is to write a new constitution
The partisan vaccination divide, per new The Economist/YouGov polling:
Among Biden voters:
Fully vaccinated 76%
Partially 10%
Plan to get 7%
Won’t get vaxxed 2%
Not sure 4%
Trump voters:
Fully vaccinated 54%
Partially 6%
Plan to get 3%
Won’t get vaxxed 26%
Not sure 12%
It seems likely that Democratic-leaning areas (cities) will start to reach "herd immunity" over the next month, while rural areas and other Republican-dominated places will take longer — if they ever get there at all
People who won't get the covid vaccine are really ruining things for the rest of us
I don't want to be the "ecological fallacy!" and "look at my regression!" guy but there is a lot of misinformation about vaccine uptake and masking today.
We have 30k interviews from YouGov with actual people and partisanship really is the strongest predictor of behavior
Given what we know about how people react to cues from their political elites and information networks, this is very very obvious
Covid is political because everything is political
Updated trends in vaccine reluctance from our The Economist/YouGov polls:
The data this week show a continued negative trend in hesitancy, but with early signs of a flattening curve. On average, 68% say they have been or will get vaxxed, 19% say they won't, and 13% are unsure.
Party breakdown: 57% of Republicans say they have or will get a covid-19 shot. That is up by seven points over the last month. But opinion among GOPers who are uncertain about the shot may be hardening up, with fewer likely to change their mind as more persuadable ppl get vaxxed.
On age, the bad news is vax rates for seniors may have maxed out at 76%, w/ a steady 15% being in the hard "no" group.
The good news is there is still quite a ways to go with young people. Half are already vaxxed, and I estimate about ~65-70% are likely to be jabbed in the end.