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2 Jun, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Interesting data from @ONS showing an increasing % of people saying they have complied with self-isolation requirements. It's up from 82% to 86% since March, and is at 96% following a positive test.

84% complied in the period between symptoms (where present) and result.

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Of note there was no statistically significant difference by deprivation indicator in the proportion complying, maybe surprising given suggestions that loss of income may be a key factor.

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Around a third of those who didn't comply did so to go to work/school/university, so around 5% in total (and just 1% following the positive test result).
3/
Note the survey does recognise some limitations, shown here, which may distort the results, and may be relevant in understanding overall levels of non-compliance.
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ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati… Image

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More from @john_actuary

John Roberts Profile picture
3 Jun
It's not been a good day I'm afraid.

We've had the new PHE data that suggests that if you get the Delta variant you're 2 1/2 x more likely to be hospitalised (on top of known increased transmissibility and vaccine escape after 1 dose). It's now the dominant variant too.

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Today's reported cases are c50% up on a week ago, and the trend by specimen date is clearly one of an accelerating increase. And this is before we have any further relaxation of restrictions at the solstice.

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Much of the increase is in younger age groups, with increasing numbers of outbreaks in schools, nearly doubled in the latest week. But these infections will filter through to older groups, especially given increased transmissibility. At least it's half term this week.

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Read 7 tweets
John Roberts Profile picture
3 Jun
Thu vaccine update:
522k doses today, down over a fifth on last week, and the 6th consecutive day of falls, bringing the 7D total down from 4.2m to 3.5m in just 6 days.

1st doses of 173k are hit hardest today, down over a quarter, so the 7D total is now just 1.1m.

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2nd doses of 349k are down 18%, but on a positive note, after reaching 75% coverage of adults yesterday on 1st doses, today we pass the 50% mark of adults who have been fully vaccinated.

England next...

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We're now getting a daily age breakdown so unlike previous weeks, this is fully up to date, not 3 days behind.

We can see there's still someway to go to get all over 50s fully dosed.

Let's compare younger ages with the rest of the UK next...

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Read 5 tweets
John Roberts Profile picture
2 Jun
Latest ONS deaths data (to week ending 21 May) has been released. 328 less deaths were recorded in-week compared to the 2015-19 year average. That’s 3% lower. Year to date there have been 250,201 deaths recorded, which is 11% higher than the 2015-19 average.
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There are 107 deaths where COVID was mentioned on the death certificate this week (the lowest since w/e 11th Sept). 66 of the deaths with COVID mentioned had it listed as the underlying cause (that's 62%).
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Unlike recent weeks, this week is unaffected by any Bank Holiday distortions. So it's a relatively “clean” week, which we can use to judge the current underlying position.
3/
Read 5 tweets
John Roberts Profile picture
27 May
England take-up data, now including 30-39. Data is to Sunday and based on ONS pop'n estimates (NIMS gives lower %s.)

50-54 has levelled off at just over 90%, and the 40s look as though they will at around 85%. We're now making good progress in the upper thirties too.

1/
Second dose progress is much more spread than we saw in Wales yesterday, with good gains this week across all of 50 to 65. This spread may now reflect some of the acceleration to 8 weeks over age 50, with the younger ages more likely to be brought forward.

2/
2nd dose take up is now at 97% over age 70, around 92% at 65-69, and still making progress below that. It would be good to see all age groups get up beyond 95% given the lesser efficacy of one dose against B.1.617.2.

3/
Read 6 tweets
John Roberts Profile picture
26 May
Wed vaccine update (and Wales commentary)

574k total reported today, up 15% and the highest Tuesday to date. The overall 7D total pushes higher above 4m, and is now just short of its all time high.

1st doses of 186k are up just 7%, and so the 7D total remains around 1.4m.
1/
As expected the surge is in 2nd doses, with 388k up 20%, and takes the 7D total to 2.75m, still a little off it's previous high.

The actual line continues to diverges steadily from the 11W track, but maybe not as quickly as we might have expected.

2/
Comment on Twitter today that Wales is now the best performing country (>1m pop'n) in terms of rollout. So it's useful to see how take-up in lower age groups is shaping up.

The 40's are now over 75%, and the 30's are up to 60%. Even the final age band is nearly up to 40%.

3/
Read 4 tweets
John Roberts Profile picture
26 May
The latest ONS antibody survey is out, and shows increases in all four countries since the last one a fortnight ago.
E: Up from 69.3% to 75.9%
W: from 63.2% to 76.6%
NI from 63.5% to 75.0%

S continues to lag a little, up from 59.2% to 68.6%.

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By English region there's a relatively tight range from 71.5% to 75.9%, but that range is slightly puzzling given the overall estimate of 75.9%.

London is a slight outlier at 71.5%, with E Midlands the highest.

2/
By age group, we see the now familiar dips just before second jabs, which is gradually becoming apparent in younger groups (though less prominent than in the higher groups). Over 75 we are now seeing 96%+ results.

Note the fantastic vaccine proportion lines in the 50+ groups!
3/
Read 5 tweets

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