1) What a difference a year makes
2) I'm back in the states for the first time in about a year and a half.

There's probably a thread to write here about COVID and masks and vaccines and travel and Asian and the bay area and Miami, but this isn't that thread.
3) Last time I was here, I was visiting a Berkeley office, bustling with life.

BTC was trading at $9k, about to crash to $4k.

FTX had a few hundred millions of dollars per day of volume.
4) There was potential, but it was just that--potential.

We were grinding, and putting out fires, and onboarding our first few huge users.

(Hopefully some of that never changes; hopefully we never stop grinding.)
5) We had two developers, and a few people in BD. We were scratching for any relationships or connections or media we could get.

On March 12th we set our record with $5b of volume, and had a month of CS cleanup after hours of downtime.

On May 19th we had $50b and no downtime.
6) It was the first time I'd been in the states and felt like I'd begun to move on from my life before FTX.

I felt like a ghost. @ftx_us hadn't started yet but my old life there was over. And all things considered I was pretty happy when my trip ended.
7) I guess it feels different this time.

8) It's amazing how much we changed in the last year. It's amazing how much the world did, though in a much less positive way.
9) Anyway, I'll see some of you in Miami.

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More from @SBF_Alameda

24 May
1) What sort of leveraged played a part in the crash?
2) NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. TRADE RESPONSIBLY.
3) The obvious answer is "100x".

But I don't think it's the correct one.
Read 10 tweets
23 May
1) Ok, so something which I think is relevant:

1) Over the last week, ~$20B of longs have been liq'd
2) Right now, OI ~ $20B

coingecko.com/en/exchanges/d…
2) So that means....

I think (?) that means we have to be nearing the end of the futures liquidations.

A lot of the remaining OI is very unlikely to be liq'd.

But, there are other types of liquidations.
3) Spot margin trading, for instance.

FTX has ~$1b of OI on ftx.com/spot-margin/le…, but that number has been more stable.

Bitfinex has another ~$2B.

So there could be *some* more liqs, but not a ton.
Read 7 tweets
20 May
1) Ok, so how much CO2 does BTC actually create? How much of a worry is it?

2) NOT... advice, really. Just math.
3) Ok, so. Let's say you spend $X on BTC/ETH blockchain fees (or any PoW currency).

Those $X are going to miners in a bidding war for block slots.

In an efficient market, as long as it's profitable to run a BTC/ETH mining rig, more people will open them up.
Read 8 tweets
14 May
1) How fickle we all can be
2) For years, we were entertained by @elonmusk.

"Here is a meme", he said, "in which I like bitcoin".

"Yes", we replied, "this one sparks joy".
3) He did not pretend to have loyalty or deference to BTC. Or for that matter, to anything, really.

That is fine, we all thought. Deference to the system as it happens to exist is the innovation killer.
Read 19 tweets
13 May
1) So on energy usage of BTC:

The profile will change long-term. Right now the main driver is from block rewards.

But as block rewards exponentially decay, those will become less relevant.

Long-term, there are really two core drivers.
2) First, transaction fees.

There's limited block space, and transactions will basically be bidding in auctions for those.

That means that greater demand for BTC transfers --> higher tx fees --> breakeven point with more miners --> more energy used.
3) So long-term energy used by BTC will scale with total demand for BTC transfers.

The other thing it scales with is security.

If anyone accumulates 51% hashrate they can attack the network.

So for BTC to be secure, it has to be prohibitively expensive to get 51% hashrate.
Read 8 tweets
4 May
1) For the first time, FTX is spending nontrivial amounts of money on branding. Why?
2) Well, first, why haven't we?

Because our core userbase doesn't really care.

Our core userbase has been, basically, you all who are reading this tweet.

And if you're reading this tweet, you already know way more about FTX than our brand will convey.
3) But there are a lot of other people in the world--people who haven't heard of most crypto exchanges.

And they've been bombarded for years with ads for a few high profile retail applications.

And those people are increasingly getting into crypto.
Read 6 tweets

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